TURKEY/ISRAEL/SYRIA: OLMERT REMAINS POSITIVE ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002174 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/SE, NEA/IPA, NEA/ELA E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/24/2018 TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV PTER IS SY TU SUBJECT: TURKEY/ISRAEL/SYRIA: OLMERT REMAINS POSITIVE ON TURKISH-MEDIATED TALKS, BUT TIME RUNNING OUT REF: TEL AVIV 02853 Classified By: Acting POL Counselor Chris Krafft, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Israeli PM Olmert visited Ankara December 22 in what was billed a "farewell" call, meeting privately with PM Erdogan (we believe PM foreign policy advisor Davutoglu translated) and, with delegations, President Gul. Syria and Gaza dominated the agenda. According to Israeli Embassy contacts, Olmert would like to see concrete results on Syria before stepping down, but whether that will translate into a fifth round of indirect Turkish-mediated talks, direct Israel-Syria talks, or a declaration of intent to hold direct talks is uncertain; a declaration of intent would at least allow Turkey to achieve a result in the GOT mediation effort. PM Erdogan conveyed to Olmert Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh's urgent request that Israel lift its blockade on Gaza and halt military operations. Olmert told Erdogan that Israel cannot remain indifferent to ongoing rocket attacks. Both sides expressed their support for Palestinian President Abbas. END SUMMARY. OLMERT STILL HOPES FOR BREAKTHROUGH WITH SYRIA... -------------- ¶2. (C) Israeli Embassy A/DCM and Press Spokesman Amit Zarouk (PROTECT) told us December 24 that PM Olmert wants "concrete and far-reaching results" on the Turkish-mediated Syria track before stepping down as PM in February. While Zarouk does not believe a comprehensive deal can be put in front of the Israeli public before Olmert steps down (there is not enough time and it would be perceived cynically by the Israeli public),Olmert believes progress is still possible. Zarouk said he believes the Turks have been putting considerable pressure on Syrian President Assad to negotiate, evident by Assad's December 22 remarks in Damascus that direct peace talks with Israel are possible, though not specifying a timeframe. Looking ahead, Zarouk foresaw two possible developments before February 10: a fifth round of trilateral talks or a statement of intent to hold direct talks. Direct Israel-Syria talks are possible, he said, but highly unlikely. The Turks will be lobbying the Syrians and Israelis hard for at least a statement of intent to hold direct talks, which would indicate that the Turkish-mediated indirect talks produced a concrete result. Davutoglu told the Ambassador December 23 that Olmert wants a fifth round of Turkish-mediated talks with the Syrians, but is under pressure by the Israeli opposition not to make any commitments. The Syrians may not be on board regardless, Davutoglu suggested. ¶3. (C) Zarouk said the election of Netanyahu could impact negatively Turkish-Israeli bilateral relations, given Netanyahu's opposition to the Syrian talks, but reminded us that FM Livni is hardly enthusiastic about the Syrian track either. The Turks, he believes, wish to create a circumstance in which it would be hard for a future Israeli PM to abandon the effort. Zarouk surmised that, after a period following the Israeli elections, the new PM will want to try to make progress on either the Syrian or Palestinian track, and the latter is the more difficult. Meeting with us December 24, MFA Israel/Palestine Section Head Rauf Denktas (grandson of the former Turkish-Cypriot leader) said that Turkey has offered to mediate at the request of the two parties. If either Syria or Israel wish to discontinue the process, it is their prerogative. He also maintained that strong relations with Israel are a constant, no matter which party is in power in Israel or Turkey. Many analysts had feared that relations with Israel would deteriorate under the current ruling Islamic-oriented Justice and Development Party (AKP),but bilateral relations have never been stronger, according to Denktas. ...TELLS ERDOGAN ISRAEL CANNOT REMAIN INDIFFERENT TO HAMAS ROCKET ATTACKS -------------- ¶4. (C) Hamas leader Haniyeh reportedly called Erodgan ahead of the Olmert visit and asked him to urge Israel to lift the blockade of Gaza and halt military operations in the area. According to Zarouk, Olmert told Erdogan that the GOI cannot remain indifferent to ongoing rocket attacks, but promised to avoid a humanitarian tragedy. Asked if Erdogan or Gul conveyed an understanding of the Israeli position, particularly given Turkey's own experience with cross-border attacks emanating from Iraq, Zarouk said GOT expressions of empathy usually only last a few days after a rocket attack before tilting away again from Israel. Gul, said Zarouk is far more balanced than Erdogan on this issue. Turkey's UNSC membership will test Turkey's ability to at least remain ANKARA 00002174 002 OF 002 balanced on Gaza. Israel supported publicly Turkey's candidacy. MFA Deputy U/S for Middle East (and former Ambassador to Israel) Sinirlioglu has sought to assure Israel that it will have a friend in Turkey on the UNSC. Zarouk said that remains to be seen. GOT ASKS FOR ISRAELI SUPPORT TO PREVENT "GENOCIDE" RECOGNITION -------------- ¶5. (C) According to Zarouk, GOT leaders, as in the past, solicited Israeli support for their efforts to prevent international recognition of an Armenian genocide. PRESS RELEASE: ERDOGAN-OLMERT MEETING (AS RELEASED) -------------- -------------- ¶6. (U) BEGIN TEXT: 22.12.2008/ANKARA The two Prime Ministers just finished very long, interesting and fruitful discussions. The meeting started as a four eyes meeting, followed by a long dinner and a restricted meeting. The two Prime Ministers discussed bilateral issues, the situation in Gaza, the prospects of the cease fire and the peace process with the Palestinians. They also discussed in length the Syrian track and ways to make progress in the negotiations on the track with the help of Turkey. The PM of Israel thanked the Turkish PM for his contribution o the peace process in the Middle East on both tracks and on the efforts to enhance the bilateral relationship between the two countries. END TEXT. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey Jeffrey