IF TURKEY'S RULING PARTY IS CLOSED, WHAT THEN?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001247

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2017
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: IF TURKEY'S RULING PARTY IS CLOSED, WHAT THEN?

Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4(b),(d)


1. (SBU) Summary. The chance Turkey's Constitutional Court
will close the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has
Turks checking their constitutions to plan their post-closure
moves. Even those betting the Court will penalize the party
with something short of closure are preparing for the worst
case scenario of a ban against the party, PM ERDOGAN and
other AKPers. Turkey has been through similar upheavals
before; in the event of closure, the procedure for a
relatively smooth and rapid turnover is largely prescribed by
the constitution. End summary.


2. (U) If the Court decides to close AKP, the ban takes
effect once the ruling is published in the Official Gazette.
The party dissolves and all AKP MPs become independent
deputies. AKPers can form a new party by filing a petition
with the Interior Ministry stating the party's name and
founding members; if at least 20 MPs join, they can establish
a new parliamentary group in parliament (i.e. "AKP2"). Even
if all 38 AKP MPs named in the closure indictment are banned
-- an unlikely scenario -- AKP2 would retain 301 seats, 25
more than required to form a single-party government. The
new party would need to appear sufficiently distinct from AKP
or run the risk of being banned for violating the spirit of
the Court's decision. If some AKP deputies decline to join
the new party, either remaining as independents or joining
other parties, AKP2 might not retain the 276 seats needed for
a majority government.


3. (U) If ERDOGAN and others are banned from party politics,
they will lose their seats immediately -- and their
parliamentary immunity -- creating vacancies. ERDOGAN would
step down as prime minister, an acting PM would be designated
either by ERDOGAN or President Gul (the process is unclear),
and Gul would hand the mandate to form a new government to a
sitting MP. FM Babacan, Justice Minister Sahin,
Transportation Minister Yildirim, Deputy PM Cicek and Deputy
PM Hayati Yazici, a close ERDOGAN ally, are among the rumored
candidates. The current cabinet would likely remain in place
until a new government is established. Once the president
approves the PM-designate's Council of Ministers (cabinet),
the proposed government's program must be read to parliament
within a week, followed by debate and a vote of confidence -
a maximum 12-day process if all goes smoothly.


4. (SBU) In the unlikely event the PM-designate fails to get
a vote of confidence, Gul would ask another MP to try. If,
after 45 days, a new government has not been established, the
president could call for general elections. Election
logistics are handled by the Supreme Election Board, which
indicated prior to July 2007 elections that 90 days are
generally needed to organize parliamentary elections. Local
elections, now scheduled for March 2009, would likely be
moved up in the event early parliamentary elections are
called. AKP MP Mevlut Cavusoglu and other AKPers are
confident the party would win even more votes than in 2007 if
AKP is banned and new elections held. Others are not so sure.


5. (U) Parliament, also constitutionally authorized to call
for early elections, could do so in order for ERDOGAN to
regain a seat as an independent, according to contacts. AKP
could also orchestrate a by-election, but this approach is
considered vulnerable to challenge by those who argue a ban
prohibits ERDOGAN and other banned MPs from serving in the
current 23rd parliament. If re-elected, ERDOGAN would be
prevented from heading a political party but Gul could hand
him the mandate to form a government as an independent
deputy. With several court cases pending against him,
Erdogan may be anxious to regain his parliamentary immunity.
His opponents would likely try to block any attempts to
return him to parliament.


6. (U) Many doubt the Court will ban President Gul, also
named in the indictment, because the constitution clearly
states the president can only be removed for treason. Should
the Court nevertheless decide to ban Gul, he would likely be
forced to resign. Speaker Koksal Toptan would step in as
acting president until elections could be organized. Since
switching from parliamentary to direct presidential elections
pursuant to a referendum last October, little progress has
been made on the technicalities of conducting direct
elections.

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7. (C) By a normal reading of the constitution, party members
cannot be banned unless the party is banned as well.
Contacts agree, however, that this Court has indulged in
creative interpretations of other constitutional provisions;
the judges could well find a way to ban ERDOGAN and other
AKPers without banning the party itself. Though the
indictment mentions banning members from party politics for
five years, those who contend Erdogan's banishment is the
real objective behind the closure case speculate the Court
may impose a permanent ban on the PM. ERDOGAN would remain a
popular figure but AKP MP Murat Mercan told us holding AKPers
together under a less charismatic leader would be
challenging. If ERDOGAN were permanently banned, Mercan
suggested President Gul would resign to become chair of the
new party, with the Speaker becoming acting president. Gul,
who resigned his parliamentary seat upon taking the
presidency, could not be appointed prime minister but would
be accepted as chairman by AKP MPs and grass-roots
supporters. Mercan felt confident Gul would assume the role,
if needed: "He knows the party's future is more important
than the presidency."


8. (C) Comment. We still wager that it is more likely the
Court will ban AKP and remove ERDOGAN than not, but we do not
expect the Court to remove Gul. We also judge it unlikely
Gul would leave the presidency if ERDOGAN is banned, but not
impossible in the strange universe of Turkish politics.
Whatever the outcome, most observers here expect the Court to
act within the next 4 to 5 weeks. End comment.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

WILSON