TURKEY: MFA ASSERTS EU MOMENTUM CONTINUES, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001967 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2018 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL EUN TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: MFA ASSERTS EU MOMENTUM CONTINUES, BUT WON'T SOON INCREASE REF: ANKARA 1937 Classified By: Acting POL Counselor Christopher Krafft, reasons 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) MFA European Union Political Affairs Section Head Yaprak Alp told us that the pace of EU reform in Turkey has not slowed. As the focus shifts from controversial political reforms to more technical aspects, Turkey's EU accession bid simply is no longer front page news and thus many believe the process has stalled. Turkish delegations regularly travel to Brussels and negotiations continue at the working level. Contradicting the sentiment of the European Commission and those who follow Turkey's EU accession process closely, Alp noted that a majority of the most controversial issues, such as the Foundations Law, Article 301, and reforms related to Turkey's Southeast are, for the most part, done. (Comment: While the GOT may have met the EU reforms as required on paper, implementation is far from conclusion.) Furthermore, the GOT has prepared the strategic proposals on judicial reform and presented the drafts to Brussels, which Alp predicted would soon be finalized. Although not standard practice to acknowledge unresolved issues in the progress report, the MFA was pleased the European Commission included complimentary language on judicial reform. ¶2. (C) The Turkish public largely ignored the report due to the growing focus on technical issues and GOT management of the message, claimed Alp. As with the most recent assessment, she explained the MFA drafts its reaction statement to highlight praise and down play criticism. Regardless, the Turkish people are fatigued by negative comments from individual European nations, namely France, and perceived game playing by Cyprus. Alp said she did not foresee a further drop-off in support amongst Turks for EU accession unless the enlargement paragraph in the European Council's December statement is reminiscent the 2006 version, which resulted in the freezing of 8 chapters. In addition, if progress is not made next year toward a comprehensive settlement on Cyprus, any ROC attempt to inject language into the December 2009 Council of Europe statement will be a "potential iceberg." ¶3. (C) Alp characterized the French EU Presidency as having been largely "neutral" thus far with regard to Turkish accession. The GOT expects the French Government to try to open two chapters (freedom of movement of capital and information society and media) in December. She lamented that Turkey has met many of the energy chapter's criteria, but Cyprus continues to block its opening. The MFA is optimistic about the upcoming Czech Republic Presidency as the GOC is perceived to be both pro-enlargement and pro-Turkey. Alp added the Czech Republic began engaging MFA more than a year ago on EU-related issues specifically. The GOC is reportedly aiming to open the transportation and social policy and employment empowerment chapters during its term. ¶4. (C) Comment: Alp may be correct that accession-related activities within the GOT continue apace, with staff-level interaction with the EC fairly constant and screening of various chapters of the aquis ongoing. However, to say work on the major reforms is done is wishful thinking on Alp's part. Despite her optimism, the Justice and Development Party-led (AKP) GOT has laid down a marker that EU accession-related reforms will not pick up again until after the March 2009 local elections. FM Babacan warned EU ambassadors October 28 that Turkey would continue working on the Third National Program, but the elections would be the GOT's top priority. AKP enthusiasm for EU accession continues to wane as it focuses its attentions not only on its electoral prospects, but also on regional peace facilitation efforts (Israel/Syria; Lebanon; Armenia/Azerbaijan) and its upcoming tenure as a voting UNSC member. As public apathy continues, the impetus for increased action on Turkey's EU venture will need to come from traditional advocates, including Turkey's business community and other disparate groups ranging from ethnic and religious minorities to elements of the GOT bureaucracy. Without it, the GOT will likely continue on what has become a well-worn path almost since formal negotiations between ANKARA 00001967 002 OF 002 Ankara and Brussels began, tackling non-contentious technical issues and ignoring the tough political reforms. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON