THE RETURN OF AHMED OUYAHIA - FUTURE PRESIDENT ?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ALGIERS 000509 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2018 TAGS: PGOV AG SUBJECT: THE RETURN OF AHMED OUYAHIA - FUTURE PRESIDENT ? REF: 07 ALGIERS 1658 Classified By: Ambassador Robert S. Ford; reasons 1.4 (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Former Prime Minister and current head of the ruling coalition National Democratic Rally (RND) party, Ahmed Ouyahia has recently been tapped by President Bouteflika to represent him on several high-profile foreign trips and even representing Bouteflika at the party congress of one of the ruling coalition parties. Bouteflika had brusquely dismissed Ouyahia in 2006, and the former PM has been out of government since. The suddenly elevated profile of Ouyahia has fueled as much speculation about a powerful future role for Ouyahia in Bouteflika's government as it has about why Bouteflika has turned to Ouyahia for these assignments instead of the more obvious choices, Prime Minister Abdelaziz Belkhadem or Foreign Minister Mourad Medelci. Some here speculate privately that these unexpected assignments hint that Ouyahia may well be named vice-president if the Algerian constitution is changed to establish that post. As vice-president, Ouyahia would be the likely eventual successor to Bouteflika. END SUMMARY. AN AFRICA HAND BECOMES BOUTEFLIKA'S ENVOY -------------- ¶2. (C) Ouyahia's recent travels began in early April, with the April 7 announcement on Algerian television that Bouteflika had appointed him as his personal representative to the Africa-India summit in New Delhi on April 8 and 9. Ouyahia then was sent to lead the Algerian delegation at the 12th UNCTAD conference on April 20 in Ghana. Then he was sent by the Presidency as the head of the Algerian delegation to an Africa-specific meeting of the UN Security Council on April 16 in New York. RND spokesperson Miloud Chorfi told us on April 26 that, given Ouyahia's extensive foreign affairs experience, "it is normal that his experience is called upon." Born in 1952, Ouyahia began his career as a diplomat, becoming known as "Mr. Africa" for his expertise on the continent. After joining the MFA in 1978, Ouyahia served in Cote d'Ivoire from 1981, moving on the UN Mission in New York in 1984. He became Algeria's co-representative to the Security Council in 1988, then returned to Algiers to serve as Director General of African Affairs at the MFA. In 1992 he became Ambassador to Mali, helping negotiate a peace agreement between the Malian government and a Tuareg rebellion. ¶3. (C) Ouyahia's career became decidedly more political when he was nominated as President Liamine Zeroual's Chef de Cabinet in 1994, then serving in his first of two stints as Prime Minister from 1994 to 1999. He became the head of the RND party in 2000, serving as Minister of Justice during Bouteflika's first term and passing the aggressive Penal Code of 2001 which is considered tough on Islamist activities. Bouteflika also tasked Ouyahia with working on the peace negotiations between Ethiopia and Eritrea, and a deal was signed in Algiers in December 2000. Ouyahia served a second mandate as Prime Minister from 2003 to 2006, resigning over political differences with Bouteflika's flagship National Liberation Front (FLN) party. A MESSAGE TO THE RULING PARTIES? -------------- ¶4. (C) Press reports have trumpeted Ouyahia's recent travels as "the comeback of the child prodigy." However, according to journalist Rosa Mansouri of French-language daily Le Soir d'Algerie, Ouyahia "is so close to the Army leadership that he was never really out of the picture." Said Sadi, the leader of the opposition Rally for Culture and Democracy (RCD) party, categorized Bouteflika's Ouyahia gambit in blunt terms, saying "Bouteflika is a person who uses and discards people whenever it suits him" and is not sending a political message in turning to the former Prime Minister instead of Belkhadem. However, RND insider Noureddine Benbrahem, also head of the Algerian Muslim Scouts, told us on April 29 that Bouteflika has become slowly fed up with the internal grumblings of a visibly divided FLN (reftel) and may have turned to Ouyahia in an effort to pressure Belkhadem and the FLN to get their act together. At a time of popular discontent about unemployment and uncertainty over an as-yet unannounced third term drive for Bouteflika, Mansouri ALGIERS 00000509 002.2 OF 002 conceded that, with his reputation for organization and efficiency, there was no one better than Ouyahia "to create the perception of stability." COMMENT: BORN WITH A MOUSTACHE -------------- ¶5. (C) In popular parlance, Ouyahia and his RND are often referred to cynically as "born with a moustache" - political entities that emerged fully prepared from within the FLN's historical single-party machine rather than developing outside of it as an independent force. Given Ouyahia's tough stance on Islamists dating back to his first tour as Prime Minister in the 1990s, and the economic woes Algeria suffered during his Prime Ministerial tours, Ouyahia is not the most popular political figure in Algeria. His surprise speech at the opening of the (Muslim Brotherhood) Movement for a Society of Peace (MSP) party congress on April 29 was an interesting exercise in political outreach, Algerian style. Ouyahia extended an olive branch to the MSP by praising key figures of the party's past and called MSP leader Abujarra Soltani "my dear brother and partner" when relations between the two men have not always been warm. No representative of the FLN spoke at the opening of the MSP congress, by contrast. Ouyahia's name is one of those many believe to be on a short list of candidates for vice-president, should the rumored constitutional amendment to create the position actually take place. If he were named vice-president, he would be the strong favorite to replace Bouteflika whenever Bouteflika leaves Mouradia Palace. FORD