TURKEY ENCOURAGED BY SAAKASHVILI'S ABKHAZ AUTONOMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000643 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SE, EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV GG TU SUBJECT: TURKEY ENCOURAGED BY SAAKASHVILI'S ABKHAZ AUTONOMY PROPOSALS REF: TBILISI 536 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d ¶1. (C) The GOT believes Georgian President Saakashvili's March 28 proposals offering significant autonomy to Abkhazia are important, South Caucasus Section Head Yavuz Kul told us April 2. Turkey remains prepared to play a "facilitating" role with the Abkhaz if Georgia allows it, according to Kul. He emphasized the GOG offer went far beyond past proposals, which had been vague on the autonomy parameters Georgia was prepared to accept. He noted the particular importance of a vice presidential post guaranteed for the Abkhaz and the right to veto any government decision affecting Abkhazia's constitutional status and Abkhaz cultural, language and ethnic rights. The Turks also believe Saakashvili demonstrated seriousness by not pre-conditioning his offer on Abkhaz de facto authorities fulfilling their obligations to facilitate the safe return of Georgian internally displaced persons. ¶2. (C) While maintaining the offer was important, Kul suggested Saakashvili was too obviously trying to influence NATO to extend a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia. Georgia, the Turks believe, will be in an uncomfortable position without the MAP offer and is belatedly -- though correctly -- pursuing non-NATO alternatives for preserving its territorial integrity -- all the more urgent as a result of Russia's decision to suspend CIS sanctions. Kul reminded us that Turkey has urged Georgia not to rely on NATO to resolve its internal problems and has not received a green light from Tbilisi on any Turkish proposals to engage de facto Abkhaz authorities. If the GOG is really serious, he said, it should back up its autonomy offer with concrete confidence building measures, such as pressing ahead with a Trabzon-Sukhumi ferry connection, and look more favorably upon the idea of creating a new, non-Russian channel to engage the Abkhaz people, through Turkey. Turkey has a large and influential ethnic Abkhaz community which it believes could expose the Abkhaz to a new environment and contribute to more realistic thinking on their part. ¶3. (C) Kul also believed the offer could be further strengthened by a clear promise from Tbilisi not to use violence to resolve separatist conflicts, maintaining that a specific agreement will be an Abkhaz pre-condition for future negotiations. The offer to Russia to join an international mediation is an important concession, he said, and could help allay Abkhaz security concerns if the Abkhaz do choose to pursue negotiations, however unlikely in the near-term. With the Abkhaz already having rejected the offer, and Moscow probably opposed, Kul lamented that Saakashvili could not make his offer any sooner. Nonetheless, the Turks think Saakashvili's proposals are sound, and believe that if Georgia can take concrete measures to follow-up on its offer it will have helped itself in terms of future consideration of its NATO and Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON