TWO YEARS ON, PROGRESS ON DEMOCRACY GOALS FALLS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 003116 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KWMN JO SUBJECT: TWO YEARS ON, PROGRESS ON DEMOCRACY GOALS FALLS SHORT OF JORDANIAN NATIONAL AGENDA'S VISION REF: A. AMMAN 2653 ¶B. AMMAN 2062 ¶C. AMMAN 1856 ¶D. AMMAN 1446 ¶E. AMMAN 1136 ¶F. 07 AMMAN 2605 ¶G. 07 AMMAN 1410 ¶H. 06 AMMAN 865 ¶I. 05 AMMAN 8823 ¶J. 05 AMMAN 6898 AMMAN 00003116 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The National Agenda, issued in 2006, remains the primary guide for political and economic reform in Jordan. The agenda's 10-year vision is ambitious, tackling many structural and cultural issues to pave the way for modernizing Jordan's political system. Opposition to that vision remains strong, and many of the core issues of the agenda remain unaddressed. While new laws regulating the press, political parties, civil society, and public gatherings are steps in the right direction, they fall short of the agenda's vision. Other areas such as electoral reform and the role of Jordan's legislature remain largely unaddressed. Despite the slow pace of reforms, the National Agenda remains a reliable jumping off point for discussions with the GOJ about reform goals and benchmarks. End Summary. The National Agenda -------------- ¶2. (SBU) In 2005, King Abdullah commissioned a group of academics, politicians, and activists to create a document to guide policy makers in the reform process for the next decade. They produced the National Agenda, an ambitious plan for major changes in Jordan's economic and political life, releasing their report in early 2006. The reforms envisioned by the National Agenda are ambitious, striking at the core of Jordan's political culture. They demand sweeping changes in Jordan's electoral system, judicial code, and media sector. While the National Agenda's economic goals contain concrete benchmarks for performance, the political objectives are vaguer, often forming an outline of desired outcomes rather than concrete measures that can be enacted to produce results. Establishment politicians gave the agenda lukewarm reviews (Refs H-J),making self-serving arguments that it was too ambitious for the realities of Jordan's political and security environment and therefore too difficult to implement. ¶3. (C) The main laws that have resulted from the process so far (the Press and Publications Law, the Law on Associations, the Political Parties Law) fell short of the Agenda's stated vision, coming about only after rancorous internal negotiations. The laws have been criticized by local and international civil society as expanding rather than reducing the power of government authorities to control political expression through excessive regulation of public gatherings, civil society organizations, and political parties. The larger, more complex issues in the National Agenda such as Jordan's electoral law and the role of the legislature remain largely taboo in Jordan's political discourse as they touch on the pillars of Hashemite rule. Below is a scorecard of the agenda's political themes, along with the measures taken so far to achieve their stated goals. Note: The complete National Agenda is available in text and pdf formats on Intellipedia-S. See "Jordanian National Agenda." End Note. Freedom of the Media -------------- ¶4. (U) The Agenda's Vision: A new press and publications law that would guarantee the right to media ownership, limit state ownership of existing media outlets, prevent "state censorship and interference," prevent detention of journalists, abolish the Higher Media Council, establish an alternate regulatory body, reduce influence-peddling in the media by the government, and abolish mandatory membership in the Jordan Press Association. ¶5. (SBU) Status: A new press and publications law was passed in 2007. While it abolished imprisonment of journalists for ideological offenses, other parts of the penal code still allow for detention for a variety of reasons. Note: The King summoned newspaper editors on November 10, declaring to them that "there will be no detention of any journalists carrying out his or her duty." End Note. While it abolished detention of journalists, the law increased fines for several lesser journalistic offenses (Ref G). The parliament recently approved a law to abolish the Higher Media Council, originally conceived as a successor AMMAN 00003116 002.2 OF 003 to the Ministry of Information. There have been no changes in state ownership of media, censorship and influence-peddling practices, or mandatory membership in the Jordan Press Association. Jordan passed a law in 2008 that provided for expanded rights for journalists and others to access information - a law that journalists have not yet taken advantage of (Ref F). Inclusion and Civil Society Institutions -------------- ¶6. (U) The Agenda's Vision: A new law that would guarantee the freedom of Jordanians to form and manage civil society organizations with limited intervention from the government when necessary to maintain public order. ¶7. (C) Status: For the last twenty years, successive governments have attempted to amend Jordan's Law on Associations. After a series of compromises between security-minded conservatives and pro-liberalization groups within the current government, a new Law on Associations was passed in July 2008. While it helpfully consolidated supervision of civil society under the Ministry of Social Development, activists complained that it created new operational restrictions and provided further opportunities for the government to intrude on the operations of NGOs (Ref E). Unhappy with the legislation as passed by parliament, the King endorsed the law with the understanding that it would be amended before taking effect. The GOJ has obtained from civil society a prioritized list of suggested amendments to the law and is currently considering the way forward. Political Parties -------------- ¶8. (U) The Agenda's Vision: A new political parties law that would establish the right to join political parties, provide for public financing and strengthen existing political formations. ¶9. (SBU) Status: Jordanian political parties are based on narrow family ties or even narrower political ideologies. Due to their failure to create a national mandate, political parties have never