TURKEY: MIND THE GAP: PM ERDOGAN'S SOUTHEAST

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001403 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/14/2017 TAGS: PGOV ECON TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: MIND THE GAP: PM ERDOGAN'S SOUTHEAST PROPOSAL REF: A. REF A: ANKARA 996 ¶B. REF B: ANKARA 1091 Classified By: Political Counselor Daniel J. O'Grady for reasons 1.4(b) ,(d) ¶1. (C) Summary and comment. The Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) had new life amid renewed doubts. PM Erdogan recently announced the GOT plans to dedicate $21.5 billion to complete the project by 2012 (Ref A). An ambitious $32 billion multi-sector regional development scheme harnessing the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, GAP will benefit nine provinces constituting nearly 10 percent of Turkish territory and population in a predominantly Kurdish region. Erdogan's GAP Action Plan seeks to irrigate one million hectares, complete several dam and hydroelectric power (HEP) projects, and support regional economic, social, infrastructure, and institutional development. While Erdogan and supporters are confident the government can deliver on this significant project, southeastern opposition leaders remain skeptical of the PM's sincerity and question whether political motivations are the engine behind the proposal. Erdogan has five years to prove his government's commitment to GAP is genuine rather than opportunistic. End summary and comment. Better Late Than Never? -------------- ¶2. (U) Erdogan's May 27 Diyarbakir speech revived interest in the 30-year old GAP initiative designed to improve living conditions in Turkey's impoverished Southeast. As Today's Zaman columnist Andrew Finkel notes, "the people of Turkey's Southeast must be greeting the government's proposals to throw USD 20 billion into the development of their region with equal measures of cynicism and hope." After 30 years of slow progress, the size and scope of the GOT's Action Plan and Erdogan's announcement of significant political commitment reassure many in the region that the latest proposal may have a positive impact on their lives. Sabah columnist Abdurrahman Yildirim warns the government must keep its promises and complete the project as scheduled "in order not to cause further feelings of disappointment in the region." PM Erdogan answered this charge when announcing the new plan, proclaiming "What we are announcing here today is not a report or a project or a case file. It is an absolute plan of action." ¶3. (C) Opposition leaders criticized Erdogan's GAP Action Plan, arguing that while the development projects outlined in the proposal are important and badly needed in the region, they are years overdue. Mesut Deger, Republican People's Party (CHP)-Diyarbakir MP, told us GAP could offer a "rebirth" for the economy of the region. Deger lamented the lack of progress on GAP over the last six years of AKP rule, noting that in 2004 AKP proposed a parliamentary motion to close the GAP Administration. While Democratic Party (DP) leader Salim Ensarioglu acknowledged the GAP's previous accomplishments and predicted a realized proposal would be "the beginning of the state embracing its people," he doubts the Action Plan is serious. Former Cizre mayor and Motherland (ANAP) MP Hasim Hasimi agreed. Hasimi called the GAP Action Plan "a good step," noting previous dam construction under GAP protects the region from drought and flooding. He pointed out that villagers' requests from 30 or 40 years ago for water, electricity, and highways remain unmet. Hasimi declared people in the region are tired of being consulted; they want results. Hasimi was skeptical Erdogan's proposal would last longer than previous governments' initiatives in the southeast, which he described as unfocused and sporadic. ¶4. (C) Serafettin Elci, a leader in pro-Kurdish Participatory Democracy Party (KADEP),called the GAP Action Plan "important for regional economic problems," but was cynical of the GOT's commitment. Elci noted PM Erdogan committed to the needs of the Southeast in a 2005 speech in Diyarbakir, but "didn't follow up." AKP-Diyarbakir MP Abdurrahman Kurt admitted shortcomings of previous GAP development efforts, but said earlier critics were convinced when the GOT delivered irrigation, electricity, and roads to the region. Kurt predicted, "We will be able to see in five ANKARA 00001403 002 OF 002 years if the Action Plan has been implemented". If the government reneges on its promise, the voters can hold them responsible. Timing is Everything? -------------- ¶5. (C) Contacts criticized Erdogan's Action Plan as an effort to project political strength, rather than genuinely address the needs of southeast residents. "Bloomberg News", noting the looming constitutional court case against the PM and AKP, concluded "Erdogan needs a boost." Ensarioglu agreed, telling us the catalyst for the Action Plan was the Constitutional Court, not the needs of the southeast. With political calculations, not an understanding of the region's needs driving the proposal, Ensarioglu called the plan insincere for political ends. Kurt defended the Action Plan, noting extensive consultation with residents and officials from the Southeast ensured the PM's proposal addressed the needs of the region. Opposition leaders, Kurt noted, were unable to question the widespread improvement the region will experience as the Action Plan is implemented. ¶6. (C) "Der Spiegel" also suggests political factors led to the timing of the Action Plan's announcement, reporting "the PM is hoping that the additional investment will produce ballot-box successes in municipal elections next March." Diyarbakir Mayor Osman Baydemir and Democratic Society Party (DTP)-Mus MP Sirri Sakik agreed with this diagnosis, calling the Action Plan part of an election campaign. Hasimi told us the plan is an attempt to demonstrate the necessity of Erdogan and the AKP; without them the region would descend into "chaos." The political options for the region swing between AKP, which Hashimi says has no serious projects, and DTP, which has no projects. Finkel concurred, stating, "AKP is now presenting itself as a force which is able to transfer resources from the central government to the region - something the DTP will never have clout to do." Critics: An Economic Solution for a Political Problem -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) When announcing the Action Plan, Erdogan promised, "With this project the socioeconomic wounds that have been exploited by separatist terrorism... will be completely healed." However, with nearly 60 percent of the cost of GAP already invested, academic Hisyar Ozsoy notes that Turkey's fight against violent Kurdish separatists continues. Hasankeyf Mayor Abdulvahap Kusen observed, "If GAP was really improving the region, we should have already seen its impact. We still haven't seen an improvement here compared to other regions in Turkey." Ozsoy argues, and Director General of the Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research (SETA) Ibrahim Kalin agrees that the Kurdish issue is an "ethno-nationalist conflict" demanding political and cultural reforms; GOT efforts to resolve it solely with socio-economic measures are "more fantasy than reality." Opposition leaders from the region, including Hasimi and Sakik, share this criticism, calling the economic rather than political focus of government efforts "dangerous." Full-time Kurdish-language broadcasts on state-owned Turkish Radio and Television Cooperation (TRT),proposed by the PM as part of his southeastern initiatives, if realized, may be a significant step to addressing this demand (Ref B). Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON