TURKEY'S RULING AKP: LET THE ELECTION GAMES BEGIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002052 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/25/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL TU SUBJECT: TURKEY'S RULING AKP: LET THE ELECTION GAMES BEGIN REF: ANKARA 2040 Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel J. O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment: Facing its first nationwide electoral test since its landslide victory in the July 2007 parliamentary elections, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is sparing no expense in taking organizational steps to help secure victory. AKP Deputy Chairman for Electoral Affairs Necati Cetinkaya, an AKP veteran who helped orchestrate all of the party's past victories, told us AKP is currently training 1.4 million "ballot box observers" and vetting potential candidates for mayorships, provincial general assemblies, and municipal councils. AKP's seasonal distributions of coal and foodstuffs to poor areas are also, not coincidentally, in full swing. These extraordinary efforts belie AKP's claim that it does not fear a loss in votes from a sagging economy, allegations of AKP corruption, and opposition efforts to peel off segments of the AKP vote. Turkey's most politically savvy party understands that four months is an eternity in Turkish politics, and is leaving nothing to chance. End summary and comment. -------------- AKP's Election Preparations in Full Swing -------------- ¶2. (C) AKP Deputy Chairman for Electoral Affairs Necati Cetinkaya told us November 24 that the party is undertaking its largest organizational project to date to accomplish its goal of sweeping March 2009 local elections. Cetinkaya, a party veteran who headed AKP's election preparations in 2002, 2004, and 2007, said the party views local elections as a referendum on its performance. Taking no chances, AKP's more than 800 subprovincial offices are now training nine party members to work at every polling station as ballot box observers -- a total of approximately 1.4 million observers, according to Cetinkaya. These observers' main responsibility will be to look for procedural flaws and to assist voters who ask them questions about how to identify an AKP candidate on the ballot. Cetinkaya said training ballot box observers had been one tool that helped the party capture a greater percentage of the vote in successive elections: 34.5 percent of the vote in 2002 national elections; 42 percent in 2004 local elections; and 47 percent in 2007 national elections. He said AKP's goal in March 2009 is to win 50 percent of the vote. -------------- Candidates Key To Electoral Success -------------- ¶3. (C) Cetinkaya told us that selecting good candidates would help AKP win "target cities" that it lost in 2004 local elections: Diyarbakir, Izmir, Trabzon, Eskisehir, and Mersin. The party's highly organized vetting structure will ensure AKP chooses candidates who are "welcomed by the people, loyal to the party, honest, and hard-working," Cetinkaya said. He explained that the selection process formally began November 10 at the local level, with each sub-provincial office accepting applications from potential candidates, and then vetting the applicants through interviews, background checks, and by conducting local polls. After completing vetting in early December, local offices will rank its candidate preferences, and send recommendation to AKP's Ankara headquarters. At headquarters, twelve committees that are each headed by a deputy party chairman and responsible for a specific geographic area, will review the recommendations and evaluate poll data, and then recommend the top three candidates for each post to AKP's Supreme Election Commission. ¶4. (C) Cetinkaya said the Supreme Election Commission, chaired by PM Erdogan and composed of Cetinkaya and a handful of yet-to-be-named senior party officials, will select final candidates in late December. PM Erdogan will then travel throughout the country to announce candidates and kick off their campaigns. Cetinkaya said AKP is determined to stick by this schedule so that all candidates will have sufficient time to campaign, noting that at this critical time, the party "values every single hour." Cetinkaya told us that the 12 regional election committees will assure that PM Erdogan ANKARA 00002052 002 OF 002 and senior AKP officials make a steady stream of visits to key cities throughout the campaign. He noted that PM Erdogan had visited all but a handful of provinces in 2004 local elections and would attempt to visit all provinces for March 2009 elections. In critical cities such as Izmir and Diyarbakir, PM Erdogan would plug for candidates by announcing major public works projects, according to Cetinkaya. -------------- Undeterred by Opposition Tactics -------------- ¶5. (C) Cetinkaya told us he is confident that voters will reject recent attempts by main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and opposition Nationalist Action Party (MHP) to reach out to conservative Sunni Muslims and Alevis (reftel). He said CHP and MHP are engaging in "populist electoral tactics" but have no true desire to resolve the concerns of these segments of the electorate. Evincing some electioneering of his own, Cetinkaya told us that the opposition's tactics contrast with AKP's "principled positions designed to further Turkish democracy and dialogue." He emphasized that AKP had never strayed from its founding commitment to, "oppose nationalism based on racism, regionalism, or religion." Voters had shown at the ballot box in 2002, 2004, and 2007 that they recognized AKP's commitment to these principles, and on election day in March would again show that they "see through" other parties' insincerity. ¶6. (C) Cetinkaya also dismissed the prospect that a sagging economy and allegations of AKP corruption would hurt the party in local elections. He said PM Erdogan and his senior economic advisors are actively engaged in ensuring Turkey is insulated to the extent possible from the international financial crisis. (COMMENT: This is wishful thinking to the extreme and we are hearing many jeers of disbelief from business and economic circles. END COMMENT) Regarding corruption, he told us that the voters would prove that they understand the allegations against AKP are "baseless." -------------- AKP's Voter Aid -------------- ¶7. (C) AKP is ramping up its efforts to deliver municipal aid to attract votes. "Hurriyet" reported November 21 that the Ankara municipality is distributing free food and coal packages three times during 2008 (an increase from past twice yearly distributions). The municipality has distributed 70,000 tons of coal since the beginning of 2008 and the figure is expected to exceed 100,000 tons by the end of 2008. Murat Dogru, a senior advisor to AKP Ankara Mayor Melih Gokcek, denied that effort is designed to attract votes. He said the distributions of coal, bread, honey, tuna, potatoes, and cleaning products are done to help Ankara's poor who are struggling during "these difficult economic times." Dogru acknowledged that the distributions could help AKP's electoral success because rising gas prices make many recipients incredibly appreciative of the coal. (COMMENT: There is a growing backlash from political observers who contend that AKP is more focused on such distribution efforts than on reinvigorating the economy to create jobs.) 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