played a significant role in Jordanian politics. In an attempt to change this dynamic and spur parties to expand their horizons, a new Political Parties Law was passed in April 2007, entering into effect in April 2008. The law set a higher bar for the creation, registration, and activities of political parties, in the hope that it would cause smaller parties to combine forces and seek a national mandate. In return, parties were to receive public financing to supplement their meager privately-donated budgets. Over half of Jordan's political parties were unable to meet the new standards and ceased operations as a result (Ref B). Party officials complain that the allotments of government financing (JD 50,000/USD 70,000 per year, per party) are inadequate. Empowerment of Women -------------- ¶10. (U) The Agenda's Vision: Changing of Jordan's political and organizational culture to remove all forms of discrimination against women, and increasing their roles in political and corporate governance. ¶11. (C) Status: There continues to be strong resistance to movement on women's issues, both in parliament and in wider Jordanian society. Islamists and tribal conservatives alike see state intrusion into family life as problematic and have succeeded in blocking many previous attempts at reform. In the absence of political will on the part of Jordan's elected leadership, the King and his appointed government have implemented limited reforms by decree. The King ordered the creation of a twenty-percent quota for women on municipal councils for the 2007 local elections but refrained from expanding a similar quota which set aside six seats for women in parliament. Note: Four of twenty-eight appointed ministerial posts are currently held by women. End Note. Jordan signed the Convention on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women in 2007, but it has not yet been submitted to parliament for ratification because of government fears that conservative MPs would defeat it. Parliament took a positive step in January 2008 when it endorsed a law which expands and clarifies punishments for perpetrators of violence against women. Election Law -------------- ¶12. (U) The Agenda's Vision: Creation of a new electoral AMMAN 00003116 003.2 OF 003 law which would create a mixed party list and proportional representation system, redraw problematic district boundaries, ensure transparency, set new rules for voter registration, and eliminate the confusing quota systems for women and ethno-religious minorities. ¶13. (C) Status: There are currently no plans to introduce changes to Jordan's electoral system. Electoral reform is generally considered a taboo topic in Jordan, as it would alter the fundamental structure of Hashemite rule by upending the dominance of tribal East Bankers who swap loyalty to the King for control of the government and its spoils. Proportional representation in Jordan would empower Jordan's Palestinian minority and turn the system of patronage on its head. In order to prevent this scenario, electoral district boundaries are designed to favor tribal East Bankers from rural districts at the expense of urban Palestinians. Most of our contacts agree that while changes in Jordan's electoral system are urgently needed, the shock to the system they would represent make them politically impossible. Legislation -------------- ¶14. (U) The Agenda's Vision: Allow Jordanian legislators to draft and introduce legislation, move the Legislative and Opinion Bureau (which writes all of Jordan's laws and regulations) away from political influence by separating it from the Prime Ministry, and begin moves to modernize Jordan's 1952 constitution (Ref C). ¶15. (U) Status: Jordan's appointed government (rather than members of parliament) remains the only body able to draft or introduce legislation. Like the electoral law, Jordan's constitution is considered vital to stability of the regime. Tribal conservatives tend to believe that opening up the constitution to amendment would decrease the powers of the state and open the door to instability by allowing effective accountability of state institutions. Jordan's constitution was last amended in 1984, and there is little to indicate that current Jordanian lawmakers or the government are inclined to amend it any time soon. Justice -------------- ¶16. (U) The Agenda's Vision: Ensure judicial independence through establishment of judicial training standards, development of court procedures, and creation of a budget process separate from that of the Ministry of Justice. ¶17. (SBU) Status: With much help from USAID, the professional capacity and procedures of Jordan's judiciary has increased dramatically in the past few years. The courts are now fully automated, alternative dispute resolution mechanisms are coming online, and the corps of judges is expanding to include judges with necessary skills. The number of women in the judiciary is steadily increasing. Still, Jordan's judiciary lacks the administrative and financial independence from the executive branch necessary to rule on broader issues such as the constitutionality of laws and government decisions. Comment -------------- ¶18. (SBU) Despite the slow pace of reforms, the National Agenda remains a reliable jumping off point for discussions with the GOJ about reform goals and benchmarks. Indeed, members of the current cabinet were quizzed on the agenda's tenets as a test of their commitment to reform. While many of our contacts express doubts that the National Agenda reforms will ever be implemented in full, there is general agreement among those inside and outside of government that the agenda represents a standard for which Jordan's government can and should strive. Yet if skepticism on the part of elites was to blame for slow initial progress on the political front, that blame now falls on the economy. During the past year, the national debate over how to deal with inflation and the global economic crisis has crowded parliament's docket with measures to stem the bleeding and maintain Jordan's political stability, leaving democratic political reform a distant second on the priority list. If the political reforms of the National Agenda are to be pushed forward in the near term, proponents of those reforms must now provide new reasons why political change is an essential part of the overall package. Beecroft