TURKEY: ISRAEL-SYRIA PEACE TALKS' DOMESTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001150 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2018 TAGS: PREL IS SY TU SUBJECT: TURKEY: ISRAEL-SYRIA PEACE TALKS' DOMESTIC DIMENSION REF: ANKARA 1057 Classified By: Acting PolCouns Kelly Degnan for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Since the media began reporting on the latest round of Israel-Syria peace talks, Turkey's regional leadership role has resonated particularly well with its domestic audience, at a time when the government could use a foreign policy success. The talks are the first major victory for the GOT's Middle East engagement policy; validating the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) deviation from Turkey's traditionally Eurocentric focus. Although Prime Minister Erdogan's senior foreign policy advisor Ahmet Davutoglu largely orchestrated the process, support for Turkey's engagement with Syria cuts across party and institutional lines. In the midst of tense domestic political struggle, Turkey's mediation is a source of pride and reflects the role many Turks want to play in the region. The talks also allow Erdogan to demonstrate that he is an important figure in the international scene. Erdogan will likely want to accelerate the transition from indirect talks to face-to-face negotiations to secure progress before domestic politics become an insurmountable distraction. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The Israel-Syria talks are a major coup for the GOT's new foreign policy agenda. Since coming to power in 2002, AKP has expanded Turkey's traditionally Eurocentric focus and enhanced its relations with the Middle East. Serhat Erkmen at the Center for Eurasian Strategic Studies (ASAM),an Ankara-based think tank, explained that, under Ahmet Davutoglu's direction, the GOT has actively tried to find a regional role for itself. Given Turkey's limited foreign policy tools, Davutoglu personally cultivated Turkey's relationship with Syria, according to Erkmen. As one of the few nations able to exert soft power over the SARG, the growing ties between Ankara and Damascus have provided Turkey a platform for participation in broader Middle East issues, such as the peace process. From Cold War to Warm Relations -------------- ¶3. (C) Erkmen explained the end of the Cold War and Syria's expulsion of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan in 1998 eliminated underlying tensions between the two nations. Due to family ties and economic incentives, there is strong domestic support for improved relations with Syria. Nationalist Movement Party (MPH) MP and Turkey-Syria Parliamentary Friendship Committee Chair Mehmet Sandir told us all major parties stand behind Erdogan's rapprochement efforts. The Turkish General Staff (TGS) has also thrown its weight behind the process. In a speech given to a June 5 TGS-sponsored Middle East Symposium, CHOD GEN Buyukanit commended the indirect talks, adding that Syria "must be integrated into the international community (reftel)." TGS has also approved plans to demine the border area with Syria as part of Turkey's obligations under the Ottawa Convention. The Turkish Self-Image -------------- ¶4. (C) AKP MP Suat Kiniklioglu said Turkey's desire to be the facilitator corresponds to how it views itself in the region. Turks believe they played a key "balancing role" in the Middle East during the Ottoman Empire, elaborated Erkmen. For today's Turks, he noted, it is not about ruling, but being viewed as influential; proctoring the Israel-Syria talks reflects that need. Kiniklioglu told us Erdogan is personally keen on playing mediator as part of Turkey's cultural ethos. Prior to the May 21 GOT/GOI/SARG announcement hailing the start of indirect talks, FM Babacan attempted to manage public expectations, underscoring that "much remained to be achieved." Since, however, the level of rhetoric has progressively increased. President Gul, during a June 5 press conference in Tokyo, pronounced "Turkey is the only country that can talk to both sides." At the Middle East Symposium, GEN Buyukanit asserted "Turkey is and will continue to be one of the principle dynamics of the region." ANKARA 00001150 002 OF 002 Whither the U.S. -------------- ¶5. (C) The GOT and the Turkish media are closely monitoring U.S. reactions and readily interpreted Secretary Rice's statements on the talks as an endorsement. Prime Ministry foreign policy advisor Ali Sarikaya claimed Secretary Rice's comments have helped to dispel domestic naysayers. Sarikaya expressed concern that Iranian-Israeli tensions could derail the talks. The Prime Ministry, he reported, fully expects Iran to try to undermine the process. Sarikaya also questioned Israel's motivations, pondering whether the GOI is participating in the talks to buy time with Iran. In either case, he hopes the U.S. will help keep both countries in check. ¶6. (C) Comment: An important foreign policy achievement in its own right, Turkey's role in the Israel-Syria talks has a distinct domestic dimension. For Erdogan, Turkey's success will demonstrate his international respectability and Turkey's growing global prominence; many view the talks as Erdogan's personal legacy. Turkish officials, academics, and intellectuals outside the Prime Minister's inner circle were surprised at how quickly the GOT transitioned from passing notes between the GOI and SARG to moderating indirect talks (and possibly to face-to-face negotiations). The pace of the Israel/Syria talks will likely be influenced by the cadence of the AKP closure case as Erdogan attempts to advance negotiations while simultaneously fighting for his political future. End Comment. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON