TURKEY EVALUATING SARGSIAN'S INVITATION TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001241

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR DAS BRYZA, EUR/SE, EUR/CARC; NSC FOR MARIA GERMANO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV AM GA TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY EVALUATING SARGSIAN'S INVITATION TO
PRESIDENT GUL; SEES HOT MONTHS AHEAD IN GEORGIA

REF: YEREVAN 536

Classified By: Political Counselor Daniel O'Grady, reasons 1.4 b,d

ARMENIAN INVITATION TO PRESIDENT GUL
--------------

1. (C) Turkey has received the written invitation to
President Gul from Armenian President to attend the
Turkey-Armenia World Cup qualification match in Yerevan,
September 9 (reftel),according to MFA South Caucasus and
Central Asia DDG Umit Yardim. Yardim told us that the
invitation was received last week, transmitted via the
Turkish Embassy in Tbilisi.


2. (C) Asked how Turkey intends to respond to the
invitation, Yardim said it was difficult to say. Noting
Turkey's domestic political uncertainties and regional
volatility, two months, he said, "is a long time." But he
said Turkey is evaluating the invitation. Emphasizing that
his views are only personal, Yardim noted a sense of
pessimism about the invitation. In Sargsian's presentations,
Turkey continues to detect a link between opening the border
and dialogue with Ankara. The Turks, he suggested, would
have had an easier time accepting this invitation without any
such linkages or pre-conditions, real or implied.


3. (C) Turkish-Armenian relations, he emphasized, are a
complex set of elements, of which the border is only one.
Opening the border does not capture all these elements (e.g.,
Nagorno-Karabakh or genocide recognition). Yardim also noted
the incongruity between Sargsian's invitation and senior
Armenian officials' pledge to redouble efforts to pursue
international genocide recognition. He further noted that
Turkey senses that Sargsian is under political pressure
domestically and internationally, mentioning the potential
for suspension of Armenia's Council of Europe Parliamentary
Assembly voting rights. (COMMENT: Absent diplomatic
relations, Turkey has a limited perspective on Armenian
domestic affairs which may lead it to conclude Sargsian's
political staying power is more limited than it might
actually be. END COMMENT.)

GEORGIA: HEIGHTENED TENSIONS PREDICTED
--------------

4. (C) Yardim restated Turkey's fence-sitting position on
MAP: it will join any consensus that emerges in NATO on
extending MAP to Georgia and Ukraine. The months leading up
to the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in December, where a
first assessment on the two countries' progress will be made,
could see heightened tensions, Yardim surmised. Georgian
President Saakashvili has accepted an invitation, along with
Azerbaijani President Aliyev, to visit Kars, Turkey on July
26-27 for a ground-breaking ceremony on the Turkish leg of
the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. It is possible Saakashvili
will also travel to Ankara for consultations, Yardim said,
but no such meetings have yet been planned.


5. (C) Turkey continues to believe that it can play a role in
helping to open a window for Abkhazia to the West, Yardim
said, for example by establishing direct transit between
Sukhumi and Trabzon. All sides, he said, have been generally
positive on the idea, but have objected to certain
modalities. He said the GOT would welcome consultation with
us on further exploring such ideas. Asked if Turkey has any
views on who might be responsible for recent violence in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Yardim suggested all sides could
be, and would not rule out Abkhaz and South Ossetian
separatists, Russia or Georgian extremists.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey

WILSON