MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN ARMS DEALS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001066 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - NIDA EMMONS DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN ARMS DEALS ¶1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their July 19-21 news coverage on the flash floods and landslides triggered by Tropical Storm Kalmaegi in central and southern Taiwan last Friday and the agricultural losses Taiwan has suffered; on President Ma Ying-jeou's sliding approval rating; on the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) joint military exercise; and on the results of this year's university entrance examination. Almost all papers reported the remarks by State Department Spokesman Sean McCormack last Friday that the U.S.' policy on arms sales to Taiwan remains unchanged. ¶2. The Chinese-language papers gave extensive editorial coverage to the current state of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan over the weekend. An editorial in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" criticized President Ma Ying-jeou's cross-Strait and defense policy for creating worries the United States and compromising Taiwan's national security. An editorial in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" speculated that the alleged freeze of the U.S.-Taiwan arms sales resulted from the United States' change of strategic thinking recently regarding cross-Strait relations. An editorial in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" discussed the subtle connection between U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and improved cross-Strait relations. The article said the Ma Administration will certainly not be happy to see the originally close military exchanges between Taiwan and the United States be weakened by improved cross-Strait ties. An editorial in the pro-unification "United Daily News" said that now may be the perfect opportunity for both Washington and Taipei to discuss and ponder "reasonable" arms sales. A separate "China Times" op-ed piece said the Bush Administration's alleged suspension of arms sales to Taiwan not only poses a great challenge to the Ma Administration, but also had a negative impact on restoring mutual trust between Taipei and Washington. An editorial in the pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" urged the Ma Administration to show Taiwan's determination to defend itself and maintain the arms procurement policy in the face of China's political and military threat. End summary. A) "Seeking Benefits for China and Murdering Taiwan" The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 700,000] editorialized (7/19): "... It is a well-known fact that President Ma [Ying-jeou] emphasized in his inaugural speech that 'we want to strengthen the cooperative relations with the United States, a security ally and trade partner;' 'we have the determination to defend Taiwan; [we] will put up a reasonable defense budget and procure necessary defensive weapons.' These words were meant for the ears of the United States only. At the same time, however, the Ma Administration was eager to beg China for direct charter flights and [let Mainland Chinese] tourists come to Taiwan. As a result, [the Ma Administration] hoped that the United States would suspend its arms sales to Taiwan in an effort not to upset China and thereby hinder negotiations between Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and China's Association for Relations across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS). Isn't the Ma Administration's behavior equivalent to telling the United States that during President Ma's governance, 'cross-Strait relations outweigh national security?' ... "Within a short period of two months, President Ma has revealed his shortcoming of being incapable of running a country. But Ma's blueprint for governance is also unveiled. What is Ma's blueprint of governance? In our view, [Ma's plan] is to distance Taiwan from its allies such as the United States and Japan, which are helpful for Taiwan in maintaining its status as a sovereign state, and to regard China, which tries all means to annex Taiwan, as the mother country. Therefore, each of the Ma Administration's policies is pointing to 'the great deed of peaceful unification of both sides of the Strait.' ..." B) "The United States' Freeze of Arms Sales and Its Latest Change of Strategy" The mass-circulation "Apple Daily" [circulation: 500,000] editorialized (7/19): "... It appears that U.S. officials, think tanks, and senior military officials have reached several consensuses for the time being and have changed their ideas regarding the usual strategies toward China and Taiwan. First, Taiwan has lost its ability to provoke China and [challenge] the United States' definition of the status-quo. Second, perhaps the United States does not need Taiwan to play the strategic role of containing or blocking China. Third, after the United States has frozen its arms sales [to Taiwan], Taiwan is forced to tilt toward China even more. This is in the United States' interests, because it defuses a war [that the United States might fight] with China and benefits both the United States and China. Fourth, when cross-Strait relations are improving, the chances rise that any new types of weapons that the United States sells to Taiwan will fall into China's hands. Fifth, as long as China does not use force against Taiwan, the United States will win both face and substance. The peaceful unification between both sides of the Taiwan Strait will arrive eventually, and there is no need to fight a war across the Strait. Such a development will benefit both the Untied States and China. ..." C) "A Subtle Connection between U.S.-Taiwan Arms Deals and the Opening of Cross-Strait Economic Trade [Exchanges]" The centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 300,000] editorialized (7/19): "... First, no one will deny that cross-Strait relations are improving. Given such a climate, it is really difficult to imagine that both sides of the Taiwan Strait will possibly resort to arms again. Even so, one cannot say with certainty that both sides have [each other's] promise of 'eternal peace.' What really matters now is not whether both sides will sign a peace accord but the fact that there are still significant differences that remain to be solved between both sides in terms of many basic issues. One of the evident examples are the arguments triggered by the title - 'Chinese Taipei' - that Taiwan's Olympic team will use. Taiwan anticipates greater 'international space,' but it cannot possibly put all its hopes on Beijing's 'goodwill.' As a result, the answer to the question whether Taiwan has had sufficient 'sense of security' remains negative. "Also, for the United States, arms deals between Taiwan and the United States may only involve Washington's overall strategic considerations in the Asia-Pacific region. But for Taiwan, they also include more psychological factors. The arms procurements are not only about the United States' security commitment to Taiwan, rather they also have repercussions on changes in the substantive relations between Washington and Taipei. In other words, it will certainly not be something that the Ma Administration is happy to see if the originally close cooperative military relations between Taiwan and the United States are weakened by improved cross-Strait ties. ..." D) "Taiwan-U.S. Arms Deals: Pass [Condoleezza] Rice's Remarks onto [Timothy] Keating" The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation 400,000] editorialized (7/19): "... It is understandable that the United States does not want to engage in conflicts with Beijing because of provocation by Taiwan independence activists. But since Washington agrees with the policy adopted by Taiwan's new administration to [push for] peace across the Strait, it cannot overlook the military sector's function in maintaining such a new [cross-Strait] development. As a matter of fact, there is no way that the United States will provide sufficient offensive weaponry to Taiwan. That is why Taiwan's armaments have always stayed at the defensive level, or even a level that is symbolically significant in terms of political psychology. Such a level must be retained even when it is 'very, very, very unlikely to have conflict across the Strait.' For Keating, therefore, his ideas may be that there is no need for arms sales, as there will be no war [across the Strait]. But judging from Taiwan's perspective, the goal of arms procurement has never been to start a war, and yet arms procurement is an indispensible element for Taiwan's sovereignty. Naturally, for the Taiwan society, the interaction between arms sales [by the United States] and arms procurements [by Taiwan] is also an important indicator for Taipei-Washington relations. "Taiwan's efforts to maintain reasonable armaments are an important political support for peaceful exchanges across the Taiwan Strait. It will be a plus for Beijing if Taiwan can use reasonable arms procurements to maintain the psychological security of its society. Perhaps Keating believes that [Washington] does not need to sell weapons to Taiwan to create any variables to the new situation across the Taiwan Strait. But he must not exclude [the possibility that] reasonable arms procurements are conducive for maintaining such a new situation. In this vein, now may be the best opportunity for both Taiwan and the United States to ponder carefully 'reasonable arms procurements/arms sales.' ..." E) "A Significant Test to the Ma Administration's Arms Sales Policy" Lin Cheng-yi, a research fellow at the Institute of European and American Studies of Academia Sinica, opined in the centrist, KMT-leaning "China Times" [circulation: 300,000] (7/19): "... The [reason that the] Bush Administration has different opinions regarding arms sales to Taiwan is a mixture of discontent with Taiwan's delay of arms sales in the past and out of the consideration that cross-Strait relations are improving dramatically. ...Although the United States government's [decision] to sell arms to Taiwan is made by interagency [review], [the decision] is based uon Taiwan's defense needs and the United States Department of Defense's professional judgment. Now, apparently political judgment trumps military judgment, which is against the spirit of the 'Taiwan Relations Act.' ... "The future development of U.S.-Taiwan arms sales depends on Taipei's policy and the communication of messages. Taiwan either chooses peaceful unification or rejects arms procurement, and the United States is in a passive state, instead of taking the initiative. However, [judging from] President Ma Ying-jeou's strategy of declaring [Taiwan's upholding] 'no unification and no independence' while asking China for 'no use of force', and [demanding] that the Legislative Yuan set three percent of [Taiwan's] GDP as the defense budget, Taiwan and the United States have more convergence than divergence in terms of national defense and security. ... "[U.S.] President [George W.] Bush's procrastination regarding Congressional the notification of arms sales to Taiwan has caused various speculations in the United States and Taiwan concerning the relations between the two [Taiwan and the United States] and concerning cross-Strait relations. This in turn increases the chance that both [Taiwan and the United States] will want to evaluate the [arms sales] further and disadvantages the resumption of mutual trust between the United States and Taiwan. The call against armaments and arms procurement might appear again [in Taiwan] when Taiwan internally, facing economic difficulties, would like to save the money intended for arms procurement from the United States and use the money for Taiwan's infrastructure and social welfare. Future U.S.-Taiwan arms sales might be affected by the arrangement of 'military confidence-building measures' across the Taiwan Strait. ..." F) "Arms Freeze is Wake-Up Call" The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 20,000] editorialized (7/21): "... Keating's confirmation of Bush's temporary suspension of arms sales, which will affect items from diesel-electric submarines to advanced attack helicopters as well as advanced F-16 C/D fighter jets, has huge implications for Ma and his right-wing KMT government and for our future security. ... Even after Ma won the March 22 presidential election, his ambiguous position on whether to maintain Taiwan's strong defensive capability against the PRC military threat spawned speculation and the immediate re-opening of party-to-party talks between the KMT and the PRC's ruling Chinese Communist Party apparently convinced Washington that there was no longer any 'clear and present' threat of a military crisis in the Taiwan Strait. "Although Ma then shifted to reaffirm publicly and privately the need to purchase necessary and defensive weapons and stressed that the KMT-controlled Legislative Yuan has already authorized the related budgets, Washington has still unilaterally made its own decision, despite publicly reaffirming that its own policy was 'unchanged.' Another factor behind this shift is Bush's desire to rely on Beijing to help in resolving global and regional issues and 'engage' China. Bush's acceptance of the PRC's invitation to attend the opening ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics displayed this mentality. ... "Ma can help to shift the tide in favor of a lifting of the 'freeze' by showing stronger resolve and by stressing that the current goodwill policies by no means signify the end of any military threat to Taiwan. ... We strongly and solemnly urge President Ma to stand firm on the issues of purchasing sufficient and necessary weapons to maintain Taiwan's self-defensive capability and urge both the KMT government and the opposition DPP to intensify dialogue with both the Obama and McMain camps and provide them with persuasive evidences of Taiwan's need and determination to maintain such a defensive capacity and the importance of this capacity to the strategic interests of the United States, Japan and the world democratic community." YOUNG