DAS BRYZA DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES WITH TURKISH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001277 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017 TAGS: PREL ENRG IZ AM CY TU SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES WITH TURKISH ADVISOR DAVUTOGLU Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4(b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan's chief foreign policy advisor Ahmet Davutoglu told visiting DAS Matt Bryza July 11 that Erdogan's July 10 Baghdad meetings were a "good start." The Turks discussed alternate sources of gas for the Nabucco pipeline with Iraqi officials, acknowledging Azeri gas alone would not be sufficient. Turkey's Strategic Agreement with Iraq, which specifically refers to energy cooperation, proposes the two prime ministers jointly chair regular meetings to include both countries' Interior, Trade and Energy Ministers, he said. Resolving Nagorno-Karabakh would also improve the energy flow and positively change the balance of power in the Caucasus, Davutoglu told Bryza. Improving Turkey's relations with Armenia is also linked to real progress on N-K, he said. On Cyprus, Davutoglu said a clear process with concrete action, not ambiguous words, is essential. End Summary. Iraq -------------- ¶2. (C) Erdogan's July 10 Baghdad meetings were positive, Davutoglu said, particularly compared with the atmosphere between the two countries just 4-5 months ago. The two sides are preparing a comprehensive agreement to include regular meetings co-chaired by Erdogan and PM Maliki and attended by Ministers of Interior, Trade and Energy. Nechirvan Barzani was invited to attend the meetings with Erdogan but could not return from the US in time, according to Davutoglu. "He sent me a message thanking me for the invitation. Our relations with Nechirvan are very good; they would be good with Masood too if he didn't make unfortunate statements. We can't invite him under these circumstances." Energy -------------- ¶3. (C) Turkey's strategic aim is to have a gas pipeline, parallel to the Kirkuk-Ceyhan oil pipeline, that will link to Turkey's gas grid and Nabucco, Davutoglu stated. Iraqi gas will be essential to Nabucco's success because Azeri resources are insufficient, he said, noting the issue was discussed during Erdogan's meeting with the Iraqis. Bryza expressed concern with Energy Minister Guler's comments during July 11 meetings with Bryza and Special Energy Envoy ¶C. Boyden Gray that forecast very little Azeri gas left over for Nabucco or Europe after Turkey fills its domestic needs (8-9 bcl); such remarks would undermine confidence in Nabucco's viability. Additional gas for Nabucco is essential to meet the dual goals of ensuring Nabucco proceeds and meeting Turkey's internal needs, Bryza stressed. While Turkmen gas is key in the long-run, Azerbaijan is the key partner whose gas is required to launch the Southern Corridor, he added. Davutolgu emphasized the importance of the US and Turkey working together on energy issues, from production to end-user phase. Armenia/N-K -------------- ¶4. (C) Additional progress toward resolving the NK conflict and Armenian efforts to improve relations with Azerbaijan will also make the energy situation more efficient, Davutoglu said. Resolving that conflict will change the balance of power and release Armenia from Russia's control. Bryza reported negotiations between the two countries are making progress, with Presidents Aliyev and Kocharian moderating their demands and gradually establishing personal trust. Improved Armenian-Azeri relations opens the way for improving Turkish-Armenian relations, he said, noting positive signs from the Armenian president that he is serious about normalizing relations with Turkey. Yerevan and Baku are discussing an arrangement by which Armenia would withdraw all its troops from all seven territories, allowing Azeris to return, Bryza reported. A corridor with undefined status would link Armenia to N-K. The deal would result in no change in N-K's status but would allow for a possible vote on status in the future. Davutoglu confirmed Turkey's commitment to help, adding the balance of power in the Caucasus would be more manageable and a new strategic competition between NATO and Russia would be avoided. "We need a constructive vision for the Caucasus," he said. ¶5. (C) Acknowledging President Sargsian's invitation to President Gul to the September 6 World Cup qualifying match in Yerevan as a positive sign, Davutolgu said a Gul visit ANKARA 00001277 002 OF 002 will be difficult for Turkey while Nagorno-Karabakh remains "under invasion." "We may win Armenia but we cannot lose Azerbaijan," he stated. Bryza said he understood the GOT is willing to improve relations with Armenia even if it makes the Azeris uncomfortable. A "real process" and confidence-building measures behind the N-K negotiations will help Turkey by giving the Azeris a guarantee their territory will be protected, Davutoglu responded. Cyprus -------------- ¶6. (C) Turkey fully supports "TRNC President" Talat and affords him maneuver room, but Greek Cypriot statements about the talks are impacting the process, Davutoglu said. Bryza commented that Greek Cypriot President Christofias has shown courage in moving forward, despite severe domestic criticism for going too far, too fast. The US hopes the two sides will be able to announce the start of direct talks at their July 25 meeting. "We want to see light at the end of the tunnel, not an agreement with an ambiguous future," Davutoglu emphasized. Turkey expects concrete action not vague words, or the only solution will be Northern Cyprus's independence. "We are disappointed that we haven't seen more support," he said, adding that Ankara cannot accept Turkish Cypriots being controlled by Greek Cypriots. ¶7. (C) On resolving the impasse over opening ports to Greek Cypriot vessels, Davutoglu stressed the EU will have to be creative in finding a solution if they want Turkey as a member. He admitted December 2009 will be a vital point in the accession process but noted it is a deadline for the EU, US, international community and Cyprus more than for Turkey. He complained France has acted carelessly, citing French efforts to develop a military relationship with the Greek Cypriots and a new policy of refusing visas for Turkish diplomats at France's embassy in Nicosia as evidence. Cyprus is important to Turkey because of energy in Ceyhan, trade in Mersin and tourism in Antalya, he explained. "We will never allow the eastern Mediterranean to be closed to the Turkish Navy or our commercial ships or give control of those waters to the Greek Cypriots," he stated. The French may not understand that Turkey needs Cyprus to project its regional power. ¶8. (U) This cable has been cleared by DAS Bryza. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON