KING'S RUSSIA VISIT AIMS TO BOLSTER TIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 002484 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2018 TAGS: PREL RU JO SUBJECT: KING'S RUSSIA VISIT AIMS TO BOLSTER TIES REF: A. AMMAN 1983 ¶B. IIR 6 853 0330 08 ¶C. IIR 6 853 0640 08 (PENDING) ¶D. IIR 6 853 0372 08 ¶E. IIR 6 853 0631 08 Classified By: Ambassador R. Stephen Beecroft, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary and Comment: King Abdullah, accompanied by Royal Court Chief Bassem Awadallah, has just wrapped up an August 21-24 trip to Russia, where he met with both President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to discuss a range of bilateral and Middle Eastern issues. Coming on the heels of a mid-July visit to Russia by Foreign Minister Salah Al-Bashir, the trip is probably best viewed as part of Jordan's ongoing efforts to expand and enhance political and trade relations in Central and East Asia (Ref A). Planned before the Georgia crisis, the trip is evidence of the King's prioritization of the bilateral Russia-Jordan relationship. End Summary and Comment. ¶2. (C) Director of the Foreign Minister's Private Office Jamal Al-Shamayleh on August 24 explained to PolCouns that the visit was not cancelled, despite events in Georgia, for fear that the cancellation would be "misinterpreted." While Jordan is concerned about events in Georgia on a humanitarian basis, he said, it does not have significant national security interests at stake in the conflict, and thus would avoid taking any steps that would irritate anyone. ¶3. (C) The timing of the visit may have been linked to the ongoing MVSV-2008 arms exhibition in Moscow. ITAR-TASS on August 20 published a report that Russia and Jordan had presented their joint Hashim RPG-32 portable anti-tank (refs B-E) grenade launcher at MVSV-2008. Jordan has also been engaging Russia as it looks to develop a peaceful civilian nuclear energy program. On Georgia: Not Taking Sides, But Not Precisely Neutral -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Jordanian press coverage carefully tracked official news agency accounts. Reports note the King's satisfaction with the level of Jordanian-Russian ties, a mutual willingness to develop them further, and the importance of Russia's role in advancing the Middle East peace process. The government-owned English-language daily Jordan Times (circulation 10,000) editorialized on August 25 that "this is no time to take sides in the crisis, but rather an opportunity to promote a diplomatic solution to it." Its sister publication, l-Rai, and Jordan's other government-aligned daily, Ad-Dustour, sounded similar notes in today's masthead editorials. The King's pledge to quickly dispatch humanitarian relief aid to the conflict-ravaged area through the Jordan Hasehmite Charity Organization, however, prompted Medvedev, who observed that this was the third meeting he had held with the King in the past six months, to thank his Majesty for his "intention to provide humanitarian aid to South Ossetia after the catastrophe that took place in the region." ¶5. (C) In an August 24 conversation with PolOff, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Lower House of Parliament Muhammad Abu Hdeib blamed Georgia for the crisis. Georgia he said, had taken provocative actions in South Ossetia, "apparently with the go-ahead from the West." Jordan opposes the expansion of NATO, he claimed, especially the inclusion of those states bordering Russia. Such action was bound to provoke a once-again superpower - emboldened by its oil wealth - that of late has been acting with greater self-assurance. Abu Hdeib further asserted that Jordan and the rest of the Arab world are concerned by evidence that Israel trained and provided arms to the Georgian military. He argued that these actions - and U.S. efforts to isolate Russia over Georgia - risked driving Moscow closer to Tehran, which will complicate efforts to rein in Iran's nuclear program. ¶6. (SBU) Abu Hdeib's comments were reflective of the mood in Jordan, which has generally been more sympathetic to Russia - even if sometimes cautiously. In a Jordan Times op-ed published on the eve of the King's visit to Russia, Former UN Ambassador Hasan Abu Nimah wrote that while "Israel's aggression against Lebanon (in July 2006) was warmly welcomed by some U.S. officials as the 'birth pangs of a new Middle East,' Russia's actions were unequivocally condemned as savagery and barbarism... reactions remain plagued by glaring double standards." Writing on August 18, in Al-Dustour, Columnist Rakan Majali wrote that "it is now proven and confirmed that the United States was the one that urged Georgia to invade South Ossetia... Russia definitely does not want anything more than to protect its existence and its vital space and interests." Writing on August 14, Columnist Jamil Nimri wrote in the independent Arabic daily Al-Ghad that "for the first time, Russia scores a good and clean goal, and for the first time it imposes its position and will... As Russia growled, Georgia truly trembled, and in this lies a future lesson for all Russia's neighbors not to ignore or defy it." ¶7. (C) Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director of Policy Planning and Research Omar Nahar, in an August 25 conversation with Poloff, cited flux in the international arena as the end of the Bush Administration draws near. He speculated that Russia was probably testing the waters, but denied that there was any shift in Jordanian policy taking place (though he said he could not speak on behalf of the Royal Court). "We have always had good relations with the Russians, but we know where we stand in terms of relations with the U.S.. We do believe you are our strongest ally." he said, adding that "I can almost guarantee you that there is no change in policy." Nahar agreed that the Russians were using the visit for propaganda purposes, however. "They're very good at that," he chuckled. The Appeal of a Resurgent Russia -------------- ¶8. (C) Some observers, both in Jordan and regionally, has pointed to a generalized Arab satisfaction that Russia is asserting itself and perhaps positioning itself to again play a major role in the region. Sana Abdallah wrote on August 19 in the regional newspaper Middle East Times about how the Arab street "hopes to see the end of a Washington-centered unipolar world," further nothing that analysts observe that it is tough for Arabs to back the U.S. position on Georgia when Tbilisi is so close to Israel. Such sentiments were echoed by Parliament's Abu Hdeib, who observed that many in the Arab world are happy to see a resurgent Russia, which had the potential to bring "balance" toward the Middle East. But even as he implicitly took Russia's side, he cited the current crisis as further evidence of how quickly the U.S. will abandon its allies, "except for Israel, of course." Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The King's decision to go ahead with the trip probably reflected concern that a cancellation would have sent a strong anti-Russia message at a time that Jordan is working assiduously to expand its ties with the former Soviet Union writ large and with Russia in particular. The trip finds few opponents among the commentariat in Jordan, which by and large is nostalgic for cold war-era "balance" in the region, and indifferent to the Georgian telling of its conflict with Russia. Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman/ Beecroft