MAJALI REJECTS ELECTORAL REFORM CHATTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 003002 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPAL JO SUBJECT: MAJALI REJECTS ELECTORAL REFORM CHATTER REF: A. AMMAN 391 ¶B. 07 AMMAN 4584 Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Jordan's electoral system has recently emerged as a topic of discussion, first in background chatter and now in comments in the official media. Lower house speaker Abdulhadi Al-Majali offered a surprisingly blunt rejection of changes in Jordan's electoral system in a wide-ranging interview with the government-owned Al-Rai newspaper on October 26. "(In) the present circumstances and at the present time, I oppose amending the electoral law," Majali asserted, dismissing calls for electoral reform as uninformed speculation. He further reasoned that the creation of strong parties was a necessary precursor to electoral change, pointing out the lack of "effective and convincing political currents" in Jordan. Majali's own National Democratic Trend, currently in the process of becoming a political party, is designed to fill that vacuum. Yet many of our civil society contacts believe that electoral reform will naturally lead to effective political parties, rather than the other way around. ¶2. (C) With the reinstatement of elected parliaments in 1989, Jordan's electoral system was designed to under represent urban districts with majority Palestinian populations and over represent rural districts where tribal East Bankers prevail (Reftels). The result is an unrepresentative parliament whose primary interest lies in maintaining the system of political patronage, benefiting East Bankers at the expense of Jordan's majority Palestinian population. A new electoral law is the holy grail of Jordanian activists and reformist politicians, but is effectively a taboo topic as it would give Palestinian-origin Jordanians a stronger role in national politics. ¶3. (C) It is unclear what prompted Majali to air his views on electoral reform publicly. In the Al-Rai interview, he hints that "political salons" were beginning to speculate on upcoming changes to the law -- something we have also heard through the rumor mill. MP Mubarak Abbadi, newly elected chair of parliament's legal committee, told poloff on October 28 that there were "general indicators" that the government was considering a change, but he refused to offer specifics. Local IFES director Hermann Thiel, who works closely with the Ministry of Interior, told poloff that he had also heard rumors about electoral reform from his contacts, and was trying to obtain further details. ¶4. (C) Comment: Majali's comments, while hardly surprising, are an indication of the raw nerve that this issue touches. Tribal conservatives know that Jordan's electoral law is the bedrock of Hashemite rule post-Black September. A change to that law would mean a fundamental change in the social contract which has kept Jordan stable for twenty-five years. The 2006 National Agenda offers a blueprint for electoral reform -- one that has consistently been rejected by Jordan's East Banker establishment as impossible without a resolution of where the loyalty of Jordan's majority Palestinian population lies. While it is unlikely that electoral reform will be put on the front burner any time soon, this may be the first glimmer of a debate on the demographic reality that Jordan will eventually have to deal with. End Comment. Beecroft