TURKEY: SOUTHEAST LEADERS SAY AKP CLOSURE UNLIKELY TO SPUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001352 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL 07/27/2018 TAGS: KDEM PGOV TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: SOUTHEAST LEADERS SAY AKP CLOSURE UNLIKELY TO SPUR PUBLIC UNREST Classified by: Adana Principal Officer Eric Green for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: During recent visits to the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) stronghold in Eastern Anatolia, contacts from diverse political persuasions told us AKP's closure would set back Turkey's democratization and send the wrong message to the international community. Citing Turks' habit of respecting state authority, they did not believe closure of the party would spark any significant instability, let alone violence. AKP critics believe deteriorating economic conditions should eventually turn voters away from the ruling party, but lamented that opposition parties, particularly the Republican People's Party (CHP),appear too incompetent to take advantage. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On the Anatolian plateau northeast of Adana, AKP reigns supreme. Its share of the vote in last July's national elections ranged from 65% to 68% in Kahramanmaras, Adiyaman and Malatya, three cities we recently visited. Matching the mood of many AKPers at the party's national headquarters, local leaders appear confident they can weather any storm given the party's popularity and organizational prowess. In a June 24 meeting with the Ambassador, Kahramanmaras Mayor Mustafa Poyraz was unfazed by the political turbulence in Ankara over the AKP closure case, saying he is focused on improving municipal services such as water supply and providing help for pensioners. He was elected with 66% of the vote in 2004 and was confident of his chances in next March's local election since no competitors have yet emerged. AKP is wisely investing in its future by cultivating young politicians and sending promising leaders to workshops for training, he noted. ¶3. (C) Kahramanmaras University Rector Nafi Baytorun attributed AKP's landslide victory in Kahramanmaras to the lack of an alternative, blaming the CHP and far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) for bungling on substance and lacking grassroots campaign skills to attract and maintain their traditional voter bases. Whatever the reason, he said closing AKP would be harmful for Turkey's international reputation. He observed that Turks are rather lethargic when it comes to protesting political and economic issues; the impossibly high gas prices (well over $11 a gallon),rising electricity costs, and high inflation are nott impetus enough to raise a collective shout. Baytorun surmised that, if AKP were shut down, Turks would accept this development passively and wait for the next political drama to unfold. ¶4. (C) Adiyaman Deputy Mayor Salih Dogan agreed that, whether AKP is closed or not, there is a system in place that citizens should respect. Given the people's reverence for the state, Dogan did not expect protests, nor were extra security provisions being taken to prepare for such a prospect. The concurrent judicial proceedings on the AKP closure and Ergenekon crime network cases should demonstrate the integrity and impartiality of the Turkish judicial system, he said, as the cases arguably represent opposing political influences. Adiyaman Bar Association President Nazim Tektas agreed that most Turks see parties as transient actors who come and go, while the state remains. They are accustomed to parties dissolving and rising again under a different banner. He criticized this deference to the state as leading to a passive acceptance of human rights violations, adding that some alleged Ergenekon violations, like government eavesdropping and a denial of access to defense counsel, are not isolated problems and also occur in Adiyaman province. ¶5. (C) Journalists in Malatya stressed the AKP closure case is really a struggle for political and ideological dominance. The head of the local Gunes TV station, Turan Ozkan, noted all parties in the conflict are Muslims so it is overly simplistic to term the struggle as one between secularists and believers. The Journalists Association President, Haydar Karaduman, added that the media (sic) perpetuates these misperceptions by focusing on irrelevancies rather than the underlying fight over political power. Another journalist added that AKP benefits from and is skillful at maneuvering media attention to the trivial, portraying themselves as innocent defenders of piety and democracy. ¶6. (C) Alevi leader Esref Dogan criticized AKP leaders for exaggerating the party's popularity to intimidate opposition viewpoints. Claiming that up to 34% of Malatya province is comprised of Turkmen and Kurdish Alevis, Dogan said over 20% of Alevis abstained from voting in the July 2007 elections to protest the incompetence of CHP leader Deniz Baykal. Dogan said PM Erdogan's refusal to grant Alevi houses of worship formal status under the Directorate of Religious Affairs is continuing to alienate the Alevi population, but complained there is still no effective opposition party offering a credible alternative to AKP. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: The indifference of citizens in AKP's heartland to the party's possible closure reflects a number of cross-cutting tendencies. On one hand, AKP leaders understand that their roots of loyalty are strong and will be transferred easily to a newly formed party if necessary. But the passivity also shows Turks' continued tolerance for a democracy that features heavy-handed guidance by an unelected establishment as well as widespread human rights violations - tendencies that many warn will affect Turkey's standing in the world and its EU aspirations. END COMMENT. WILSON