UNSYG SPECIAL ADVISOR DOWNER TALKS TURKEY ON CYPRUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 002138

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU CY
SUBJECT: UNSYG SPECIAL ADVISOR DOWNER TALKS TURKEY ON CYPRUS

Classified By: Ambassador James Jeffrey for reasons 1.4(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: UNSYG Special Advisor on Cyprus Alexander
Downer told the Ambassador December 17 he:
-- hopes to learn Turkish bottom lines and who speaks for
the GOT on Cyprus policy;
- depends on the U.S. and U.K. to wield influence on the
process;
- foresees referenda by the end of 2009;
- needs the Turkish General Staff (TGS) to agree to an
eventual cut in Turkish troops on the island down to the 650;
- believes he may be able to sell the Greek Cypriots on a
deal if they get what they're looking for on property;
- worries about the "hard-line" nature of MFA U/S Apakan,
but welcomed the Ambassador,s depiction of Apakan as
someone open to a solution;
- has rented a home on the island and plans to spend
more time there in 2009.
END SUMMARY


2. (C) Visiting Ankara for the second time since being
named UNSYG Ban Ki-moon's Special Advisor on Cyprus last
July, Downer said he is hoping to open a channel of
communication with Ankara to increase the flow of
information. During his first visit to Ankara in
September, Downer said Apakan had struck him as a
hard-liner and someone unlikely to display much in the way
of flexibility. However, he had been surprised when Apakan
told him in September that Turkey had only one true
red-line issue with regard to Cyprus -- the continuation of
Turkey's role as a guarantor of Cyprus' security under the
Treaty of Guarantee. Ambassador and DCM characterized
Apakan as a tough negotiator but one who, in our view,
genuinely seeks a fair and equitable settlement of the
Cyprus issue. Apakan has the respect and gravitas to be
able to bring along enough of Turkey,s hard-liners to
make a negotiated settlement "sellable" here.


3. (C) Downer expressed hope Apakan's description of
Ankara's sole red-line was correct and meant Turkey would
still be willing to withdraw troops down to the 650 allowed
for under the Treaty of Alliance and as TGS had agreed to
as part of the Annan Plan. If so, he thinks he can sell a
deal to the Greek Cypriots provided they get more of what
they are looking for on property. Downer admitted he is
struggling with how to gain Greek Cypriot buy-in and
indicated he will need to figure out a way to bridge the
yawning gap on property and governance issues. He plans to
offer three workable alternatives for the Presidency in a
proposal being drafted by a Canadian expert on
constitutional and governance matters as a way to help
address differences over governance. Downer expressed some
skepticism concerning the Annan Plan as a basis for the
current round of negotiations, noting it is far too
complicated and lengthy and, in his view, not "workable" --
especially as a document to be presented to voters in a
referendum. He added that Greek Cypriots will need major
changes in the Annan Plan to sell it to their electorate.


4. (C) Ambassador noted this opening that has allowed for
resumption of negotiations will not last long and said the
parties will require a strong push to come to an agreement
in 2009 before events conspire to once again consign Cyprus
to an uncertain, divided future. He urged Downer to
provide that push and assured him of strong USG support for
his efforts. The UN, and thus Downer, is the only game in
town; we will support, but the UN/Downer needs to be active
and creative. Downer said he has rented a home on the
island in anticipation of spending more time there in

2009. He is aiming to reach a conclusion that would allow
dual referenda in November or December 2009. He added he
is counting on USG and HMG support and assistance to bring
along both negotiating parties, as well as Turkey, to a
common understanding on Cyprus' future. Characterizing ROC
President Christofias as somewhat "anti-American" and
noting his tendency to "swear in private about both the
U.S. and the UK," Downer admitted that it will not be easy
to gain Greek Cypriot buy-in either. He lamented the
ultranationalist and anti-Turkish rhetoric and atmosphere
surrounding the funeral of former ROC President
Papadopoulos earlier in the week, which he described as
"extremely ugly."

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

Jeffrey