CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR ETHIOPIA PASTORAL AREAS

UNCLAS ADDIS ABABA 000867 SIPDIS STATE DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER, DAS AF JSWAN, AF/E, AF/PDPA, OES, A/S PRM SAUERBREY, AND PRM/AFR AFR/AA KALMQUIST, LKELLEY, CTHOMPSON, BDUNFORD DCHA/AA MHESS, GGOTTLIEB DCHA/OFDA KLUU, ACONVERY, CCHAN, PMORRIS, KCHANNELL DCHA/FFP JBORNS, PMOHAN, SANTHONY, PBERTOLIN LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD USDA/FAS FOR U/S PENN, RTILSWORTH, AND LPANASUK NAIROBI FOR OFDA/ECARO JMYER, GPLATT, RFFPO NCOX, USAID/EA ROME FOR AMBASSADOR, OHA, HSPANOS BRUSSELS FOR USEU PBROWN GENEVA FOR NKYLOH, RMA USUN FOR TMALY NSC FOR PMARCHAN AIDAC SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PHUM SENV EAGR PGOV ET SUBJECT: CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR ETHIOPIA PASTORAL AREAS -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. THE FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM NETWORK (FEWSNET) FROM MARCH 10TH THROUGH THE 18TH, CONDUCTED A CONTINGENCY PLANNING WORKSHOP UTILIZING THE HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY APPROACH (HEA) TO PREDICT OUTCOMES FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A POOR SHORT RAINY SEASON IN ETHIOPIA'S MAIN PASTORAL AREAS. RESULTS FROM THE WORKSHOP INDICATE THAT, UNLESS SIGNIFICANT AND WELL-DISTRIBUTED RAINS BEGIN IMMEDIATELY, VULNERABLE PASTORALIST AND AGRO-PASTORALIST HOUSEHOLDS IN SOMALI, OROMIYA, SNNPR, AND AFAR REGIONS WILL SOON FACE SIGNIFICANT SURVIVAL AND LIVELIHOOD THRESHOLD GAPS. THIS INCLUDES THE CONFLICT AFFECTED OGADEN AREAS. ¶2. THE FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA'S (FDRE) NATIONAL METEROLOGY AGENCY (NMA) AND FEWSNET HAVE ALREADY PROVIDED EARLY WARNING FOR THE PROBABILITY OF POOR SHORT (GU/GANNA/BELG) RAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE WHOLE OF EASTERN ETHIOPIA IN THE COMING MONTHS (MARCH-MAY). FOR PARTS OF OROMIYA AND SOMALI REGIONS, THIS WILL BE THE THIRD POOR SEASON IN SUCCESSION. POOR SHORT RAINS WILL HAVE THE GREATEST AND MOST IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON PASTORALISTS IN AFAR, SOMALI, OROMIYA AND SNNP REGIONS. THESE AREAS ARE KNOWN FOR THEIR HIGH VULNERABILITY TO DROUGHT. DUE TO HIGH LEVEL OF VULNERABILITY, LEAD TIMES BETWEEN RAIN FAILURE AND THE ONSET OF EMERGENCY CONDITIONS CAN BE RELATIVELY SHORT. EFFECTIVE CONTINGENCY PLANNING AND RAPID INTERVENTION ARE ESSENTIAL BOTH TO PRESERVE LIVELIHOODS AND SAVE LIVES. -------------- JOINT CONTINGENCY PLANNING EXERCISE -------------- ¶3. FEWSNET, WITH FUNDING SUPPORT FROM USAID, ORGANIZED A WORKSHOP FROM THE MARCH 10 THROUGH 18TH THAT BROUGHT TOGETHER EXPERTS FROM ALL FOUR REGIONS WITH PASTORALIST COMMUNITIES TO DEVELOP 2-3 SCENARIOS OF LIKELY NEEDS IN THE EVENT OF A SHORT RAIN FAILURE. REPRESENTATIVES FROM GOVERNMENT, NON-GOVERNMENTAL, AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS INCLUDING SAVE THE CHILDREN UK, SAVE THE CHILDREN US, CARE, FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION (FAO),WORLD FOOD PROGRAM (WFP),OFFICE FOR THE COORDINATION OF HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE (OCHA),EUROPEAN COMMISSION (EC),THE FDRE DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS AGENCY (DPPA),REGIONAL REPRESENTATIVES FROM OROMIYA, SNNPR, AFAR, AND SOMALI AND USAID PARTICIPATED IN THE WORKSHOP. SCENARIOS INCLUDED THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT LEVELS OF RAIN FAILURE, PLUS THE EFFECTS OF REDUCED MARKET ACCESS IN PARTS OF SOMALI REGION. THE OBJECTIVE WAS TO PROVIDE CRITICAL AND TIMELY INFORMATION THAT CAN SERVE AS AN INPUT TO GOVERNMENT-LED CONTINGENCY PLANNING. ¶4. CONTINGENCY PLANNING SHOULD BE BASED UPON RELIABLE ESTIMATES OF THE LIKELY