CODEL DORGAN DISCUSSES REGION WITH JORDAN,S FM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003408

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV JO
SUBJECT: CODEL DORGAN DISCUSSES REGION WITH JORDAN,S FM

Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) Summary: Foreign Minister Salah Al Bashir discussed
the strength of the U.S.-Jordanian relationship and the
importance of resolving the Israel-Palestinian issue, as well
as Jordan's support for Iraq and Lebanon, with Senators
Dorgan, Conrad, Cochran and Whitehouse. He also spoke of the
need to counter Iran's influence in the region by
strengthening moderates. Bashir told CODEL Dorgan that the
global economic downturn could adversely affect tourism and
foreign investment in Jordan, and he speculated that many
skilled Jordanians may return from the Gulf as the economy
weakens there. End Summary.

The Core Issue
--------------


2. (C) In the December 14 meeting, Foreign Minister Bashir
defined the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians
as the core regional issue. He worried that Israeli election
rhetoric and the divisions between the Palestinians would
preclude an environment conducive for negotiations before mid

2009. He said that the United States is both "judge and
catalyst" of the process so it is important that the next
administration addresses the conflict quickly. Bashir stated
that the positive aspects of 2008 were security improvements
in the West Bank and an engaged international community. He
asserted that the two-state solution is the only solution and
that all other proposals are "distractions," referring to
frequent press reports of a "Jordan option" that would see
the West Bank absorbed into Jordan. Senator Dorgan responded
that President-Elect Obama supports a two-state solution and
has indicated that he will "hit the ground running."

Concerned Neighbor
--------------


3. (C) On Iraq, Bashir said that Jordan is a concerned
neighbor and "can't afford a divided, weak Iraq." He said
Iraq had seen progress but needed to reinforce recent
security and political successes. He called the Status of
Forces Agreement (SOFA) a "step in the right direction" but
cautioned that any vacuum would bring "chaos."


4. (C) Bashir noted that Lebanese President Michel Sleiman
had been received by King Abdullah earlier in the day and
that Jordan supports him and Lebanon's constitutional
government. He said that he did not foresee major changes
from the Lebanese elections scheduled for May 2009 and that
he hoped election tactics would not lead to setbacks. He
said there were signs of improved cooperation from Syria and
praised its arrest there of militants responsible for recent
attacks in Tripoli.

Moderates Need Support
--------------


5. (C) Bashir said that moderates in the region need to be
strengthened in order to effectively compete for popular
support with extremists such as Hizballah or Hamas. He said,
however, that moderates such as the Government of Jordan
(GOI) and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas were
undermined by Israel's willingness to release prisoners to
Hizballah and to Hamas. On the other hand, Abbas had only
been able to secure the release of a few prisoners after four
years in power, and Jordan was given custody of four
prisoners last year only on the condition of holding them in
prison for another 20 months. He also cited Israel's actions
on the Mughrabi Gate issue despite Jordanian protests to halt
activity near the Harem-al-Sharif complex. Moderates need to
be seen to deliver, he said. Iran's influence is based on
the fact that they are seen to deliver while moderates are
not, he said, and regional challenges are exacerbated by this
view. He worried about Iranian hegemony and said that others
in the region such as Bahrain shared his concern.

Jordan and the World Economy
--------------


6. (C) Responding to a question about the effects of the
economic crisis on Jordan, Bashir said he expected to see a
slowdown in the tourism sector and foreign investment and
that many expatriates would return from the Gulf as the
economies there shrink. He characterized the return of the
expatriates as a "mixed bag," since Jordan would lose the
remittances on which much of its economy depends but would
likely benefit from the influx of highly-skilled labor.
Bashir said that people were pleased about the falling
commodity prices but that wealth is disappearing and Gulf
countries' budgets were based on projected oil prices of
$40-50 dollars per barrel.


AMMAN 00003408 002 OF 002



7. (U) CODEL Dorgan was comprised of Senators Byron Dorgan
(D-ND); Kent Conrad (D-ND); Thad Cochran (R-MS); and Sheldon
Whitehouse (D-RI). They were accompanied by the Ambassador
and POLOFF (notetaker).


8. (U) CODEL Dorgan did not clear this message.

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