TURKEY LIKELY TO SUPPORT CANCELLATION OF ANNUAL

S E C R E T ANKARA 001747 SIPDIS DEPT. FOR EUR/SE E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2028 TAGS: PREL PM CY TU SUBJECT: TURKEY LIKELY TO SUPPORT CANCELLATION OF ANNUAL MILITARY EXERCISES IN CYPRUS; BUT FORMAL DECISION PENDING REF: STATE 106964 Classified By: POL Counselor Daniel O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (S) Turkey is likely to support the call for cancellation of the annual Turkey-Turkish Cypriot military exercise Toros, according to MFA DDG for Northeast Mediterranean Kerim Uras, though a formal decision has yet to be taken. Uras told us the afternoon of October 8 that senior MFA colleagues were at Turkish General Staff (TGS) headquarters at the same time coordinating the decision on the issue. Pointing out that Turkey had been a strong proponent of the mutual moratorium on mil exercises on the island until the Greek Cypriots unilaterally abrogated the agreement by carrying out Nikiforos in 2005, Uras said he did not see any reason why the GOT would not want to resume it. He cautioned, however, that he could not authoritatively provide a positive response to Christofias' call, in support of our call (reftel) and that of HMG, until it was fully cleared throughout the GOT. Uras also said that when a decision is made, the Turks will want to make sure that it is Talat who makes the announcement. ¶2. (C) Uras said the GOT and the Turkish Cypriots are a bit discouraged at the tactics adopted by Christofias and the Greek Cypriots, which do not lend themselves to moving ahead quickly toward a final settlement. He lamented what he described as the constant "negativity" and "Turkey-bashing" in which the Greek Cypriots have engaged in recent months, citing negative G/C comments at UNGA, using negative influence in Strasbourg on ECHR cases, and blocking the inclusion of experts with any involvement in the Annan Plan negotiations from participating in a newly comprised EU panel of experts on Cyprus (e.g., Frank Hoffmeister). However, Uras said Ankara's plan is to continue to give Talat the space he needs to negotiate a deal, and to remain in a supportive role. He described the G/C side as a "reluctant seller," equating Nicosia to a carpet dealer who sets an initial (high) price as a final, take-it or leave-it offer. He described the Greek Cypriot approach to negotiations as being "top-down," with a focus on trying to solve all the major issues at once, making it difficult to achieve forward momentum anywhere. Meanwhile, he claimed Talat is taking more of a "bottom-up" approach in which much of the underbrush can be quickly agreed to by the two sides, creating a sense that a deal is achievable with sufficient compromise from both sides. He asked that the U.S. urge Christofias to take a more constructive approach so that momentum can be maintained. ¶3. (S) Uras described UNSRG Downer as "pragmatic" and they have no real complaints about his efforts to date. He noted that Downer, like anyone new in such a position, is constantly advocating "new approaches" and counseling against "clinging to old formulae." However, Uras pointed out, it seems clear that after 40 years of Cyprob discussions, the superstructure of a settlement acceptable to all sides is largely known to everyone. We just need to figure out a way to put a facade on it that can gain public acceptance on both sides. Uras expressed concern about recent statements by HMG officials that have given Ankara the impression London no longer supports the long-standing principle of political equality between the two communities in Cyprus. He noted several comments by senior British officials to Turkish counterparts in recent weeks to the effect that the ROC is an EU member state, has the upper hand, and is a reality with which the Turks will have to deal; that Turkish Cypriots have equality as citizens of a member state, etc. The effect has been to raise GOT fears that the EU and others are willing to allow Nicosia to play a delaying game with a view to ratcheting up pressure on Turkey as 2009 progresses. Uras expressed the hope that the USG still supports the concept of political equality between the two communities, which we assured him we do. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON