CODEL PRICE DISCUSSES JORDANIAN POLITICAL REFORM,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 AMMAN 000265 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2018 TAGS: PREL KPAL JO IS SY IZ SUBJECT: CODEL PRICE DISCUSSES JORDANIAN POLITICAL REFORM, SYRIA, THE PEACE PROCESS, AND IRAQI REFUGEES REF: 07 AMMAN 4816 Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: During the January 9-11 visit to Jordan of Codel Price (comprising Representatives David Price, Harold Rogers, Dennis Rehberg, James Moran, Michael Simpson, and Eleanor Holmes Norton, all of the House Appropriations Committee),the group and their staffers met with Chief of the Royal Court Bassem Awadallah, Prime Minister Nader Dahabi, Foreign Minister Salaheddin al-Bashir, and Planning and International Cooperation Minister Suhair al-Ali. Discussions also were held with UNHCR and various Iraq refugee-focused NGOs. Subjects raised included the bilateral relationship, political and economic reform, Syria, the peace process, and Iraqi refugees. GOJ interlocutors spoke from the same talking points, stressing their strong appreciation for the latest increase in U.S. aid and their support for continuing the strategic relationship between with the U.S. They emphasized the centrality of solving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to the future of the region and to Jordanian stability. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Jordan: In the Eye of the Storm, Indebted to the U.S. -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Prime Minister Dahabi greeted the Codel by noting that it was an auspicious time for their visit as it fell on the eve of the President's tour of the region. He characterized Jordan - a small country surrounded by larger, more powerful states - as one of the few stable elements in a turbulent region, and thanked the U.S. for its continued assistance to and strategic relationship with Jordan. Foreign Minister al-Bashir echoed these comments in a later meeting. Codel members responded in kind, recognizing the critical position in which Jordan finds itself, particularly with the influx of Iraqi refugees. Members said the King's visit to Congress last year had been inspirational and, according to Price, "had a good deal to do with the President's efforts on the peace process." For his part, Awadallah thanked the Representatives for continued U.S. aid, positing that Jordan would not have been taking "half of their steps forward" on reforms without it. -------------- The Recent Elections and Political Reform -------------- ¶3. (C) Responding to questions from Chairman Price about the November parliamentary elections and the pace of political reform, the Prime Minister analyzed the Islamic Action Front's poor performance, saying it had been overconfident and had put forward unpopular or unknown candidates. The post-election complaints from the IAF were typical, he said: "normally, when someone fails, they find reasons outside themselves to blame." He predicted that for the next four years the IAF would remain weak. Dahabi assessed that the tribal factor is becoming less of a deciding factor in who is elected, noting with evident pride that it is becoming more common for businessmen to win votes, given their financial resources. ¶4. (C) Looking forward, the Prime Minister said Jordan sought greater political participation and supported increased freedom of expression for its citizens. He drew attention to his withdrawal from parliamentary consideration of two pieces of controversial legislation that local and international NGOs claimed would restrict the independence of Jordanian civil society and professional organizations, and impose greater government controls on foreign funding. Dahabi said he did not anticipate a new election law this year, arguing that the government must first engage with NGOs, and with Jordanians in the cities and the countryside, to involve them more in the process of reform. ¶5. (C) Dahabi turned the discussion over to Planning Minister Ali, who gave various examples of Jordan's progress on reform. She pointed out that the National Center for Human Rights (Note: which had been one of the loudest critics of the conduct of the municipal elections in July; end note) voices its position loudly and clearly, and "there is no one stopping them." She also cited the passage of the anti-money laundering law, which - according to Ali - no other country in the region has emulated, as a "remarkable achievement." -------------- -------------- Syria: Edging Back Toward the Community of Nations? -------------- -------------- AMMAN 00000265 002 OF 004 ¶6. (C) Both the Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister highlighted the recent increase in cooperation between Jordan and Syria on a variety of issues, including the importation of wheat and discussion of bilateral issues. They also noted that King Abdullah has been working hard to help bring Syria back into the Arab orbit, with a focus on pulling it away from its alliance with Iran and urging it to play a more positive role in Lebanon. ¶7. (C) It was Awadallah, however - the adviser closest to the King among the Codel's interlocutors - who provided the most detailed analysis on the subject of Syria. He expounded at length on the regime in Damascus, and Jordan's ramped up efforts to positively influence Syrian behavior on the international and regional stages. He noted that from the moment President Bashar al-Asad took over from his father, the King had been trying to bring the new Syrian leader into the pro-Western camp and gave him "more chances" than anyone else. But while the King had anticipated less dogma and more pragmatism from the younger Asad, he had been disappointed. Syrian policy became more hostile to Jordan and destructive in the region. Particularly after the assassination in February 2005 of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and the tightening of Syria's alliance with Iran, "we sort of gave up." ¶8. (C) However, a year ago Asad begun reaching out to the King, and these overtures ultimately led to the King's visit to Damascus late last year. Awadallah said that in the past few months, Asad has been saying the right things, speaking of the need for a peace deal with Israel, focusing on Syria's own interests (i.e., not those of Iran or Hizballah),and seeking better relations with the Arab world. In Awadallah's view, the Jordanian response has been receptive, but skeptical. "We've heard this before, but there's been no delivery." Syria, he said, must earn credibility. It can do so by playing a more positive role in Lebanon and by reducing its support for Hamas. A positive sign would be if the oft-delayed presidential elections happen soon in Lebanon; if this does not happen, Syria's relations with the Saudis will not improve. A deterioration in that relationship would take on added significance given that the chairmanship of the Arab League summit process is set to move from Riyadh to Damascus th is spring. Tensions could make that transfer more complicated. "Syria needs to work hard to restore its position in the Arab world. Now is not the time for rewards," Awadallah said. ¶9. (C) Awadallah said Jordan was pleased Syria was invited to Annapolis, as this move made it harder for rejectionist groups in Damascus to come out strongly against the peace conference. In his analysis, Asad felt a huge sense of relief at being able to attend the peace conference, as he had been anxiously awaiting further Israeli attacks as a follow up to the reported strike on a Syrian target late last summer - which was met with near silence (and therefore implicit acquiescence) by most of the Arab world. Awadallah added that Iran seemed particularly displeased by the leading role Jordan is playing in driving a wedge between Tehran and Damascus. He noted that after Annapolis there was a demonstration in front of the Jordanian Embassy in the Iranian capital: "Why pick our Embassy? There were lots of others who attended Annapolis," he asked, rhetorically. -------------- Peace Process -------------- ¶10. (C) Awadallah told the CODEL that the King had just spoken with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and relayed that he had "never heard the voice of Abbas sound stronger or happier." Awadallah went on to note that "in every aspect of our lives, the Palestinian issue is there. Time is of the essence." The Prime Minister also struck an upbeat tone, praising the Annapolis conference for having revived the peace process. However, he cited settlements and security as major short-term concerns that needed to be addressed. The Palestinians, he said, are keen to have Israel implement a settlement freeze in short order. On the security side, while Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says he is willing to help the Palestinians build their security forces, he is concerned that any weapons they are provided might be turned on Israelis. Dahabi noted that Israel seems to be laying the groundwork for a long interim period between the announcement of a Palestinian state and its actual formation. ¶11. (C) The Foreign Minister identified the peace process as AMMAN 00000265 003 OF 004 his government's primary foreign policy focus and cited three major achievements of the Annapolis conference: President Bush's commitment to push hard to realize the vision of a two-state solution, the attendance of so many Arab states at the conference, and the semblance of a timeline (the end of 2008) to move forward on final status issues. When a Congressman asked him to place odds on the chances of peace this year, on a scale of 1-10, Bashir offered a "qualified six to seven." ¶12. (C) Still, Bashir highlighted several areas of concern that could disrupt progress. He argued that continued settlement building in East Jerusalem and the West Bank "create a huge sense of distrust and prejudge negotiations," while praising Palestinian actions on the security front as "quite positive." The Foreign Minister estimated that while a large segment of the Arab population can be easily swayed by the rhetoric of those who "hate life," in reality only a small segment would ever be involved in actual violence. He suggested that instead of Israel or the United States publicly commending Abbas for his moderation, they should deliver to him progress on the ground so he can display for the Palestinian public the fruits of that moderation. Bashir called for confidence-building measures such as a categorical statement about settlements (not just on the so-called "illegal outposts"),steps to reduce the misery among Palestinians, and continued focus on the timeline for progress on negotiations. -------------- -------------- Iraqi Refugees: Still a Crisis, But Some Improvements -------------- -------------- ¶13. (SBU) CODEL Price attended a roundtable with Save the Children (STC),Relief International, and the American Near East Refugee Agency (ANERA),and later held a meeting at the offices of UNHCR (Jordan). Save the Children provided an overview of the conditions of Iraqis in Jordan (reftel),but also addressed the more security-minded questions posed by CODEL members. STC's Country Director characterized Iraqi refugee attitudes toward the U.S. as more ambivalent than hostile: while they pine for the order and jobs they had in Iraq before the invasion in 2003, those living here harbor no deep animosity toward the U.S. He noted that there have been some significant improvements in the past year, with NGOs doing a better job providing services and health, and with the government making education more widely available to Iraqi children this school year. ¶14. (C) According to the Amman-based NGOs, the situation is Iraq is such that refugees here are not keen on returning anytime soon. While the Jordanian government is insistent that the Iraqis will not be able to reside here permanently, STC sees a need for a medium-term approach to aid and planning that recognizes that Iraq is not likely to be stable enough for a mass return of refugees from Jordan in the immediate future. STC expressed appreciation for ongoing U.S. support, and urged that this support remain consistent and reliable. STC also called on the Congressmen to keep the pressure on Jordan as "a friend" to remain a haven for Iraqis. The representative from Relief International voiced concern that, in time, the crisis of Iraqi refugees will not be as "sexy" as it is now, and that support could wane. ¶15. (C) Discussion at UNHCR focused on the evolving situation of Iraqi refugees over the past year and the humanitarian consequences of the war in Iraq. Resident Representative Imran Riza cited improved relations between the UN agency and the GOJ, and increased international community support; donors are now backing up their rhetoric with greater resources and more rapid action. UNHCR estimates that 80 percent of the names it has submitted for resettlement have been accepted by the U.S. government. For the remaining 20 percent who are rejected, UNHCR must turn to other countries which are hesitant to accept those whom the U.S. has already turned down. The UN agency would like the U.S. to be more flexible with our "credible fear" standard, and pushed for greater lenience in granting waivers for so-called "material support" cases in which Iraqis paid ransoms to kidnappers to secure the release of relatives. Riza specifically focused his plea on solicitation cases for which waivers are not currently available, resulting in otherwise approvable cases being placed in a "holding pattern." Several representatives promised to look into the relevant portions of the Patriot Act. ¶16. (C) When asked how the U.S.'s resettlement efforts compare to other countries, Riza acknowledged that the U.S. is their primary resettlement partner worldwide, as well as AMMAN 00000265 004 OF 004 in Jordan. He added that Canada has accepted approximately 90 percent of referrals regionally and Sweden has a greater than 90 percent acceptance rate, noting Canada's pre-screening process and Sweden's dossier-based decisions in lieu of interviews. Riza praised the UK for developing a new asylum program for its interpreters and sending a first mission to process Iraqi resettlement claims in 2008. ¶17. (U) Codel Price did not have the opportunity to clear this cable before departing from Jordan. Hale