JORDAN'S ISRAEL WATCHERS LIKE LIVNI, SEE HER LOSING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003013

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (MISSING SUBJECT TAGS)

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA AND NEA/IPA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL IS JO
SUBJECT: JORDAN'S ISRAEL WATCHERS LIKE LIVNI, SEE HER LOSING

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Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d).


1. (C) Summary: The political tumult in Israel has grabbed
the attention of Jordan's Israel-watching cadre. Most of our
contacts - largely supportive of, if pessimistic about, the
peace process - were pleased Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni had
won leadership of the Kadima Party (particularly given that
the alternative was the more hardline Shaul Mofaz) and viewed
her call for elections as reflecting strong principles, not
weakness. Few, however, thought she would guide her party to
victory in February; many feared the right's ascendance, with
Binyamin Netanyahu and Likud at the helm. End Summary.

Livni Worthy...
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2. (C) Virtually all of our contacts - including Foreign
Minister Salah Al-Bashir - were pulling for a Livni victory
in the Israeli parliamentary elections slated for February

2009. In his November 1 meeting with IO A/S Brian Hook,
Bashir voiced this hope, though he noted that caretaker Prime
Minister Ehud Olmert was actually his first choice. He
wistfully suggested that the outgoing PM's recent press
interview about the peace process - in which he repudiated
his right-leaning thinking on the Palestinian Question of the
past 35 years - should have happened six months ago.


3. (C) Our contacts almost uniformly saw Livni's failure to
form a government (which would have obviated snap elections)
as a sign of her committment to the peace process. Many
highlighted her rejection of the demands by the
ultra-orthodox Shas Party that she exclude Jerusalem from
talks, rather than focusing on her rejection of Shas's
exhorbitant fiscal demands. For instance, Ghazi Al-Sa'adi,
whose Dar Al-Jalil publishing house also teaches Hebrew
courses, judged that Livni had proved herself a strong
political personality by not succumbing to Shas "extortion."
"This improved her standing and gave her an agenda," he
concluded. Ultimately, what matters is not so much who is
the next Prime Minister of Israel, but which camp - the right
or the left - has the most seats and provides the backbone of
the next government, according to Sa'adi. "I'm a pessimist.
I don't expect any essential change," he concluded, pointing
out that polls show the center and left parties garnering
less than a majority. Note: Sa'adi plans to gather friends
the night of the Israeli elections to watch the returns on
Israeli TV; apparently a long-standing tradition. End Note.


4. (C) Similarly, Director of Ammannet independent radio and
a frequent contributor to the Jerusalem Post, Daoud Kuttab,
told us he believed Livni wanted to continue talking peace.
Were she not, he reasoned, she would have been more willing
to make concessions to potential coalition partners. He
expected her to reap some political benefit for having stood
on principle. Oraib Rantawi, Director of the Al-Quds Center
for Political Studies observed that Israeli commentators were
divided on whether Livni had failed and was forced into
elections, or whether she had demonstrated leadership;
Rantawi leaned toward the latter judgment. Issa Al-Shuaibi,
director of Palestinian chief negotiator Ahmad Qurei's Amman
office, told POLOFF on October 28 that Abu Ala remains a
strong supporter of Livni and was pleased by her victory over
Mofaz in the Kadima primaries, having developed a good
working relationship as she headed up the negotiations file
under Ehud Olmert. MP Mubarak Al-Yamin Abbadi, who chairs
parliament's legal committee, described Israel as a "real
democracy," unlike Jordan. He saw a Livni win as the best
chance for forward movement in the peace process, and praised
her as having "real political charisma" that could propel her
to victory.


5. (C) Not everyone was sanguine about Livni's plans,
however. For instance, Mahmoud Mheidat, newly appointed head
of Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, told PolOffs on
October 27 that she was neither qualified nor experienced
enough to be Prime Minister, and that her background as an
intelligence officer was problematic. He questioned her
ability and interest in negotiating peace.

... But Can She Win?
--------------


6. (C) Despite a certain enthusiasm for Livni - and her
hoped-for continued willingness to seriously pursue the peace
process - several of our contacts raised doubts that she
would come out on top, come February. FM Bashir, for
instance, questioned Livni's ability to challenge the status
quo, saying, "she's a lawyer, and that means that she's
cautious - a bit timid." MP Abbadi said a Netanyahu victory
would be a "step backward" to a "voice from the past." MP

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Mheidat saw a Netanyahu victory in the offing, which would be
further indication that "radical attitudes" will have gained
further ground. Rantawi, who saw Israel's elections as even
more important to Jordan than the U.S. elections, expected
Netanyahu and the right would win in February, which he
thought would make life difficult for Jordan.

Some See U.S. Elections, Continued Involvement, as Key
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7. (C) Sa'adi said the Israeli political map is too
complicated to allow real progress on peace without strong
pressure from the United States. Sounding a similar tone,
Abu Ala confidant Shuaibi argued that the Israeli left and
right had failed in both war and peace, and Israel lacks
strong leadership. Right now, his greatest fear is that the
U.S. will become distracted by the financial crisis, and will
not be able to devote attention to the Middle East.


Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman
Beecroft