SOMETIMES THE WEAK SURVIVE - JORDAN'S NEW

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 07 AMMAN 001446 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2018 TAGS: PGOV KDEM JO SUBJECT: SOMETIMES THE WEAK SURVIVE - JORDAN'S NEW POLITICAL PARTY MAP REF: A. AMMAN 1139 ¶B. MOHAMMED ABU RUMMAN - "THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD: PASSING POLITICAL SETBACK OR DIMINISHING POPULARITY?" (2007) ¶C. AMMAN 535 AMMAN 00001446 001.2 OF 007 Classified By: Ambassador David Hale for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In the wake of a new political parties law, the number of parties in Jordan has been cut in half. The public financing envisioned by the law has yet to appear, and the parties are wary of the strings that may be attached to it. Fourteen parties remain - five liberal reformist parties, three Communist/Socialist parties, three Arab Nationalist/Ba'ath parties, and three Islamist parties. End Summary. ¶2. (C) As reported Ref A, the number of political parties in Jordan has been cut in half. The hope of policymakers and Jordan's senior leadership was that the law would force out the irrelevant and unsustainable parties, leaving a consolidated group which could begin to address national concerns. As the situation currently stands, however, it seems that the new framework will look remarkably like the old one. Despite their newly minted credentials with the Ministry of Interior, Jordan's political parties still show little of the skills, leadership, or ideological weight necessary to become relevant national political actors. Show Us the Money -------------- ¶3. (C) The new political parties law envisioned a tradeoff whereby parties would expand their reach in return for public financing. The parties have now fulfilled their part of the bargain by completing the registration process, yet the funding is still not forthcoming. Jordan's government has not allocated any money for financing political parties, nor has it defined the criteria by which the money will be distributed. Five million dinars (seven million USD) was the original target for total public financing allocated to political parties, but there are rumors that this figure may now be cut to as little as 300,000 dinars (420,000 USD). The financing will be distributed after the Prime Ministry orders a regulation to be written outlining the process. Hakim Al-Khreishat, an Interior Ministry official detailed to the Ministry of Political Development, said that the amount of funding is "not clear yet," and that negotiations were �A;ongoing within the government. He did not expect movement on a draft regulation for at least a few months. ¶4. (C) As it stands, there are few criteria that would prove relevant to the distribution of funds. Of the remaining fourteen political parties, only one (the Islamic Action Front) has representation in parliament. Poll numbers for political parties are either miniscule or non-existent. In the absence of a definable standard by which the performance of political parties can be measured, there is little to suggest that public financing will be equitable, at least in the short term. Even so, all of this is conjecture until the money has actually been allocated. Khreishat outlined a series of proposals that are floating around the Ministry of Political Development (whose ultimate impact on Jordanian government policy is likely quite modest) for future distribution of funds - a flat rate of 10,000 dinars (14,000 USD) per party, monetary rewards for parties which include more women and youth in their membership, half a dinar (0.35 USD) per vote received in parliamentary elections, or money only for parties which receive five percent or more of the vote. ¶5. (C) Ex-GID colonel and current MP Mahmoud Kharabsheh fears that the public financing portion of the law will end up bolstering the only party that can demonstrate its support concretely - the Islamic Action Front (IAF). "The IAF has the most support, so in the end it will get the most money. I don't want to effectively support the IAF through government funding," he says. Kharabsheh says that the government's original intention of creating a viable alternative to the IAF may have been sound, but the implementation has proved to be a colossal blunder. He points out that the IAF has deep roots and real support in Jordanian society - support that it built up through its long period of closeness with the Jordanian establishment. By contrast, other political parties in Jordan are relative newcomers who do not have the skills or the ideological underpinnings necessary to win genuine popular support. ¶6. (C) Contacts in Jordan's political parties seem strangely indifferent on the funding issue. Most would welcome AMMAN 00001446 002.2 OF 007 additional support regardless of its source, but are not counting on the government to make good on its obligations any time soon. None of the parties we talked to are actively pressing the government for access to the public financing promised by the law. As for the amount of support, the parties seem comfortable with five million dinars between them - less than one dinar per voter, spread amongst fourteen political parties. "In the beginning, five million dinars between us is OK," says Mohammed Beni Salameh of the newly created United Jordanian Front Party. He posits that most political parties in Jordan lack the organizational infrastructure to utilize the funds at any rate. ¶7. (C) USAID-funded organizations who work with a variety of parties said that their political party contacts are even considering the rejection of public financing. The belief is that money from the government will come with added scrutiny from the audit bureau of the Ministry of Interior - something that they are keen to avoid. The new political parties law already gives the audit bureau the power to dig into party finances even when public financing is absent, yet the parties believe that their use of public funds will give the ministry even more leverage that could be used to influence their political message. Strengthening Those That Remain -------------- ¶8. (SBU) During an April 29 briefing for the Ambassador, country representatives of NDI, IRI, and IFES outlined their strategies for building the capacity of Jordan's electoral system and the remaining political parties in partnership with USAID. As the longer term impact of the new law becomes evident, direct USG programming and that of its partners is focusing on building the grassroots organizations and messages of the parties. Through well-attended workshops open to all of Jordan's parties, as well as through individual consultations, USAID and its partners are building on the relationships formed in the 2007 parliamentary elections to build organizations which can take firm root in Jordanian society. In particular, USG efforts are focusing on outreach to women and youth - two sectors which the Jordanian government is also seeking to incentivize into political party action through funding mechanisms. These programs are all very well received by Jordan's political parties, regardless of their ideological credentials. In meeting with the remaining parties, the most common (and persistent) question was when the next NDI and IRI training sessions would take place. ¶9. (SBU) In addition to direct work with the parties, USAID programming is also focusing on Jordan's electoral system. Through IFES, USG funding is helping to lay the organizational foundation for the next round of parliamentary elections in 2011. Through that process, Interior Ministry officials are being introduced to the benefits of a more open, transparent political culture, especially where political parties are concerned. Change in this sphere will be gradual, but USG-funded programs are paving the way for it to take place. And Then There Were Fourteen -------------- ¶10. (C) Twelve existing political parties survived the re-registration process, and are joined by two newly formed parties. Overall, the balance of political ideologies looks much like it did before. The parties can be roughly grouped into liberal reformists/Jordanian nationalists (five), Communists/Socialists (three),Ba'athists/Arab nationalists (three),and Islamists (three). ¶11. (C) The current list of parties will probably expand in the next few months. NDI and IRI have heard rumors that some of the parties which failed to make the cut are now trying to reconstitute themselves. The English language Jordan Times reported on May 1 that four defunct parties (Humat, Arab Land, Al-Ansar, and Al-Wihda) will soon file a lawsuit challenging the implementation of the new political parties law - a move that could in theory lead to their re-emergence. Abdulhadi Al-Majali's National Democratic Trend is also waiting in the wings. Some media initially reported that the party had officially registered, but these reports later turned out to be false. It is likely that the party is waiting to see how the law is implemented before making a concrete move into the political sphere. ¶12. (C) The following is a run-down of political parties in Jordan which complied with the new law's requirements. Seven of the parties are part of the Higher Coordination Council of Opposition Parties, an umbrella organization of AMMAN 00001446 003.2 OF 007 anti-government groups dominated by the IAF. Note: The council was composed of fourteen tiny parties before the new law went into effect. End Note. The Call Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Dua'a Secretary-General: Mohammed Abu Bakr Founded: 1993 Ideological Bent: The party leadership describes it as a "centrist Islamist" party along the lines of Turkey's Justice and Development Party. "We don't have beards," notes party chief Abu Bakr, emphasizing that Islam is a moderate religion which seeks societal and political peace. The party stands against the ideology and political practices of the Muslim Brotherhood and the IAF, and has been accused by them of being "spies" of the U.S. and Israel. Unfortunately, the party has little to offer in terms of an alternative ideology. Its leadership admitted as much, saying that they were waiting for a change to Jordan's electoral law before putting forward any candidates - wishful thinking at best. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: No Financial Situation: Poor. The party's budget is around 50,000 JD (70,000 USD) per year. The party raises money only from its own membership, and most of that is likely contributed by the secretary-general (whose gigantic wristwatch happens to be studded with diamonds). The party leadership said that it was "too complicated" to raise money from outside sources. It is eagerly waiting the start of public financing. Did You Know?: The party claims that MP Reem Qassem (Zarqa, elected through the quota for women) is a "secret" member. The Jordanian National Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Watani Al-Urduni Secretary-General: Mina Abu Bakr Founded: 2007 Ideological Bent: Ultra-nationalist royalist. The party leadership frequently invokes the name (and will) of the King in their political pronouncements. They are basically a pro-government, pro-establishment conservative party, and one that often veers towards ethno-nationalism. The party's attitude towards the right of return for Palestinian refugees is that it will finally give East Bankers "their country" back. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: No Financial Situation: Good. The party refused to name a figure, but it is obvious that the secretary-general is a very rich woman who can afford to fund a personality party out of her private bank account. The party is involved in extensive charitable activities and provides scholarships to the children of its members. Party members told us that they would distribute their share of public financing to "the people" through their charitable wings. Did You Know?: Mina Abu Bakr, the secretary-general, is the only female head of a political party in Jordan. The Democratic People's Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Hashd Secretary-General: Ahmad Yusuf 'Aliya Founded: 1989 (Officially) Ideological Bent: Palestinian revolutionary socialist. The party is one of three members of the "leftist trend" group, which includes the Communist Party and the Democratic Popular Unity Party (see below). All three have very similar ideologies, and are separated mostly by historical differences over small points of Marxist dogma. Despite its revolutionary credentials, the party's leadership is surprisingly moderate, and talks freely about a desire for AMMAN 00001446 004.2 OF 007 further political opening and democratization in Jordan - they call themselves a "revolutionary democratic" party. The party has a long history that goes back to the founding of Jordan. It was illegal throughout the Cold War era, and emerged from its underground status during the political opening of 1989. Its base of supporters comes primarily from the Palestinian community, and as a consequence it is heavily involved in the anti-normalization movement. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: Yes Financial Situation: Moderate. The party has a solid (but aging) base of supporters who cling to their membership based on past ideological struggles. The result is a steady, dues-paying membership that allows the party some degree of financial independence. It is not a personality party which depends on the deep pockets of one benefactor alone. Did You Know?: The party is associated with former Palestinian militant and DFLP Nayef Hawatmeh, and has sister parties in Egypt and elsewhere. The Message Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Resalah Secretary-General: Hazem Qashou Founded: 2003 Ideological Bent: Liberal reformist. The party is composed primarily of Amman elites, many of whom are active in Palestinian causes and civil society. Some of the board members are aging remnants of a former era, but others are younger and more dynamic. In general, they support a broadening of political space in Jordan, and have little faith in the security services. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: No Financial Situation: Moderate. Since its leadership is mostly composed of Palestinian businessmen, it has more available funds than most Jordanian political parties. Even so, Qashou is the primary donor, and it is clear that the financial strength of the party is directly linked to his willingness to provide. Did You Know?: The party allocates a set percentage of the seats on its board to women. The Democratic Popular Unity Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Wahda Al-Sha'abiya Secretary-General: Sa'ed Diab Founded: 1990 Ideological Bent: Palestinian socialist. The party was originally the Jordanian branch of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, and largely rests on those laurels today. It is part of the "leftist trend" group. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: Yes Financial Situation: Unknown, but seems likely to have a solid base of older supporters within Jordan's Palestinian community. The Islamic Center Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Wasat Al-Islami Secretary-General: Marwan Al-Fa'ouri Founded: 2001 Ideological Bent: Pro-Government Islamist. The party split from the Muslim Brotherhood and the IAF in 2001, and has generally pursued a moderate, pro-state approach (Ref B). Unlike the Islamic Action Front, the party accepts normalization and relations with Israel. Its membership is primarily composed of East Bankers. The party claims (as many others in Jordan spuriously do) that it has "secret" adherents in parliament. AMMAN 00001446 005.2 OF 007 Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: No Financial Situation: Unknown The National Movement for Direct Democracy -------------- Arabic Name: Al-Haraka Al-Qawmiya Lil Dimoqratiya Al-Mubashara Secretary-General: Mohammed Al-Qaq Founded: 1997 Ideological Bent: Pan-Arab Nationalist with a Palestinian twist. It is mostly a personality party based around the Secretary-General, and has no clear agenda beyond a few slogans about Arab unity. The Secretary-General talks about the party more in terms of what it isn't - not Islamist, not Communist, not particularly Jordanian nationalist. His desk features a Hizbollah plaque, a picture of Qadhafi, and a Saddam Hussein sticker - an indication of the mishmash of ideas that flow through conversations with him. The party did not field any candidates in the November 2007 parliamentary elections. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: Yes Financial Situation: Poor. The Secretary-General describes the party as operating at "survival level" only. It can only afford one branch office (in Zarqa). The transition to 500 members was a financial stretch for the party - one that it will be difficult to maintain. Did You Know?: The Secretary-General spent fifteen years in an Israeli jail (1968-1983),and is currently barred from entering Israel. The Islamic Action Front -------------- Arabic Name: Jebhat Al-'Amal Al-Islami Secretary-General: Zaki Bani-Irshaid Founded: 1992 Ideological Bent: Islamist. The IAF is the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan. The party has frequently demonstrated political support for Hamas. It also beats a steady drum of anti-government rhetoric, often under the banner of democratization. Since it has almost no chance of winning political power, the IAF is comfortable with spouting unfounded criticism and rarely proposes alternative policies. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: Yes Financial Situation: Good. The party has deep pockets as a result of extensive support in Jordan and links to donors from the Muslim Brotherhood. The IAF may also be drawing funds from professional associations it controls. The National Constitution Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Watani Al-Dustouri Secretary-General: Ahmed Al-Shunaq Founded: 1997 Ideological Bent: Pro-Government Tribal Conservative. The party was originally founded by Abdulhadi Al-Majali (currently speaker of parliament) as a merger of nine small pro-government parties. The effort foundered due to lack of government support and a coherent strategy. Majali has since left the party, leaving it a shell whose purpose is now unclear. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: No Financial Situation: Unknown, but likely poor given declining interest in keeping it afloat. Did You Know?: Rumor had it that the party was set to dissolve itself, but it has unexpectedly survived due to help from Jordan's security infrastructure. The head of the party AMMAN 00001446 006.2 OF 007 told the National Democratic Institute that he was "planning on taking a vacation" when he was informed that the party was going to cross the threshold regardless of his assumptions or expectations. The Arab Ba'ath Socialist Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Arabi Al-Ba'athi Al-Ishtiraki Secretary-General: Fuad Dabbour Founded: 1993 Ideological Bent: Syrian Ba'athist. The party's small base of supporters speaks to its miniscule number of adherents and its firm backward-looking ideology. Despite its size, the party has a decent footprint in the Jordanian media. Dabbour's fiery statements on foreign policy (usually on the normalization issue) are frequently quoted in the press. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: Yes Financial Situation: Unknown The Jordanian Communist Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Shuyui Al-Urduni Secretary-General: Munir Hamarneh Founded: 1948 Ideological Bent: Pan-Arab Palestinian Communist. The party is the result of a recent merger between two factions (the Jordanian Communist Party and the Jordanian Communist Workers' Party) which had existed side by side for decades (Ref A). The party is vocal in its support of anti-normalization efforts, and frequently issues written attacks against American policy. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: Yes Financial Situation: Unknown. The party rails against "foreign funding" of political parties, but has not indicated its willingness to accept financial assistance from the Jordanian government. Did You Know?: The party was illegal until 1993. The Ba'ath Arab Progressive Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Ba'ath Al-Arabi Al-Taqaddumi Secretary-General: Tayseer Salameh Al-Hamsi Founded: 1993 Ideological Bent: Iraqi Ba'athist. Like its Syrian-oriented counterpart, the party clings to a remnant of old political fashions which few find relevant for today's problems. By all accounts, the party's support base is miniscule. Many are wondering how it crossed the threshold. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: Yes Financial Situation: Unknown, but likely poor. The Jordanian United Front -------------- Arabic Name: Jabhet Al-Urduni Al-Mutahida Secretary-General: Amjad Al-Majali Founded: 2008 Ideological Bent: Still not exactly clear, but generally liberal reformist with a hint of East Banker nativism. The party is probably a personal advancement vehicle for Amjad Majali (a relative but political enemy of parliament speaker Abdulhadi Al-Majali),although it is too early to say whether it has broader ambitions or not. The head of the party's political committee told us that it is looking for "liberalism with Jordanian characteristics" without defining any of those terms. The party claims 3,000 members, but AMMAN 00001446 007.2 OF 007 clearly has no near-term strategy or idea on how to create an effective grassroots organization. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: No Financial Situation: Too early to say, although the prominence of its leadership and the number of initial members likely indicates a solid financial base. Did You Know?: The party is the first in Jordan to adopt term limits for its secretary-general, though it remains to be seen whether Majali will actually follow through on that. The Life Party -------------- Arabic Name: Hizb Al-Hayah Secretary General: Thaher Ahmad 'Amrou Founded: 2008 Ideological Bent: Neoliberal reformist with a dash of tribal populism. The party supports an intriguing mix of pro-business measures and internal political reform. The party's strategy is to establish trust and name recognition through services, and then move on to larger political goals. The party wants to bring Jordan towards a more economically sustainable future in which it is less dependent on foreign aid and is not burdened by debt. Member of the Higher Coordinating Council of Opposition Parties: No Financial Situation: Too early to say, but starting out well. The secretary-general is a wealthy businessman, but it is clear that he wants to expand the party's financial base. He said that the party intends to establish businesses and other fundraising mechanisms which will provide long-term financial security for the party. HALE