MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD SHURA COUNCIL ELECTS HAWKISH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 001385 SIPDIS FOR NEA/ELA E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2023 TAGS: PGOV KISL KDEM JO SUBJECT: MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD SHURA COUNCIL ELECTS HAWKISH NEW LEADER REF: A. AMMAN 867 ¶B. AMMAN 693 ¶C. MOHAMMAD ABU RUMMAN: THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD IN THE JORDANIAN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 2007: A PASSING "POLITICAL SETBACK" OR DIMINISHING POPULARITY? Classified By: Ambassador David Hale, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) After holding membership elections in March and April, the Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood's Shura Council, its highest body, met on May 2 after multiple delays and elected a hawk, Hammam Saeed, as Controller General, ousting Salim Al-Falahat, considered a dove. Saeed is the first Controller General of Palestinian origin. The Islamic movement in Jordan now faces new tests: how to close its ranks following the contentious elections and the clear divisions in the movement that the elections brought to the surface, and how to define its future relationship with the Jordanian regime. End summary. Shura Council Elects a Hawk as Leader -------------- ¶2. (C) After having failed three times to convene due to internal dissension, the newly elected Shura Council of Jordan's Muslim Brotherhood (MB; ref A) finally met on Friday May 2 and elected Palestinian-origin Hammam Saeed as new MB Controller General, ousting East Bank "dove" Salim Al-Falahat. Despite electing a new MB Controller General, the failure of the Shura Council to begin its work until May 2 underlines the continuing rifts within the Islamic movement in Jordan, largely between the so-called dovish faction under the leadership of Al-Falahat, and the hawkish trend led by Zaki Bani Irsheid, Secretary General of the Islamic Action Front (IAF),the Brotherhood's political party. While press reports since the March-April internal elections had varied significantly on which trend in the MB held more seats on the Council, contacts with insight into the process have told Poloffs that the dovish faction holds 20-22 seats and the hawks the remaining 28-30 seats. ¶3. (C) The run-up to the Shura Council meeting was marked by acrimony and division (refs A, B). Several district results were overturned and the elections re-run, while competing journalists, perhaps inclined towards different factions, gave contradictory reports as to who was on top. One field of battle was an internal MB trial of Irsheid and former MP (and notorious hawk) Muhammad Abu Fares for failing to support the IAF's parliamentary election slate. On April 23, newspapers reported that the internal court suspended their memberships in the MB, initially for three years, and then reduced the penalty to a one-year suspension. In fact, an internal MB appeals court subsequently overturned the suspension, asserting that the internal courts did not have jurisdiction in the matter and that the new Shura Council itself would have to decide on the issue. Four Factions Make Two Alliances -------------- ¶4. (C) Most observers group the MB and Shura Council members into two trends: hawks and doves. However, in an April 30 meeting, Muhammad Abu Rumman of the independent daily Al-Ghadd, and a former MB member, in the most lucid analysis we have seen, identified four groupings competing for influence. ¶5. (C) Abu Rumman's analysis begins with the traditional hawks and doves, led by the first and second generation of MB figures and largely divided by the degree of their focus on Palestine, versus internal Jordanian issues, and their willingness to confront the regime. Abu Rumman then describes a third trend, the Centrists, who emerged in the 1990s, and "the fourth trend," a harder-line reaction to the centrists. Per Abu Rumman, both of these trends emerge from the younger (third and fourth) generations of MB members and are a reaction to the hawk-dove polarization and to the intra-MB stresses created by the resumption of parliament and party activity in the late 1980s and 1990s. ¶6. (C) The distinction between the two, in Abu Rumman's analysis, is that the centrists, while identifying less with the state when compared with the doves, are more pragmatic than the hawks and believe in political participation. Led by Imad Abu Diyeh, they are said to view Turkey's AKP party AMMAN 00001385 002 OF 003 and Prime Minister Erdogan as potential models for the IAF's future. They do not seek a confrontation with the GOJ and are aligned in the Shura Council with the traditional doves, and supported current MB Controller General Salim Al-Falahat in his failed bid to retain his position. ¶7. (C) The fourth trend, however, which, per Abu Rumman, is the base of IAF Secretary General Zaki Bani Irsheid, is said to be clearly allied with Hamas and welcomes confrontation with the GOJ. This fourth trend has aligned in the Shura Council elections with the traditional hawks, in demanding the ouster of Falahat and supporting the hawks' candidate, Hammam Saeed. It was this hawk-"fourth trend" alliance that succeeding in ousting Falahat. ¶8. (C) Note: While many observers draw the analytical distinction between hawks and doves, the key players in the GOJ, as Abu Rumman remarked to Poloffs, see the MB fissures as only between "extreme, or a little less extreme." GOJ officials have told Emboffs that, in considering the threat posed by the movement and its long-term intentions, they do not see a material difference in the two wings and that any distinction is cosmetic. End note. ¶9. (C) Abu Rumman argued to Poloffs that this four-way split in the MB is significant in that it underlines the generational change within the MB and its demographic evolution. The hawkish and pro-Hamas wing is dominated by Palestinian-origin Jordanians, while the dovish wing is made up of East Bank-origin Jordanians. Meanwhile, both of the "younger-generation" streams are more ambivalent about their relationship with the state than the doves who have long led the MB. Struggles over the shape of the Shura Council election have been caused by this dynamic. These divisions affected more than simply the distribution of seats, but have had a profound effect on the MB's internal structure. The number of seats, for example, reserved for Gulf-based Jordanian MB members was reduced from about 10 to 4, because the previous, dove-dominated Shura council feared that the Jordanian ex-pats in the Gulf - largely of Palestinian origin - would further shift the balance towards the Hamas-linked hawks. In addition, the MB has decided to split the positions of Controller General and Shura Council chair; East-Banker dove Abdellatif Arabiyat was elected to the latter, following the decision on Saeed, apparently as a sop to the doves/centrists. Splits in the MB, But Attempts at Accommodation -------------- ¶10. (C) While MB/IAF policy does not show any sign of change as a result of this recent election, a real debate appears to be taking place regarding tactics: the MB's role in Jordan and its relations with the government. The doves and centrists, against open conflict with the government, face the hawks and "fourth trend" who appear to welcome the confrontation on the assumption that Jordan's Palestinian-origin majority, and possibly East Bankers as well, will look to the Islamists to soothe their troubles in hard economic times and in the context of outrage at the continuing plight of their brethren in the West Bank and Gaza. Abu Rumman claimed that representatives from the international MB movement tried to try to broker an agreement between the various Jordanian factions, telling the Jordanian MB leaders that they "had it good" (especially as compared with the MB's situation in Egypt) and that they shouldn't opt for a confrontation with the King and the regime. One possible reaction to the hawks' victory in the elections is the prospect that the doves and centrists might essentially opt out of active participation in the Brotherhood/IAF, their logic being "if you hawks want to politically fight the government, go ahead without us." For the time being, however, such destructive proposals appear to have been rebuffed by Al-Falahat, according to Jordanian daily Al-Arab Al-Yawm. Al-Falahat, for his part, has continued to stress unity in the movement (ref a),and made conciliatory statements about Saeed in an interview with Al-Jazeera, calling Saeed "more competent and capable" than himself. ¶11. (C) In addition to the selection of Arabiyat as Shura Council Chair, the mixed hawk/dove composition of the newly-selected MB Executive Council shows at least a nod towards accommodation of both alliances. Note: Jordanian dailies disagree on the exact composition of the Council. Al-Arab Al-Yawm reported that all newly selected members were doves while Al-Ghadd and the Jordan Times reported a mixed council. End note. Comment AMMAN 00001385 003 OF 003 -------------- ¶12. (S) A Shura Council majority for the hawks was expected, but the council remains divided, and will face a serious challenge in figuring out how an openly hawkish MB, with a pro-Hamas leadership in Saeed and Bani Irsheid, can manage, if at all, the decades-old accommodation between the Islamic movement, government and royal court. While the Islamists, until now, have seen it as to their benefit to remain part of the system and not cross redlines that would force a serious showdown with the regime, the new leadership is likely to take a more confrontational position, while the splits in the movement are more pronounced, with East Bank-origin, Jordan-focused, highly educated, internationally experienced, older generation Muslim Brothers (such as Falahat) reassessing their status as a new generation, of West Bank origin and with a focus on Palestine and Hamas (i.e. Saeed, with the support of the "fourth trend") takes the helm. Meanwhile, the GOJ is sure to continue its efforts to aggressively contain the MB and ensure that the internecine warfare continues. Regardless, the MB and IAF will seek to rebuild their base and present a unified face by using hot-button and emotionally charged issues such as the Gaza situation, public perceptions of stalemate on Israeli-Palestinian peacemaking, and rising food and fuel prices to verbally attack the government, the U.S., and Israel. HALE