POLL SHOWS PM'S POPULARITY STEADY DESPITE ECONOMIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 001030

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2018
TAGS: PGOV ECON JO
SUBJECT: POLL SHOWS PM'S POPULARITY STEADY DESPITE ECONOMIC
WORRIES

REF: 07 AMMAN 4971

AMMAN 00001030 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador David Hale
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: According to a recent opinion poll, public
confidence in the government of PM Nader Al-Dahabi held
steady in the first 100 days of his administration -
reportedly the first time in the history of the poll that a
PM has not suffered an initial drop in popularity. The depth
of this accomplishment is even more impressive given concerns
over the state of the economy. So far, the Dahabi government
has effectively shaped public opinion - and blunted criticism
- by highlighting the impact of international economic
trends, maintaining the inevitability of Jordan's economic
transformation, and softening the blow through a short-term
economic stimulus package. According to the pollster,
Jordanians will now be looking for a more comprehensive,
long-term approach to protect them from further economic
turbulence. As for the PM's overall popularity, it helps
when your brother is director of intelligence and has not
fallen into old patterns of tarnishing the government's
reputation (Reftel). End Summary.

PM's Poll Numbers Steady
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2. (U) A poll released by the University of Jordan's Center
for Strategic Studies on March 18 indicated that after 100
days in office, the level of public confidence in the
government of Nader Al-Dahabi has remained constant.
Sixty-two percent of respondents in the nationwide poll said
that they believe that the government is "capable of
shouldering its responsibilities" - the exact same figure as
when the government assumed office in December of 2007.
According to news reports, this is the first time that a
government's approval rating has not declined after its first
100 days.


3. (U) Supplemental numbers in the poll suggest that the
public is still wary about the future, however. Only
thirty-six percent of respondents said that the government is
able to control rising prices. Fifty-four percent of those
polled indicated that their economic situation had
deteriorated in the past three years - only twelve percent
said that their economic situation had improved.


4. (C) Mohammed al-Masri, the CSS researcher who conducted
the poll, told poloff that despite the hullabaloo in the
press and the general public about rising prices, the PM's
confidence rating is surprisingly consistent. Saying that
the "public relations campaign of the government was
successful," Masri believes that the government showed
political skill when it blunted the impact of rising prices
with a corresponding increase in public sector wages. In
fact, he argues, the price rises may have been oversold, to
the effect that people were generally relieved to find that
the rise in prices was not as dramatic as they thought it
would be.

Will It Last?
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5. (C) Despite the positive reviews at 100 days, Masri
foresees an inevitable decline in popularity as the effects
of subsidy elimination are felt more broadly. He argued that
hoarding of petroleum products and other supplies from the
pre-inflation era, the increase in public sector wages, and
the gradual ripple effect of commodity price rises have
delayed the ultimate impact of the policy. Masri believes
that the government still has some breathing room, but that
in order to maintain its level of support, it must start work
on medium to longer term solutions that will demonstrate the
government's commitment to comprehensive action. If the
government's policy fails to evolve and cement its gains,
Masri argued, social instability could soon follow.


6. (C) Masri also raised perceptions of corruption as a
variable to watch in terms of impacting the government's
popularity. From previous surveys, Masri has noticed that
increases in the perception of corruption in Jordan often
signal a coming decrease in the government's popularity.
When the economic picture darkens, Masri believes that people
start to look for an explanation - either logical or
otherwise. Since most Jordanians are unwilling to criticize
the government's economic policies directly, even to
pollsters, they cloak that criticism in vague corruption
allegations, reasoning that "there must be an explanation"
for their economic situation. The more the impact of price
increases becomes evident to individuals, the more Masri
expects questions concerning the behavior and connections of

AMMAN 00001030 002.2 OF 002


high government officials as ordinary citizens cast about for
an explanation.

Comment
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7. (C) Even the most cynical of our contacts recognize that
the government-led economic reforms were necessary and
inevitable. There is continuing concern that the poorest
citizens of Jordan are slipping through the cracks, but only
the Islamic Action Front (whose paltry influence affords it
considerable rhetorical space without any corresponding
responsibility) is calling for a return to the status quo
ante of subsidies. Jordanians realize that there is no going
back, but they will still expect a great deal from the
government in the months to come. The PM's achievement is
impressive, but the challenges remain daunting.
HALE