TURKEY PREPARED TO RECOGNIZE KOSOVAR INDEPENDENCE,

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 000290 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/SE, EUR/SCE, AND EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/15/2018 TAGS: PREL TU RU GG YI AA SUBJECT: TURKEY PREPARED TO RECOGNIZE KOSOVAR INDEPENDENCE, AND WILL SEEK TO CALM MOSCOW REF: A. STATE 14840 ¶B. STATE 13716 ¶C. ANKARA 236 Classified By: PolCouns Janice G. Weiner for reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The GOT will recognize an independent Kosovo soon after the Quint and the U.S. GOT officials remain uncertain whether Kosovars will declare independence over the weekend, or merely announce a date on which they will proclaim their independence. Regardless, they are expecting an announcement on February 17 at 16:00 local time (14:00 GMT) and hope to learn of Quint and U.S. reaction soon thereafter. The Turks agree that Kosovo is not a precedent for other independence movements, like Abkhazia. They believe the Russians are not serious about recognition of Abkhazian independence, but are using threats in an attempt to deter the U.S. and others from moving forward with recognition of Kosovo. FM Babacan will visit Moscow February 19 and plans to use his meetings there to urge calm and counsel against Russian overreaction. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) DCM delivered Ref A points to MFA Deputy U/S for Central Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, and East Asia Unal Cevikoz February 15 regarding Russian threats to recognize an independent Abkhazia. Cevikoz agreed that Kosovo is not a precedent for Abkhazia and described Putin's threats as empty and merely an attempt to deter recognition of Kosovo. Noting the effort Russia undertook to secure the right of Sochi to host the 2014 Winter Olympics, as well as Russia's ongoing problems with its own independence movements in the Caucasus, Cevikoz said he does not think it is realistic that Putin would seriously consider recognition of Abkhazian independence. FM Babacan will be in Moscow on February 19 and will use the visit to speak frankly with the Russians, urging them to avoid overreaction on Kosovo. The Turks will also seek to reassure the Georgians. ¶3. (C) In a separate February 15 meeting, MFA DDG for Balkans Hasan Asan reiterated to us Turkey's intention to recognize independent Kosovo shortly after the Quint and the United States (Refs B and C). Asan said the Turks expect an announcement around 1600 local time (1400 GMT) on February 17 from Pristina. What they don't know is whether the announcement will be a formal declaration of independence, or an announcement of an intention to proclaim independence on a specific later date (o/a March 9). Asan said senior GOT officials, including PM Erdogan and FM Babacan, are anxious to offer Turkish recognition of Kosovo, adding that MFA has been urging that they hold back until just after the Quint and the U.S. announce recognition to avoid the worst of the expected Serb backlash. The Serbian ambassador in Ankara has already packed his bags and is preparing to depart for an indefinite period following announcement of Turkish recognition. Asan said the GOT has urged the Serbs not to make the Ambassador's recall a long-term endeavor, based on the Turks' own experience that lack of ground truth makes it increasingly difficult to draw accurate conclusions and make policy decisions. ¶4. (C) Asan showed us a photo of what he believes will likely become the new Kosovo flag, an outline of Kosovo in gold, set on a blue background with six white stars arching above. Nine tons of flags are being produced by a company in Istanbul and await delivery to Pristina. Turkish Airlines is prepared to make the delivery free of charge when given the go-ahead by the Kosovars. Asan said he would be "camping out" in the ministry all weekend and will be looking forward to hearing from us on U.S. intentions. We pledged to pass on our message of recognition to Asan and the GOT upon receipt from the Department. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON