TURKEY: ERGENEKON INVESTIGATION INEXTRICABLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 000680 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/10/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: ERGENEKON INVESTIGATION INEXTRICABLY TANGLED WITH AKP CLOSURE CASE REF: A. ISTANBUL 51 ¶B. ANKARA 518 ¶C. ANKARA 541 ¶D. ANKARA 563 ¶E. ANKARA 587 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Alleged links between the investigation into the Ergenekon deep state gang (ref A) and the chief public prosecutor's closure case against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) are both difficult to prove and impossible to ignore. Although evidence of a direct link remains largely circumstantial -- and hard to come by in the face of a court-imposed gag order on the Ergenekon investigation -- the progression of each case has clear implications for the other. END SUMMARY. Links between Ergenekon and AKP Closure Case -------------- ¶2. (C) Detention of several prominent leftist ultranationalist figures March 21 -- the first Ergenekon raids since the Chief Public Prosecutor's March 14 indictment against AKP -- unleashed a media furor that unambiguously linked the two as a confrontation between AKP and "Kemalist forces." The closure case was said to be retaliation for the Ergenekon crackdown, and the subsequent high-profile detentions were seen as tit-for-tat for the closure case. Prime Minister Erdogan charged March 17 that the closure case was revenge for uprooting deep state gangs "like Ergenekon" (ref B),although prominent AKPers Abdullatif Sener and Mehmet Saglam privately reject Erdogan's claim. ¶3. (C) "Cumhuriyet" daily is the site of much of the circumstantial evidence, rallying leftist ultranationalists who agree with the chief prosecutor that the time has come to take extra-political measures to stop AKP. Ilhan Selcuk, "Cumhuriyet's" Editor-in-Chief who was detained as Ergenekon's alleged intellectual leader, mentioned in a February editorial, "If a closure case is opened and that triggers an economic crisis, then that will stir Turkey. There may be some hope." A February article by retired General Dogu Silahcioglu -- who has not been implicated in Ergenekon but was deeply involved in the February 28 process that pulled the rug out from under Necmettin Erbakan's Islamist-oriented government in 1997 -- also articulated the need to "push AKP from power" in the fight against political Islam (ref C). Pro-government Yeni Safak columnists point out that former National Security Council members and high-ranking officers have joined the Cumhuriyet Newspaper Foundation administration upon retirement, including Silahcioglu, Aytac Yalman, and Sener Eruygur, who also heads the Ataturkist Thought Association. Yalman and Eruygur were named last spring as coup plotters in Admiral Ornek's leaked diaries -- reportedly detailing plans to oust the AKP government. ¶4. (C) Proponents of a link cite as evidence of complicity between the prosecutor and some Ergenekon suspects media reports that a copy of the AKP closure indictment, obtained from one of the Ergenekon detainees' computers, was dated two days before the indictment was filed. Military and Intelligence Community Complicity? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) "Radikal" daily published on April 5 the "chart and charter" of Ergenekon, based on a 1999 document allegedly seized in the houses of detainees Tuncay Guney, retired Captain Muzaffer Tekin, retired General Veli Kucuk, and retired Major Zekeriya Ozturk. The document, which describes Ergenekon as operating within the armed forces, outlines a rigidly compartmentalized structure of a president, four commands, and two civilian departments. Only the Ergenekon president would be aware of the existence of the Operations command. Techniques outlined in the document include creation of terrorist groups, cooperation with legal or illegal organizations, assassination, disinformation, ANKARA 00000680 002 OF 003 establishing NGOs and media, and illegal fundraising. Internal executions of double agents would be carried out by select military personnel who had served in special operations units. 6.(C/NOFORN) Non-public information obtained during Ergenekon raids also suggests potential military and intelligence community complicity. Embassy Legatt reports the Ankara branch of the Turkish National Police (TNP) has detailed 50 officers to Istanbul to process 1000 CDs obtained during the raid on Labor Party (IP) leader Dogu Perincek's office building. Perincek is imprisoned on charges of being "a high-level administrator in the Ergenekon terrorist organization," and several of his aides have been arrested as well. In addition to IP, the building contains offices of Perincek affiliates, Aydinlik weekly and Ulusal Kanal television. The CDs contained mainly military information, some of which was classified top secret, as well as top secret information from the National Intelligence SIPDIS Organization (MIT). ¶7. (C/NOFORN) According to Legatt's TNP contacts, seized documents reveal evidence of several plots. The linchpin plot appears to be the assassination of Chief Public Prosecutor Abdurrahman Yalcinkaya, author of the AKP closure indictment. His assassination -- much like the 2006 attack on the High Administrative Court (Danistay) that resulted in the death of one justice -- would be attributed to Islamic radicals acting on behalf of AKP. The political and economic crises that could result from this or other similar events could create an opening for second-tier military to launch a coup and "force the retirement" of their seniors. Some of the documents seized reportedly implicate senior officers in the Aegean Army (NFI). Perpetrators of a "colonels' coup," contacts maintain, willingly risk endangering relations with the European Union and US. The US Angle: Guilty on All Counts -------------- ¶8. (C) Commentators on both sides name the US as the behind-the-scenes puppeteer, stemming from a deeply and widely held belief that the US supported Turkey's past military coups. "Cumhuriyet" has regularly pushed the apparently contradictory but also widely-held belief that the US brought AKP to power to showcase Turkey as a moderate Islamic republic, with the Broader Middle East and North Africa initiative (BMENA) as the mechanism for instituting this new order. Echoing the theme, the Chief Prosecutor alleges in the closure case indictment that BMENA and the "Moderate Islam Project" allow AKP to hide its sharia goals behind appeals to democracy, freedom of faith, and freedom of education (ref E). ¶9. (C) Others accuse the US of abandoning its AKP ally. Samil Tayyar, writer of a recent book on Ergenekon, argued in "Star" daily that AKP's failure to support an operation against Iran, refusal to support a Kurdish state in northern Iraq, and failure to furnish combat troops to Afghanistan caused the US to shift to "Plan B," to eliminate AKP. "As it used the PKK as an instrument against Turkey," the US is now using Ergenekon against AKP, Tayyar maintained. He claimed that if AKP cuts a deal with the US, the closure case might evaporate. ¶10. (C/NOFORN) COMMENT. The progression of the Ergenekon and AKP cases is now inextricably tied together. The Ergenekon investigation may implicate high-level officials, both military and civilian; the further it goes, the greater the risk existing confrontation between elected government and the state will intensify. The Ergenekon probe, which has yet to produce an indictment in nine months, remains a test of both the government's (and police) resolve and capacity. TESEV's Foreign Policy Program Director Mensur Akgun worried from the outset about the GOT's ability to find prosecutors and others willing to take on the "deep state" system (ref A). The closure case could well cause TNP's commitment to pursuing Ergenekon to falter; AKP closure could be disastrous for TNP leadership, who are now largely ANKARA 00000680 003 OF 003 pro-AKP, beholden to their political masters, and have stuck their necks out on Ergenekon. END COMMENT. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON