GOT PLEASANTLY SURPRISED BY CYPRIOT ELECTION FIRST

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000338 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV TU CY SUBJECT: GOT PLEASANTLY SURPRISED BY CYPRIOT ELECTION FIRST ROUND; PREPARED TO NEGOTIATE Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: GOT officials expressed pleasant surprise at the unexpected outcome of the first round of Cyprus' presidential election. Regardless of the final outcome, Turkey remains prepared to press for resumption of final settlement negotiations as soon as possible. The Turks are hopeful the election result indicates a shift in Greek Cypriot public opinion regarding such negotiations. They are supportive of steps "TRNC President" Talat may be considering as confidence building measures to help smooth the way toward a resumption of talks. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) MFA Cyprus Department Head Can Oztas (please protect) told us GOT officials are pleasantly surprised that ROC President Papadopoulos was eliminated in the first round of Cyprus' presidential election. Oztas admitted the scenarios for which they had prepared all included Papadopoulos at least making it to the run-off. The GOT was and remains prepared to make a push for resumption of final settlement negotiations regardless of who wins the election. With Kasoulides and Christofias getting through, the Turks are much more optimistic that such talks will occur and may even have a chance to succeed. ¶3. (C) MFA has prepared a public statement congratulating the victor of the run-off and setting forth the GOT intent to press ahead on talks. Per Oztas, senior-most MFA officials have not yet decided whether to release the statement, but he believes they will. We encouraged him to do so, noting that a statement reflecting the GOT's positive outlook would convey Turkish seriousness and sincerity. We asked that the GOT consider a unilateral gesture to underscore that point further, such as opening a port/airport to ROC vessels, but Oztas said that is unlikely. He did not dismiss the possibility of the GOT making a unilateral gesture at some point, but said it will not happen until a viable process has begun and there is a clear indication that the Greek Cypriots are engaging with a view toward reaching a final solution. ¶4. (C) There is unanimity within the GOT on moving forward with serious negotiations, Oztas said. He believes there remains sufficient political will in Ankara that if a settlement is within reach, PM Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) government will seek to seize it. Much will depend on how talks progress. Oztas noted MFA officials have, over the past few months, reviewed the final Annan Plan, dividing it up into three sections. They believe a large portion remains non-controversial and both sides should be able quickly to agree to retain that. Other aspects are no longer valid and will need to be discarded or renegotiated. The remainder represents the most difficult aspects which will form the crux of renewed negotiations. For the Turks, certain key points remain non-negotiable, including that the end result will be a "new state" based on a bicommunal, bizonal federation in which the Turkish Cypriots have the ability to govern their own affairs -- not be a situation in which the ROC simply subsumes the Turkish half of the island. ¶5. (C) Oztas said the GOT supports efforts of "TRNC President" Talat to move forward with confidence building measures that can help pave the way for a successful beginning of negotiations. Oztas speculated that, as an example, the Ledra Street crossing could be opened fairly quickly. ¶6. (C) There are mixed views as to which of the two remaining ROC presidential candidates might be better able to negotiate a final settlement, per Oztas. However, MFA U/S Apakan thinks Kasoulides can strike a deal that, in the end, will gain approval of a majority of Greek Cypriots. Oztas noted that with the plethora of experienced Cyprus-hands in charge at MFA -- U/S Apakan, Deputy U/S Berk, and others -- the right people are in place from the GOT perspective to push this process forward to the end. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON