JORDAN SCENESETTER FOR JULY 22 VISIT OF CODEL REED

UNCLAS AMMAN 002133 SENSITIVE SIPDIS H PLEASE PASS CODEL REED E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV JO SUBJECT: JORDAN SCENESETTER FOR JULY 22 VISIT OF CODEL REED ¶1. (U) Embassy Amman welcomes the visit to Jordan of CODEL Reed. Jordan remains one of the United States' strongest partners in promoting peace and security in the Middle East, and is active in a broad range of regional engagement activities. Summary -------------- ¶2. (SBU) King Abdullah is approaching his 10th anniversary on the throne of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. He has used his stewardship to drive economic and political reform, and advocate for stability and moderate governance in the region, within the limits of Jordan's influence. Jordan maintains a close relationship with the USG, facilitated by strong military and foreign assistance programs. The King will likely have recently returned from a private visit to the U.S. when CODEL Reed arrives in Jordan, during which he spoke at the annual meeting of the Aspen Institute in Colorado, and participated in a yearly conference of prominent media and technology executives in Sun Valley, Idaho. Jordan's Engagement with the USG -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Jordan maintains a close relationship with the USG, and King Abdullah, a staunch ally, is firmly supportive of U.S. priorities and initiatives. The United States and Jordan share a long history of cooperating to achieve shared goals, many of which would not be possible without U.S. assistance. Jordan is appreciative of the recent budget supplemental which provides $250 million for FY 08 and $200 million as FY 09 "bridge" assistance. Jordanians are some of the highest per-capita recipients of foreign assistance, receiving USD 361 million in ESF for fiscal year 2008, and Jordan has historically put economic and security assistance to excellent use in furthering the country's capabilities in many areas and the standard of living of its citizens. USAID is actively engaged with the GOJ to support Jordan's own social and economic reform efforts. USAID's wide range of projects in Jordan strengthens water resources management and infrastructure development, local governance, health and education systems, the judiciary, tourism, protection of the environment, and assists industry while creating economic growth opportunities. Jordan in recent years has received FMF in the USD 200-300 million range, evidence of the exceptional military-military cooperation. Jordan sends approximately 200 officers under the IMET program annually to U.S. military schools and programs. CENTCOM has its most extensive exercise program in Jordan, conducting 12 multilateral/bilateral exercises annually with Jordanian Armed Forces support and participation. Demographics -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Jordan's population of 6.2 million is split primarily between East-Bank Jordanians (Jordanians whose families trace their heritage to the East Bank of the Jordan River),and Palestinian-origin Jordanians (and their descendants) who arrived in Jordan in 1948 after the first Arab-Israeli war, and in 1967, following Israel's occupation of the then-Jordanian West Bank (King Hussein renounced Jordanian claims to the West Bank in 1988). There are approximately 1.8 million UNRWA-registered refugees inside Jordan, some of whom live in 13 designated refugee camps. The vast majority of Palestinian-origin Jordanians (including most of the registered refugees) hold Jordanian citizenship. Jordan has hosted hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who fled the conflict and its after-effects, and has made efforts to extend access to social services to them. The GOJ is reluctant to formally classify the Iraqis as refugees, and is sensitive to concerns of key East Bank constituencies that a new permanent refugee populace in Jordan would erode yet further the demographic position of East Bankers already compromised by the large influxes of Palestinians after 1948 and 1967. The GOJ emphasizes that hosting the Iraqis has been a burden on the budget, and seeks international aid to ease the implications for their already tight fiscal situation. USD 175 million of Jordan's FY 2008 economic assistance supplement is intended to aid displaced Iraqis in Jordan. In FY 2007, the USG used USD 10.3 million to assist Iraqis in Jordan by funding health and education initiatives, and school construction. In FY 08, the USG has made over USD 220 million to international organizations and NGOs for assistance to displaced Iraqis in Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The Economy -------------- ¶5. (U) Jordan has few natural resources and insufficient water (it is the fourth most water poor country on earth). Though phosphates and potash (used to produce fertilizer) are top exports, as well as garments to the U.S., Jordan relies on its well-educated populace to make up for its lack of natural wealth. A large number of technically-trained Jordanians work abroad - primarily in the Gulf and Saudi Arabia - and the Jordanian economy depends on their remittances. ¶6. (SBU) King Abdullah has focused heavily on economic reforms since his ascension to the throne. He and his advisors continue to foster Jordan's transition from an aid-based economy to a self-sustaining, trade-based one. To this end, the GOJ has worked closely with USAID to reform its regulatory environment and to encourage foreign investment by making the Kingdom a good place to do business. Indeed, Jordan has seen a boom in investment from the Gulf in the last few years, and Amman and Aqaba are abuzz with new construction and commercial development. The U.S. has emerged as Jordan's leading trade partner, as Jordan's Free Trade Agreement with the U.S. (signed in 2001),and its Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZs - established in 1996 in part to promote Israel-Jordan ties) allow for easy access to the American market. Jordan in 2000 joined the WTO, and has active trade relationships and agreements with the EU, the Greater Arab Free Trade Area, and Singapore. The Jordanian government has been pursuing free trade arrangements with other countries, including Canada, Pakistan, Turkey, and China. King Abdullah has initiated a civilian nuclear energy program in Jordan to overcome the relentless economic burden of importing energy, complemented by efforts to increase renewable energy and add other indigenous sources to Jordan's energy mix. Jordan is progressing in privatization, though recently, controversial sales of government property have generated public debate; after 150 prominent Jordanians signed a letter criticizing key sales, the King responded with a widely featured interview defending GOJ policy and decrying rumor mongering. Although GDP growth has been steady in recent years, and in 2007 growth was estimated at 5.7 percent, the economic situation is precarious. There are growing concerns that the benefits of economic reform have not reached the masses. The February 2008 lifting of fuel