ALL GAIN, NO PAIN: TURKEY'S KYOTO PROTOCOL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001477 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2018 TAGS: ENGR SENV EAGR TU SUBJECT: ALL GAIN, NO PAIN: TURKEY'S KYOTO PROTOCOL ACCESSION STRATEGY Classified By: ECONOMIC COUNSELOR DALE EPPLER FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) MFA Department head for Environment Nursel Berberoglu said August 13 Turkey is ready to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. By delaying until now, Turkey believes it can ratify without incurring any binding obligation to reduce emissions (despite being an Annex 1 country),and still participate fully in negotiations on a post-Kyoto framework. MFA has long argued that Turkey needs to join Kyoto to advance its EU accession prospects and to protect its interests as the EU designed an emissions trading system and set emission reduction rules that will apply to the Turkish industry. The GOT also expects the EU to provide substantial new technical and project assistance after it ratifies. Ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) MP Reha Denemec confirmed that Kyoto ratification would be high on the Parliament's agenda when it reconvenes in October, adding he expects it to pass without opposition. He views the Protocol as part of Turkey's EU accession and as opening the way to additional EU funds. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Berberoglu said that the Ministry of Energy and the State Planning Organization (SPO) had long opposed Turkey joining Kyoto. MFA led the fight for ratification, arguing that Turkey needed "a seat at the table" in international climate change costs, and the only way to obtain one was by ratifying the Protocol. ¶3. (C) In addition, Kyoto and climate change had become issues in Turkey's EU accession. EU member governments regularly raised climate change in bilateral discussions, and the European Commission had been pressuring Turkey to present a climate change strategy and emissions control plan. MFA also argued that Turkey needed to be part of the discussion within the EU on an emissions trading system and emission reduction rules that will directly affect Turkish industry. ¶4. (C) According to Berberoglu, Prime Minister Erdogan decided early in 2008 that Turkey would ratify Kyoto, but left open the question of when to join. MFA was able to get Energy Ministry and SPO agreement by showing that despite being an Annex 1 county, Turkey could ratify in July 2008 without incurring any binding emissions reduction obligation (since there is too little time left under the Protocol); GOT would have a seat at the table during EU negotiations affecting Turkish interests; and the EU would provide "substantial" additional technical and project assistance to Turkey and Turkish industry. They had expected the Parliament to ratify Kyoto in July, but it was still pending when it adjourned. Although Parliament remained in session until shortly after the Constitutional Court's July 30 decision in the AKP closure case, the Protocol did not come to the agenda. Berberoglu doubted the delay would affect the GOT's plans to participate in EU negotiations. ¶5. (C) Denemec confirmed to us on August 13 that ratifying the Kyoto Protocol would be high on Parliament's agenda when it reconvenes in October. He expects the ratification to pass without any real opposition, arguing Turkey must ratify the Protocol as part of its EU accession process. There is public support for action on climate change, he said, and the EU will provide new assistance funds to Turkish business in exchange. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey SILLIMAN