TURKEY: PM ERDOGAN'S PASSAGE TO INDIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002012

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE AND SCA/INS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2018
TAGS: ETRD PGOV PREL TU IN AF PK
SUBJECT: TURKEY: PM ERDOGAN'S PASSAGE TO INDIA

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Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady, for reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Eight years after the last visit to New
Delhi by a Turkish Government leader, Prime Minister Erdogan
departs November 20 for a four-day trip to India. Both the
MFA and Indian Embassy in Ankara describe the visit as
"overdue," but emphasize that it reflects a healthy bilateral
rapport far removed from the Cold War era. Erdogan's trip
will focus on commercial-trade issues, and his delegation
includes more than 80 businessmen. Trade levels already
exceed $3 billion annually, a five-fold increase from 2002,
but are imbalanced in India's favor. The MFA told us that
Pakistan will lead the list of regional topics during the
official meetings. This trip is likely to play well in the
Turkish media, reinforcing ruling Justice and Development
Party (AKP) themes that Turkey NOW performs on a global
stage. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Prime Minister Erdogan's delegation will include some
80 business representatives, as well as a dozen journalists
and an equal number of MFA and Prime Ministry officials,
according to the MFA's Babur Hizlan, deputy director general
for South Asia. The emphasis during the visit will be
weighted toward trade and commerce, and Erdogan will spend a
full day in Bangalore, where he will meet the governor and
the provincial prime minister, and also visit Cyber City,
reportedly considered the ultra high technology area of the
province, as well as the Space Exploration Center. The last
visit to India by a Turkish Prime Minister (Ecevit) occurred
in 2000, and both the MFA and the Indian Embassy in Ankara
describe Erdogan's trip as "overdue."


3. (C) Erdogan will spend four days in India, arriving late
on November 20 and departing in the evening on November 24.
The schedule includes separate meetings with the India
president, prime minister, foreign minister and the head of
the main opposition party. On November 23, Erdogan will
travel to Agra.


4. (C) The MFA told us that they had hoped to sign an
extended protocol on counterterrorism that would bolster
cooperation between the two Interior Ministries. However,
all such agreements must be approved by the Indian cabinet,
which requires nine working days -- a deadline that could not
be met, according to the MFA. A proposal to initial this
agreement had been rejected as inappropriate for the prime
ministers' level. Similarly a three-year Cultural Agreement,
based on the 1951 umbrella pact, did not win cabinet approval
in time so must be signed later.


5. (C) Hizlan told us that this visit builds on FM Babacan's
trip to India in February, and Trade Minister Tuzmen's visit
to India in March. The MFA hopes that President Gul will
travel to India early next year. The Indian Embassy's
charge, Sanjay Verma, was resoundingly upbeat, noting that
Turkey and India have "hardly any political differences," and
that they enjoy full relations on numerous fronts, from
commercial to cultural. Erdogan's visit, he said,
"reinforces that we need to be together."


6. (C) Both Verma and Hizlan underscored that trade
relations have blossomed over the last five years: from $600
million annually in 2003 to $2.7 billion in 2007, and
expected to reach $3.2 billion this year. The trade balance
is heavily in India's favor, Hizlan said, so the Turkish
delegation members hope to press their hosts for new business
contracts to restore some equilibrium. Verma said the main
trade sectors are in cotton, natural stone, gems, organic
chemicals, and textile machinery.


7. (C) Hizlan said the issue of Pakistan will head the list
of regional topics discussed during the official meetings.
He noted that Turkey's strong relationship with Pakistan "is
a given," but that this will not hinder Turkey from
establishing strong ties to India. Both Turkey and India are
worried about increasing instability in Pakistan, he said.
Verma echoed these sentiments, but underscored that Pakistan
and India have established their own productive dialogue and
do not see the need for Turkey to play middleman. Hizlan
said Erdogan will also probe his Indian hosts on how they
evaluate Afghanistan, and whether joint construction projects
could be developed.

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8. (C) COMMENT: These upbeat assessments are an intriguing
contrast to the Cold War era, when India was perceived by
Turkey as firmly in the Soviet Union's inner circle of
Non-Aligned Movement allies and Ankara and New Delhi kept
their distance. News coverage of Erdogan's India travels is
likely to play well in Turkey, reinforcing the ruling Justice
and Development Party (AKP) themes that portray Turkey as a
global player with substantial influence abroad.

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