TURKEY URGING PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN DIALOGUE AND

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001166 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV AF PK TU SUBJECT: TURKEY URGING PAKISTAN/AFGHANISTAN DIALOGUE AND MODERATION; ENDORSES "DEMOCRATIC" JUNBESH CONGRESS REF: KABUL 1504 ANKARA 00001166 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 b, d ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Turkish President Gul plans to call Afghan President Karzai, Pakistani President Musharraf and Pakistani PM Gillani to urge them to commit to talks in Ankara in September, per a Turkish MFA contact. The Turks believe Karzai would accept, and even welcome, Gillani's participation in the next "Ankara summit," and that co-participation by Gillani and Musharraf would boost Musharraf's presidential legitimacy and help facilitate government unity and cooperation. GOT leaders will meet with People's Party (PPP) leader Zardari on June 26, when he stops in Turkey en route to Socialist International meetings in Athens. Turkey is satisfied with the recent Junbesh party congress in Afghanistan (reftel),describing Sayed Norullah's election as party president as democratic and a first in Afghanistan. If the central government's case against Dostum is closed, Turkey continues to believe he will go north and a gradual leadership transition will take place in the party. Our MFA contact reminded us that Dostum has pledged his loyalty to Afghanistan. If Dostum is given cause to support Karzai, the Turks are confident the case against Dostum will drop. END SUMMARY. TURKEY SEEKS TO CALM PAKISTAN-AFGHANISTAN TENSIONS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Afghan government threats to pursue insurgents into Pakistan are an affront to Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity, MFA South Asia Section Head Ilhan Sener told us June 23. Gul plans to call Presidents Karzai and Musharraf and Pakistani PM Gillani to urge them to commit to participating in the next Ankara Summit, in September and to cease criticizing one another until then. The GOT, he said, believes Karzai will welcome Gillani's participation and that Musharraf will accept it, as he has confidence in Turkey. PM Erdogan's and then-President Sezer's co-participation in last year's summit creates a precedent for Gillani and Musharraf to attend together; the GOT believes doing so will project a sense of government unity and cooperation, which Pakistan continues to lack. Pakistani FM Qureshi and Turkish FM Babacan discussed having the PMs at the table when they talked in Kampala, June 20, and Qureshi's reaction was reportedly favorable. Sener noted recent meetings with the British Foreign Office's South Asia Affairs Director, who reportedly predicted Musharraf would not last until September. Sener reminded that Musharraf has been counted out before, and that Turkey still believes he can play a crucial role in the GOP's fight against terror and extremism. ¶3. (C) Sener informed us that PPP leader Zardari plans to stop in Turkey June 26 en route to Socialist International meetings in Athens. While the visit remains confidential for security reasons, Zardari will be received as a head of government and will meet with PM Erdogan and President Gul, along with Education Minister Celik, who co-chairs the Pakistan-Turkey Joint Economic Commission. MFA is also trying to arrange a meeting between Zardari and opposition Republican People's Party Chairman Deniz Baykal, whose party is also a Socialist International member. This meeting might be held in Athens if it cannot be arranged in Ankara. Following Ankara, Zardari -- who will reportedly be traveling with his sisters and daughters -- will call on former Turkish PM Tansu Ciller and the family of former Turkish President Turgut Ozal in Istanbul, and be hosted for dinner by Turkish Chambers and Commodity Exchanges Union (TOBB) representatives. TOBB has sought to develop joint Pakistan-Afghanistan economic development projects in the border regions. TURKEY OPTIMISTIC ON AFGHANISTAN; ENDORSES "JUNBESH" PARTY CONGRESS RESULTS -------------- ¶4. (C) Turkey is more optimistic about Afghanistan following the Paris conference, according to Sener. The conference focused world attention, however briefly, on Afghanistan's reconstruction and development, where Turkey believes the focus should remain if the international community is to be ANKARA 00001166 002.2 OF 002 successful. Turkey's $100 million pledge over three years was an effective increase over its 2006 London Conference pledge ($100 million over five years). He emphasized Turkey's continued commitment to Afghan development, noting the schools and hospitals Turkey has constructed and the university of medicine it is developing in Kabul. The GOT will also seek to provide additional scholarships to Afghans to study in Turkey. ¶5. (S) Turkey is satisfied with the election of Sayed Norullah as Junbesh party president during the June 17-19 party congress, according to Sener. Norullah, he said, is not Dostum's puppet, but has his trust. The Turks expect Norullah to come into his own as a leader and for Dostum gradually to fade into the background. The GOT maintains the case against Dostum is political; arresting him (after Turkey asked Karzai not to) would create a political crisis in Afghanistan and seriously impact Ankara's friendship with Kabul. Sener noted that an Akbar Bay associate reportedly contacted the Turkish Embassy in Kabul, but the Turks would not talk to him. Turkish intelligence, he told us, knows Bay has spent thirteen years in U.S. prisons and is a narcotics smuggler. The GOT believes that if the central government closes the case against Dostum, he will go north. Sener reminded that Dostum had written a letter to Karzai pledging his commitment and readiness to serve Afghanistan, and passed a copy of Dostum's written message to the Junbesh congress in which he did the same, even as he criticized government corruption and instability. The Turks have reportedly picked up on rumors Karzai might be considering offering Dostum a position with responsibility for border security. Sener also noted Dostum has been reportedly trying to curb his alcohol consumption. It is still possible for Dostum to throw his support behind Karzai. If he does, the case against him will likely drop, said Sener. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON