MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001495 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused October 22 news coverage on China's Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait Vice Chairman Zhang Mingqing, who was attacked by some DPP supporters in Tainan Tuesday; on a Taiwan navy S-70C anti-submarine helicopter, which crashed near Hualien Tuesday; and on the continuing probe into former first family's money laundering case. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an editorial in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" criticized President Ma Ying-jeou's remarks Tuesday that "there will be no war in the Taiwan Strait in the next four years." The article said since Ma has surrendered himself to China, the chances are certainly slim for Beijing to launch a war to annex Taiwan. An editorial in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily," however, said the key to peace in the Taiwan Strait lies with the United States. "Without the United States, no matter how Ma tilts toward China, he will face the embarrassing situation of China using force to press Taiwan for surrender," the article concluded. End summary. A) "With [Taiwan] Surrendering Itself, Surely There Will Be No War across the Taiwan Strait" The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 700,000] editorialized (10/22): "... Given that President Ma has stripped the Republic of China or Taiwan of its sovereignty, placed cross-Strait relations ahead of everything else, and followed the lead of China in every decision he made, it is not without the possibility that 'there will be no war across the Taiwan Strait in the next four years.' Since President Ma has surrendered himself to China, does China still need to launch a war to annex Taiwan? Nevertheless, we must not mistakenly believe that Taiwan and China will get along with each other on an even footing and it will mark the beginning of permanent peace in the Taiwan Strait. When Taiwan's sovereignty is gradually assimilated into [that of] China, Taiwan is at most the 'Taiwan Special Administrative Region' or 'Taiwan Autonomous Region.' Should this be the case, Taiwan will degenerate into a helpless victim sitting on China's chopping block; once the Taiwan people express even the slightest discontent, the People's Liberation Army will come to suppress and quell the uprisings in Taiwan. It will be China's internal affairs, not a war between two countries. Could this be what President Ma really meant when he said there will be no war in the Taiwan Strait?" B) "No War in the Taiwan Strait" The mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 520,000] editorialized (10/22): "... We believe that there will be no war in the Taiwan Strait in the next four years. Given that there was no war [when Taiwan was under the governance] of the two anti-China ex-presidents -- Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, how can there possibly be war when the pro-China Ma [Ying-jeou is in office?] Thus the key does not lie with the fact of whether Taiwan's president is for or against China, but with the United States. There will be war [in the Taiwan Strait] if the United States sells out Taiwan, whose president happens to be pro-China, and Taiwan refuses to yield. "Having figured out the [logic], Ma, as a hedge move, must therefore strengthen [Taiwan's] relations with the United States in the process of tilting toward China when mapping his national security policy and his grand strategy. Without the United States, mo matter how Ma tilts toward China, he will face the embarrassing situation of China using force to press Taiwan for surrender. ..." YOUNG