TURKEY: GUL-ALIYEV/SAAKASHVILI BILATERALS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001372 SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR DAS BRYZA, EUR/SE, EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV ELTN ETRD ENRG EPET AJ AM GG TX TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: GUL-ALIYEV/SAAKASHVILI BILATERALS REF: A. ASHGABAT 964 ¶B. ANKARA 1326 Classified By: DCM Doug Silliman, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Energy issues and Azerbaijani-Turkmen relations monopolized President Gul's bilateral with Azerbaijani President Aliyev, at the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars (BTK) railway groundbreaking ceremony in Kars, July 24, MFA U/S Cevikoz told the DCM July 29. Gul also had an unexceptional discussion with Georgian President Saakashvili focusing on transporation infrastructure. The GOT is concerned that Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan relations are back to square one due to the Caspian gunboat incidents, and Turkey is once again offering to facilitate dialogue and cooperation to open a route for Turkmen gas to flow westward and contribute to a southern gas corridor to Europe. Gul continues to mull Armenian President Sargsyan's invitation to Yerevan; Turkish domestic developments will largely determine whether the visit takes place. END SUMMARY. GEORGIA: INFRASTRUCTURE DISCUSSED -------------- ¶2. (C) Gul and Saakashvili focused on infrastructure during their bilateral on the margins of the BTK groundbreaking ceremony. The two sides, according to Cevikoz, noted BTK's importance and expressed hope that it and the Turkey-Georgia joint-use Batumi airport would serve as examples of cooperation for other countries in the region. They discussed the need for additional infrastructure and investment, including a third border crossing, at Cildir, to accommodate more trade. Bilateral trade has mushroomed, and a substantial portion of Turkey's trade with Central Asian region passes through Georgia. Moreover, Cevikoz estimated indirect Turkey-Armenia trade through Georgia to be valued at about $160 million and growing. Cevikoz noted that a possible opening of Turkey's border with Armenia could hurt Georgia economically, even as it would benefit Armenia with lower transport fees. AZERBAIJAN: COMPLAINTS ABOUT TURKMENISTAN; CONCERNED ABOUT TURKEY-ARMENIA RELATIONS -------------- ¶3. (C) Aliyev had reported positively to the Turks on Berdimuhamedov's May visit to Baku, but the April gunboat incident in the Caspian appears to have set relations "back to square one" (see ref A). Gul discussed with Aliyev linking Turkmen and Azerbaijani offshore platforms, enabling the export of Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan and Turkey. Turkey will continue to press Turkmenistan to commit gas to Turkey, building, it believes, on a pledge by former Turkmen President Niyazov. ¶4. (C) The Aliyev-Berdimuhamedov feud threatens the success of the next Turkic summit, a major Turkish priority, scheduled tentatively to be held in Baku, September 5. Turkey had sought Berdimuhamedov's attendance eagerly, but he is now likely to downgrade Turkmenistan's participation. Uzbek President Karimov will not attend either, as in previous years. ARMENIA-TURKEY RAPPROCHEMENT -------------- ¶5. (C) Cevikoz speculated that Baku will be none-too-pleased if Gul accepts Armenian President Sargsyan's invitation to attend the September 6 Turkey-Armenia World Cup qualifier in Yerevan, the very day after the summit in Baku. Cevikoz said Gul is still considering the invitation and suggested he might accept. If he does, he will do so in a way that "puts the ball back in Armenia's court." Domestic political developments in Turkey over the next few weeks will largely determine whether Gul will be able to go to Yerevan. ¶6. (C) Cevikoz noted Turkey's satisfaction with the ongoing Turkey-Armenia talks in Switzerland, commending Armenia's constructiveness. He reiterated Turkey's opposition to pre-conditions for normalizing diplomatic relations: he thinks the Armenians understand. The border cannot be opened overnight, he said, but the overall approach is constructive and the two sides might be close to a "serious development." Cevikoz said Gul intended to send a positive message to Armenia by visiting Ani July 23 -- the first by a Turkish president to the Armenian border, where he inspected ongoing ANKARA 00001372 002 OF 002 archaeological work (ref B). Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON