TURKEY ENCOURAGED BY SAAKASHVILI'S ABKHAZ AUTONOMY

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000643

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/SE, EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV GG TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY ENCOURAGED BY SAAKASHVILI'S ABKHAZ AUTONOMY
PROPOSALS

REF: TBILISI 536

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d


1. (C) The GOT believes Georgian President Saakashvili's
March 28 proposals offering significant autonomy to Abkhazia
are important, South Caucasus Section Head Yavuz Kul told us
April 2. Turkey remains prepared to play a "facilitating"
role with the Abkhaz if Georgia allows it, according to Kul.
He emphasized the GOG offer went far beyond past proposals,
which had been vague on the autonomy parameters Georgia was
prepared to accept. He noted the particular importance of a
vice presidential post guaranteed for the Abkhaz and the
right to veto any government decision affecting Abkhazia's
constitutional status and Abkhaz cultural, language and
ethnic rights. The Turks also believe Saakashvili
demonstrated seriousness by not pre-conditioning his offer on
Abkhaz de facto authorities fulfilling their obligations to
facilitate the safe return of Georgian internally displaced
persons.


2. (C) While maintaining the offer was important, Kul
suggested Saakashvili was too obviously trying to influence
NATO to extend a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia.
Georgia, the Turks believe, will be in an uncomfortable
position without the MAP offer and is belatedly -- though
correctly -- pursuing non-NATO alternatives for preserving
its territorial integrity -- all the more urgent as a result
of Russia's decision to suspend CIS sanctions. Kul reminded
us that Turkey has urged Georgia not to rely on NATO to
resolve its internal problems and has not received a green
light from Tbilisi on any Turkish proposals to engage de
facto Abkhaz authorities. If the GOG is really serious, he
said, it should back up its autonomy offer with concrete
confidence building measures, such as pressing ahead with a
Trabzon-Sukhumi ferry connection, and look more favorably
upon the idea of creating a new, non-Russian channel to
engage the Abkhaz people, through Turkey. Turkey has a large
and influential ethnic Abkhaz community which it believes
could expose the Abkhaz to a new environment and contribute
to more realistic thinking on their part.


3. (C) Kul also believed the offer could be further
strengthened by a clear promise from Tbilisi not to use
violence to resolve separatist conflicts, maintaining that a
specific agreement will be an Abkhaz pre-condition for future
negotiations. The offer to Russia to join an international
mediation is an important concession, he said, and could help
allay Abkhaz security concerns if the Abkhaz do choose to
pursue negotiations, however unlikely in the near-term. With
the Abkhaz already having rejected the offer, and Moscow
probably opposed, Kul lamented that Saakashvili could not
make his offer any sooner. Nonetheless, the Turks think
Saakashvili's proposals are sound, and believe that if
Georgia can take concrete measures to follow-up on its offer
it will have helped itself in terms of future consideration
of its NATO and Euro-Atlantic aspirations.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

WILSON