EU REACTIONS TO TURKISH CLOSURE CASE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 001135 SIPDIS EUCOM PLEASE PASS TO POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL EU TU SUBJECT: EU REACTIONS TO TURKISH CLOSURE CASE Classified By: AMBASSADOR ROSS WILSON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)) ¶1. (c) UK Ambassador to Turkey Nick Baird has expressed concern to Ambassador about where EU thinking may be heading on reactions to the AKP closure case. Of immediate concern, Baird understands that Enlargement Commissioner Rehn now believes a Constitutional Court ruling to close the party and ban its top leaders should lead to at least an informal suspension of Turkey's accession process. Rehn and/or Commission staff are reportedly talking about a limited number of benchmarks/criteria that Turkey might have to meet to resume accession negotiations. In their minds, there would be no formal EU decision on suspension, and the Commission itself would have the right to decide when agreed conditions are met. Baird, however, was skeptical and worried that any criteria or benchmarks might get too onerous or too junked up with Cyprus or other extraneous issues to work. ¶2. (c) One mechanism for a formal decision, Baird noted, could be a post-AKP closure move to find Turkey in violation of the Copenhagen criteria that were required to open accession talks in 2005. A vote on this issue would not require unanimity, but only a qualified majority vote, and therefore could not be blocked by the UK or another friend of Turkey in the EU. In Baird's mind, Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy might find this solution very useful in light of upcoming elections and other domestic considerations; he worried that Turkey would lose such a qualified majority vote. Any decision then to restart Turkey's accession talks, however, would have to be unanimous ) meaning they probably would not get restarted. ¶3. (c) Baird noted that the EU "Friends of Turkey" will be meeting in coming days to review these issues and seek to develop a strategy forward. While some reaction to a closure ruling will obviously be necessary, a response that cuts off Turkey from the EU will exacerbate the damage Turks themselves may do to democracy here and should be avoided. In any case, it will be important for the US to consult with the EU and the Commission on the way forward and to make our concerns known. Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Turk ey WILSON