Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08ANKARA371
2008-02-26 15:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:
TURKEY: DOSTUM UNWELCOME IN TURKEY, STAND-OFF
how-toVZCZCXRO7504 PP RUEHPW DE RUEHAK #0371 0571535 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 261535Z FEB 08 FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5371 INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000371
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/SE, SCA/FO, SCA/A
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: DOSTUM UNWELCOME IN TURKEY, STAND-OFF
CONTINUES
REF: A. KABUL 303
B. ANKARA 217
C. KABUL 399
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000371
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/SE, SCA/FO, SCA/A
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: DOSTUM UNWELCOME IN TURKEY, STAND-OFF
CONTINUES
REF: A. KABUL 303
B. ANKARA 217
C. KABUL 399
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d
1. (C) The Dostum stand-off continues, MFA South Asia DDG
Babur Hizlan told us February 26. Hizlan had phoned us on
February 25 to relate that Dostum wants security guarantees
to leave Kabul and go to the north, and the ten days on the
Chief Prosecutor's order to Dostum to turn himself in or
leave are nearly up. Hizlan described the situation as
tense. Police surround his house in Kabul, but visitors can
come and go. Turkish Ambassador to Afghanistan Tokdemir met
with Dostum February 25 and found him reasonable, coherent,
sober (apparently for several days),and interested in a
peaceful solution.
2. (C) About one hundred Dostum supporters are with him in
Kabul, some armed, Hizlan continued. This group includes a
number of tribal elders from the north who have reportedly
tried to mediate between Dostum and his nemesis, Akbar Bay.
They have supposedly proposed that Bay rescind his legal
complaints against Dostum in exchange for suspending the
legal investigation against Bay for allegedly plotting to
murder Dostum. There has been talk of a jirga. According to
what the Turks are hearing, Bay's supporters, including some
powerful backers, would probably reject any such deal.
3. (C) The Turks now believe Dostum was set up. By
releasing Akbar Bay, Dostum's opponents provoked him and he
fell into the trap, creating a pretext for Karzai to drive
him from Afghanistan. Opposition to Dostum within government
circles can be understood in an ethnic political context,
according to Hizlan. While Dostum has never directly
antagonized Pashtuns, he is an important figure within the
opposition National Front, and elections are next year.
Hizlan said the Turks understand the Afghan Chief Prosecutor,
Minister of Interior, and President Karzai's National
Security Advisor are driving the effort against Dostum. The
GOT is annoyed by these recent developments because it
believed President Karzai and FM Babacan had reached a deal
in Doha, February 16, to allow Dostum to quietly return to
the north.
4. (C) Unlike previous discussions where the Turks were
cagey on whether they would take Dostum, Hizlan was explicit:
Turkey does not want Dostum to come here. Turkey knows from
experience that Dostum would wield more influence over Afghan
politics and Turkish-Afghan relations from Ankara than he
would from inside Afghanistan. His meddling -- which the GOT
would not be able to stop -- would inevitably lead to a
deterioration in Turkey's relations with the Afghan central
government.
5. (C) The Turks know Dostum's health is not good. If he
returns to the north, Hizlan said, the GOT has discussed
sending a medical team from Turkey to Sheberghan to evaluate
and treat him.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey
WILSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/SE, SCA/FO, SCA/A
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL AF TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: DOSTUM UNWELCOME IN TURKEY, STAND-OFF
CONTINUES
REF: A. KABUL 303
B. ANKARA 217
C. KABUL 399
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d
1. (C) The Dostum stand-off continues, MFA South Asia DDG
Babur Hizlan told us February 26. Hizlan had phoned us on
February 25 to relate that Dostum wants security guarantees
to leave Kabul and go to the north, and the ten days on the
Chief Prosecutor's order to Dostum to turn himself in or
leave are nearly up. Hizlan described the situation as
tense. Police surround his house in Kabul, but visitors can
come and go. Turkish Ambassador to Afghanistan Tokdemir met
with Dostum February 25 and found him reasonable, coherent,
sober (apparently for several days),and interested in a
peaceful solution.
2. (C) About one hundred Dostum supporters are with him in
Kabul, some armed, Hizlan continued. This group includes a
number of tribal elders from the north who have reportedly
tried to mediate between Dostum and his nemesis, Akbar Bay.
They have supposedly proposed that Bay rescind his legal
complaints against Dostum in exchange for suspending the
legal investigation against Bay for allegedly plotting to
murder Dostum. There has been talk of a jirga. According to
what the Turks are hearing, Bay's supporters, including some
powerful backers, would probably reject any such deal.
3. (C) The Turks now believe Dostum was set up. By
releasing Akbar Bay, Dostum's opponents provoked him and he
fell into the trap, creating a pretext for Karzai to drive
him from Afghanistan. Opposition to Dostum within government
circles can be understood in an ethnic political context,
according to Hizlan. While Dostum has never directly
antagonized Pashtuns, he is an important figure within the
opposition National Front, and elections are next year.
Hizlan said the Turks understand the Afghan Chief Prosecutor,
Minister of Interior, and President Karzai's National
Security Advisor are driving the effort against Dostum. The
GOT is annoyed by these recent developments because it
believed President Karzai and FM Babacan had reached a deal
in Doha, February 16, to allow Dostum to quietly return to
the north.
4. (C) Unlike previous discussions where the Turks were
cagey on whether they would take Dostum, Hizlan was explicit:
Turkey does not want Dostum to come here. Turkey knows from
experience that Dostum would wield more influence over Afghan
politics and Turkish-Afghan relations from Ankara than he
would from inside Afghanistan. His meddling -- which the GOT
would not be able to stop -- would inevitably lead to a
deterioration in Turkey's relations with the Afghan central
government.
5. (C) The Turks know Dostum's health is not good. If he
returns to the north, Hizlan said, the GOT has discussed
sending a medical team from Turkey to Sheberghan to evaluate
and treat him.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey
WILSON