subsidies, combined with the global increases in fuel, food, and commodity prices, as well as the depreciation of the dollar - to which the Jordanian Dinar is pegged - have exacerbated economic disparities and led to genuine economic hardship. Politics -------------- ¶7. (SBU) King Abdullah also advocates political reform, though efforts are slowed by a recalcitrant bureaucracy and a conservative Parliament. Parliamentarians for the most part hail from East Bank tribes - historically, East Bank tribes have been the Hashemites' main pillar of support - and accelerated change could alter the long-standing status quo they find favorable. Still, Abdullah has made some progress on political reform. For example, in 2005, he commissioned the National Agenda, a document designed to serve as a reform roadmap over the next decade. The GOJ recently enacted a new Political Parties Law, which intends to help consolidate and strengthen political party activity in the Kingdom, although many civil society groups criticized the law for still allowing far too much government oversight of parties. ¶8. (U) The main political opposition (and indeed, the only effective political party) in Jordan is the Islamic Action Front (IAF),a self-administering branch of the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood (JMB). Both the JMB and IAF are legal entities in Jordan. They frequently criticize and butt heads with the GOJ, but draw the line at criticizing the King. ¶9. (SBU) Jordan in 2007 held both municipal and parliamentary elections. The municipal election on July 31, 2007 was based on a new law that permitted Jordanians to directly elect their mayors and municipal councils (with the exception of Amman, where King appoints a mayor, and Aqaba, which is governed under a separate model). The law mandates 20 percent of council seats for women. The election was marred by the Election Day withdrawal of all IAF candidates due to accusations - not corroborated - of voter fraud. ¶10. (SBU) Jordan elected a new parliament on November 20, ¶2007. Voter turnout was 59 percent and most seats went to East-Bank tribal candidates unaffiliated with any party, just as they did in the previous 2003 contest. In that election the IAF had won 17 seats, but in 2007 they only won 6, likely an indicator of the declining relevance of the IAF in day-to-day politics. The IAF's platform is based primarily on criticizing Jordan's ties to Israel and the USG. The Lower House of Parliament consists of 110 deputies, and the upper house consists of 55 Jordanian senators who serve four year terms on the King's appointment. The Prime Minister and the rest of the cabinet are all appointed by the King; Parliament does not form governments, but must vote confidence in the new ministers. Following the election, King Abdullah selected as the new PM Nader Dahabi. Dahabi was previously the chief commissioner of the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA),a project designed to bring prosperity to the south of Jordan by turning the port into a free trade zone. Dahabi is also the brother of the LTG Muhammad Dahabi, the head of Jordan's General Intelligence Directorate (GID). ¶11. (SBU) The Jordanian legislature has just completed a special session of Parliament. The most significant laws passed were a new Associations Law, and a new Public Gatherings Law, both of which came under heavy fire from the IAF-led opposition and from civil society groups. The Associations Law's most controversial amendment requires NGOs to secure cabinet approval before accepting foreign funding. Many Jordanian NGOs are highly reliant on foreign funding, and fear this oversight will be used by the GOJ to control their activities. The new Public Gatherings Law makes it easier for civil society groups and associations to hold private meetings, and decreases the advance notice a group must give to the Ministry of the Interior before holding a public event or protest. The law was criticized, however, for not going far enough in easing restrictions. Parliament also endorsed some changes to the Jordanian labor law (and will debate further changes in their regular session),but rejected an amendment that would allow legal foreign workers to join labor unions. Parliament will reconvene in the fall per its regular schedule. Foreign Policy -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Jordanian foreign policy encourages stability by supporting moderate governance throughout the region. Abdullah has publicly stated that the lack of progress in resolving the Israel-Palestinian dispute is the greatest threat to stability in the region. The King is a staunch backer of the Annapolis process, and frequently and publicly calls for a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian crisis. He backs Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas, whom he considers the legitimate representative of Palestinians in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Jordan's most recent contribution to Palestinian stability is its ongoing training of Palestinian Authority security personnel at the Jordan International Police Training Center (JIPTC - a facility formerly used to train Iraqi police and corrections officers). ¶13. (SBU) King Abdullah has staunchly supported U.S. goals in Iraq, including offering support for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki's government. Jordan recently selected an Ambassador to serve in Baghdad, and PM Dahabi in June hosted PM Maliki in Amman. The visit resulted in the renewal of a 2006 oil deal between Iraq and Jordan to provide Jordan with oil at discounted prices, although consistent implementation of the deal was hindered by security and technical issues. The King was scheduled to visit Baghdad on July 9th, but the trip was postponed. ¶14. (SBU) King Abdullah has decried Iran's negative influence in the Middle East. In a recent Washington Post article, he stated that he did not support military strikes on Iran, fearing that it would just give Iran an excuse to unleash more instability. He has been supportive of Lebanese Prime Minister Siniora, and condemned the latest outbreak of violence in Lebanon. ¶15. (SBU) The King is an uncompromising supporter of moderate Islam and uses his position to promulgate this view. In 2004, he sponsored the Amman Message, which recognizes the validity of eight schools of Islamic jurisprudence as well as of Sufi and Salafi thought, states that "takfir," or the labeling of Muslims as non-Muslims or as apostates, is prohibited by Islam, and states that fatwas can only be issued by competent authorities or licensed individuals based on the legitimate schools of jurisprudence. Also contained in the message are denunciations of terrorism on Islamic religious grounds, and an Islamic justification of democracy, civil and human rights. The King continues to use the Royal Palace-attached Aal al-Bayt Institute for Islamic Thought to institutionalize and coordinate the international spread of the Amman Message. Visit Amman's Classified Web Site at http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/amman Rubinstein