TURKEY-AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN: SUMMIT DATES BEING FINALIZED; DOSTUM ARREST WOULD THREATEN TURKISH-AFGHAN RELATIONS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000767



SIPDIS



SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2018

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, AF, PK, TU

SUBJECT: TURKEY-AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN: SUMMIT DATES BEING

FINALIZED; DOSTUM ARREST WOULD THREATEN TURKISH-AFGHAN

RELATIONS



REF: ANKARA 577



Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d



BABACAN URGES UNITY IN ISLAMABAD

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1. (C) FM Babacan's April 18-19 visit to Pakistan -- his

first and the first FM visit paid to Islamabad since the new

government was formed -- allowed him to get acquainted with

the new political leadership and assure them of Turkey's

continued support in the struggle against terrorism and

extremism, MFA South Asia and Iran DDG Babur Hizlan told us

April 22. The new government faces enormous challenges, and

Babacan reportedly told President Musharraf, PM Gillani, FM

Qureshi, and PPP leader Zardari that a good working

relationship between all government segments, including the

President, is essential to prevail in this struggle. Zardari

reportedly told Babacan, "I'm trying." PML-N leader Sharif,

whose position Hizlan described as pivotal and "more

important than Zardari's," could not meet Babacan in person

as he was in Lahore, but the two spoke by phone. It is

Sharif, said Hizlan, who made election promises concerning

Musharraf and will need to dissuade his constituency from

demanding Musharraf's ouster. Turkey will continue to urge

government and party leaders to seek accommodation with

Musharraf, whom Turkey continues to see as a critical figure

for Pakistan's security and stability.



PAKISTAN AGREES TO TRILATERAL;

DATES BEING SOUGHT

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2. (C) Gillani and Qureshi reportedly told Babacan the GOP

supports the "Ankara Process," but needs time to "get its

house in order" before it can engage fully. The Pakistanis

are not, according to Hizlan, backing away from the

trilateral process; Qureshi declared his support for it in

the joint press conference with Babacan. The Pakistani side

proposed instead to hold the Deputy FM-level trilateral joint

working group (JWG) in May, to be followed by a summit in

June in Turkey. Other demands, including the Paris-hosted

Afghanistan conference, will make it difficult for Turkey to

schedule and prepare for such a summit in June, but dates are

being sought. Noting the scheduling difficulty, Hizlan said

the next summit might have to be pushed off to July. Hizlan

observed that the GOP has been in the process of nominating

representatives to the Pakistan-Afghanistan "mini-jirga,"

which he viewed as positive. "When the two sides can start

talking to each other, there will no longer be a need for a

trilateral," he said.



3. (C) Hizlan said Turkish industry's efforts to develop

Pakistan-Afghanistan economic development and cooperation

remain in train, though he said he'd like to see business

talk less and deliver more. Turkish Economic Policy Research

Group (TEPAV/TOBB) Director Guven Sak was recently in

Islamabad for the third meeting of the Istanbul Forum for

Economic Cooperation among Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan

(the trilateral chambers of commerce initiative that emerged

from the July 2007 JWG meting),and planned to return soon to

Pakistan to visit the Northwest Frontier Region. U.S.

Embassy Islamabad/Consulate General Peshawar support for

Guven's mission would be appreciated, said Hizlan.



ARRESTING DOSTUM THREATENS TURKISH-AFGHAN RELATIONS

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4. (S) FM Babacan planned to discuss Dostum with Secretary

Rice April 22 during the Iraq Neighbors Enlarged Ministerial,

according to Hizlan. Turkey, he said, expects President

Karzai to deliver on his February 16 promise to FM Babacan at

Doha not to arrest Dostum; among senior government officials

a verbal promise is as good as a written promise, Hizlan

stressed. He claimed the Turks do not know why Karzai has

reportedly changed his mind and they hope the information is

incorrect. Based on information the Turks have, arresting

Dostum will result in a "strong risk" for violence in

Afghanistan's northern provinces. Dostum's arrest will also

complicate Turkey-Afghanistan relations; the GOT has so far

not had to defend its Afghanistan involvement to the Turkish

people. That would change when news of the arrest plays out

on TV. Hizlan would not speculate whether the arrest could

lead to force reductions, though he alluded to Afghan Defense

Minister Wardak's comments and foreign media reports that



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Turkish troops will back fill Kabul-based French and other

European troops shifting to combat areas in the south.

Turkey has not yet been consulted on this, he underlined.

Turkish development assistance could be scaled back. MFA --

already dissatisfied with the level of Turkish aid funding

for Afghanistan -- has been petitioning the Finance Ministry

for more resources. This effort would become substantially

harder if Dostum is arrested.



5. (S) The GOT has instructed its Ambassador in Kabul to

seek an appointment with Karzai, but it has not yet been

granted; FM Spanta has reportedly promised to arrange it.

Hizlan noted that Spanta, during his March 18 visit (reftel),

heard quite clearly from Babacan, as well as from President

Gul and PM Erdogan, that arresting Dostum would negatively

impact Turkey-Afghanistan relations; Spanta gave no

indication that Karzai was reconsidering arresting him.

Hizlan underscored his view that the effort against Dostum is

driven by Pashtun nationalism as much as by a desire to

strengthen the central government. The arrest will open deep

fissures between Pashtuns and Turkic-origin Afghans, he

believes. Turks have always viewed Afghans as one brotherly

people, but will inevitably begin to segregate Afghans along

ethnic lines, dividing them between Turks and non-Turks, and

complicating immensely Turkey's Afghanistan policies.



Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at

http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey



WILSON