PARLIAMENT'S EXTRAORDINARY SESSION - A PREVIEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 001569 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2018 TAGS: PGOV ECON KDEM JO SUBJECT: PARLIAMENT'S EXTRAORDINARY SESSION - A PREVIEW REF: A. AMMAN 1455 ¶B. AMMAN 1465 ¶C. AMMAN 1533 ¶D. AMMAN 1392 ¶E. AMMAN 407 ¶F. AMMAN 1030 AMMAN 00001569 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Jordan's parliament is expected to reconvene in mid-June for an extraordinary session following a directive from the King. Among the thirty-three laws up for consideration are a major reform of the social security system, a landmark law governing the operations of civil society, a new public gatherings law, a renewable energy law, a supplementary budget package, and new regulations ON the relationship between landlords and tenants. The agenda for the session is set in advance, likely precluding further parliamentary discussion of issues not ON the government's priority list. End Summary. Back to the Salt Mines -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Parliament is set to consider thirty-three laws during its extraordinary session, which is expected to open in mid-June and end as late as September. Note: It must conclude before October 1, which is the constitutionally designated START date for the next regular session. End note. ON the agenda are key statutes which will govern issues such as the legal framework for civil society, regulations ON public demonstrations, a reform of Jordan's social security system, and a string of business-oriented laws. Many of these statutes were slated to be introduced during the last regular session, but the slow pace of committee work hampered their advancement to the floor. MPs tell us that speaker Abdulhadi Al-Majali and the government are urging the committees to work faster in the extraordinary session so needed reforms can be enacted. Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Abdulrahim Okour added that since the agenda for extraordinary sessions is set in advance, committees tend to process bills at a quicker rate. His estimation is that the session will last for one and a half months at most. Social Security Law -------------- ¶3. (C) This law is likely to be at the top of the government's agenda. It nearly surfaced at the end of the regular session, but last minute tweaks pushed it into the extraordinary session. The bill would increase the age of retirement, require twenty-three years of service before retirement (up from the current fifteen),combine two separate social security mechanisms into one overarching system, and cap outlays at 5000 JD (USD 7000) for wealthier Jordanians who benefit disproportionately in the current system. Minister of Parliamentary Affairs Okour indicated that this law will be the most difficult of the session to push through. Due to its high profile and impact ON the retirement plans of nearly all Jordanians, Okour anticipated that MPs could attach amendments or seek changes. He did signal that the government might show some flexibility on, for example, the retirement ages. This bill will be covered in detail septel. Associations Law -------------- ¶4. (C) This law (treated extensively in Ref B) has the potential to dramatically change the way that civil society in Jordan is regulated. Parliament's legal committee will consider the law at first, and then it will move ON to the plenary body. A showdown is expected between those who desire to protect the prerogatives of the government and those who want to empower Jordanian civil society further. The way the law is presented to parliament, and the degree to which the PM actively dissuades amendments, will determine how the law will look after it gets an up-or-down vote. Public Gatherings Law -------------- ¶5. (C) This law (covered in Ref C) speaks to the management of demonstrations for the most part, but also covers ostensibly "private" meetings such as civil society symposiums, political party events, and board meetings. The government has pushed this law forward into the extraordinary session, despite the fact that sensitive negotiations within the government ON its content are still incomplete. The law will replace the heavily criticized statute currently in AMMAN 00001569 002.2 OF 003 force, which allows governors to deny permission for public demonstrations and even many private meetings. Landlords and Tenants Law -------------- ¶6. (C) This is a broad-ranging law that will change the face of the real estate market in Jordan. It will re-write the book ON the rights and responsibilities of landlords and tenants, end rent control, and allow subletting in Jordan for the first time. The bill covers not only the rental of housing, but also other goods such as rental cars, equipment rental, and other areas. The original version of this law was set to go into effect in 2010, but over the past year changes in the economy led to a growing consensus that further amendments were needed before it took effect. Many Jordanians worry about volatility in real estate prices that the law may produce, and fret that rich landowners will gain huge windfall profits at the expense of working class people. It is somewhat surprising to see this law taken up in the extraordinary session - contacts indicated that a long debate was needed before the law came to the floor, and predicted that it would be several years in the making. The government has not prepared public opinion or members of parliament for the enactment of these changes, which may make it difficult for the bill to pass through the lower house without significant amendments or delays. Supplementary Budget -------------- ¶7. (SBU) This JD 500 million (JD 700 million) supplement is required to patch up gaps in the budget which resulted not only from parliamentary delays in lifting fuel subsidies and passing the budget earlier this year, but also rising inflation and increased commodity costs (Refs D and E). The bill will also shift Jordan's budgetary calendar to coincide better with the constitutionally-mandated START of the parliamentary year. Jordan's budget will now run from January to January, and the budget will be submitted in October (rather than December) to give parliament more time to push it through the committee system. Traffic Law -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Early ON in the current parliament's tenure, the lower house and senate both vetoed a traffic law enacted by the outgoing government of Ma'arouf Al-Bakhit. The law had been placed ON the books as a provisional law, which brought it into force without parliament's approval. Parliament's near-unanimous annulment of the law was a rare act of rebellion, with many MPs reminding the government that provisional laws are only supposed to be used for "emergency" measures. During its brief time as the law of the land, the traffic law proved deeply unpopular with Jordan's drivers, who were used to flaunting the rules of the road with relative impunity. The law imposed harsh financial penalties and even jail time for relatively minor offenses. Several weeks after the law was taken off the books, a large traffic accident near Jerash resulted in several fatalities. During the sober reflection period that followed, the King charged the government with introducing yet another traffic law. This "compromise" version is now set to appear during the extraordinary session. Gendarmerie Law -------------- ¶9. (SBU) This law would essentially split the functions of the current Public Security Directorate (PSD) into two separate forces. The Gendarmerie will have responsibility for security of diplomatic facilities, infrastructure, crowd control, and major crises. The remaining parts of PSD would concentrate primarily ON local policing. The split has effectively occurred already - this law will merely make it official. Chamber of Agriculture Law -------------- ¶10. (SBU) This law would create a new Chamber of Agriculture to promote agri-business and the credibility of Jordanian agricultural producers. Currently, an agricultural office exists within the Chamber of Commerce, but its focus is fee collection and it provides no oversight. Jordan's agricultural community has been lobbying for this action for some time, as agricultural issues have languished in the current chamber. Several previous attempts have been made to pass similar versions of this law, but all were either delayed or blocked by the Chamber of Commerce. AMMAN 00001569 003.2 OF 003 Miscellaneous Statutes -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Parliament is also set to consider a host of other laws ON economic issues such as currency exchange, the Jordan Institute for Investment, and patents. One statute will rearrange the relationship between the Port of Aqaba, the Aqaba Special Economic Zone Authority (ASEZA) and the Aqaba Development Corporation. A change in parliament's bylaws will streamline debate ON laws which have already passed through multiple committees. A law re-organizing parts of the court system may also appear ON the agenda. Post will report septel ON a renewable energy law. Land Deals In The Background, But Not ON The Agenda -------------- -------------- ¶13. (C) One issue that threatens to derail parliament's work during the extraordinary session is the furor over land deals, which continues to grab media attention (Ref A). MPs from across the political spectrum have called ON the government to open a public debate ON the issue, and have threatened to pose questions ON the floor, hold hearings, and (among some extreme voices) even pose votes of confidence. Any move in this direction will detract from the normal business of the legislature. ¶14. (C) There are procedural obstacles to such moves, however. According to Article Eighty-Two of Jordan's constitution, in an extraordinary session parliament can only discuss matters delineated in the royal order convening the session. If a bill or topic of discussion fails to appear ON the agenda, only the King can extend the session or add additional items. Soufian Al-Hassan, parliament's director of research, says that for extraordinary sessions, MPs suggest their "wish lists" of topics for discussion and bills that they feel merit priority status. The speaker then decides which topics are brought before the King and government for inclusion in the session. It is unlikely that the government or the King will voluntarily submit to another public airing of parliamentary grievances over land deals, but their exclusion from the agenda may prompt further agitation ON the part of MPs. Comment -------------- ¶15. (C) The government is using the more restrictive rules that come with an extraordinary session to its advantage, presenting a slate of complicated, far-reaching reforms which would likely languish in the slow, deliberative pace of a regular session. The popularity of the Dahabi government remains high despite Jordan's economic crunch (Ref F),and its ambitious agenda reflects the urgency of capitalizing ON that popularity to enact key reforms while the political climate is suitable. While there is some unrest in parliament these days, MPs are also under pressure to act and will likely FOLLOW the government's lead. The government is taking a calculated risk by bringing forward some inchoate statutes into the extraordinary session, but that risk is likely to pay off as MPs are eager to demonstrate their contribution to the King and government's pro-growth agenda. Hale