SCALE OF NEED. DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF HEA BASELINE PROFILES IN OROMIYA'S PASTORALIST LIVELIHOOD ZONE, HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY BASELINE DATA IS NOW AVAILABLE FOR ALL THE AFFECTED AREAS. [BASELINE PROFILES FOR AFAR, SOMALI, AND SNNPR HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.] THE OPPORTUNITY EXISTED FOR THE FIRST TIME TO DEVELOP SUCH ESTIMATES FOR ALL THE POTENTIALLY AFFECTED AREAS USING A COMMON LIVELIHOODS-BASED ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY - THE HEA. THIS IS NOW THE OFFICIALLY ACCEPTED METHOD FOR ESTIMATING EMERGENCY NEEDS IN ETHIOPIA. ¶5. HEA IS A UNIQUE LIVELIHOODS-BASED FRAMEWORK DESIGNED TO PROVIDE A CLEAR AND ACCURATE REPRESENTATION OF THE INSIDE WORKINGS OF HOUSEHOLD ECONOMIES. THIS PICTURE CAN BE USED FOR A WIDE RANGE OF PURPOSES, INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT PLANNING, EMERGENCY RESPONSE, EARLY WARNING, POVERTY ANALYSIS AND REDUCTION, AND POLICY ANALYSIS. -------------- -- HOUSEHOLD ECONOMY APPROACH (HEA) TO CONTINGENCY PLANNING -------------- -- ¶6. FEWSNET DEVELOPED TWO MAIN SCENARIOS, ONE FOR 'BAD' RAINS OR 50-60 PER CENT OF NORMAL, AND ONE FOR 'VERY BAD' RAINS OR 20-30 PER CENT OF NORMAL. BOTH SCENARIOS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO SHOW THE IMPACT OF REDUCTIONS TO MARKET ACCESS FOR INSECURE AREAS IN THE SOMALI REGION. BASIC PARAMETERS FOR EACH SCENARIO WERE DEVELOPED BY LIVESTOCK EXPERTS ALONG WITH HEA PRACTIONERS AND INCLUDED INPUTS SUCH AS THE EXPECTED LEVEL OF MILK OUTPUT, LIVESTOCK MORTALITY, AND LIVESTOCK PRICES. THE ANALYSIS ALSO CONSIDERED THE DIFFERENT TYPES OF COPING STRATEGIES THAT MAY BE EMPLOYED LIKE INCREASED LIVESTOCK SALES AND/OR SLAUGHTERED AND INCREASES IN CHARCOAL COLLECTION. ¶7. HEA ANALYSIS USES A DUAL PROTECTION THRESHOLD MODEL TO EXPRESS VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS AND TO GUIDE RESPONSE. THE LIVELIHOODS PROTECTION THRESHOLD IS THE LINE BELOW WHICH AN INTERVENTION IS REQUIRED IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN EXISTING LIVELIHOOD ASSETS AND STRATEGIES. IT REPRESENTS THE TOTAL INCOME REQUIRED TO SUSTAIN LOCAL LIVELIHOODS. THE SURVIVAL THRESHOLD IS THE LINE BELOW WHICH INTERVENTION IS REQUIRED TO SAVE LIVES. IT REPRESENTS THE TOTAL INCOME REQUIRED TO COVER: A) 100% OF MINIMUM FOOD ENERGY NEEDS (2100 KCALS PER PERSON),PLUS B) THE COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FOOD PREPARATION AND CONSUMPTION (I.E. SALT, SOAP, KEROSENE AND/OR FIREWOOD FOR COOKING AND BASIC LIGHTING),PLUS C) ANY EXPENDITURE ON WATER FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION. THE THRESHOLDS PROVIDE A LIVELIHOODS GROUNDED AND EVIDENCE-BASED REFERENCE POINT AGAINST WHICH TO JUDGE THE LIKELY OUTCOME OF DIFFERENT EVENTS OR POLICY SHIFTS, AND TO PLAN ACCORDINGLY. THEY SHOW JUST HOW MUCH OF A GAP WILL BE LEFT, AND IN THIS WAY PROVIDE GUIDANCE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE REQUIRED RESPONSE. -------------- RESULTS OF HEA -------------- ¶8. RESULTS FROM BOTH THE "BAD" AND "VERY BAD" RAIN SCENARIOS INDICATE THAT AN EXTREMELY WORRYING SITUATION MAY BE DEVELOPING IN THE ETHIOPIA'S PASTORALIST AND AGROPASTORALIST AREAS. POOR AND VERY POOR HOUSEHOLDS, WHO MAKE UP MORE THAN 40 PER CENT OF THE POPULATION IN THE AREA CONSIDERED, FACE SERIOUS THREATS NOT ONLY TO THEIR LIVELIHOODS BUT TO THE ABILITY TO SURVIVE WITHOUT USING NEGATIVE AND RESOURCE DEPLETING COPING STRATEGIES. -------------- PREPARING FOR AN APPEAL IN ETHIOPIA -------------- ¶9. THE PROCESS USED IN ETHIOPIA FOR CONTINGENCY PLANNING HAS TRADITIONALLY INVOLVED THE COMPARISON OF PAST EXAMPLES OF NORMAL, POOR, AND VERY POOR YEARS (AND THE BENEFICIARY NUMBERS FROM THOSE YEARS) TO EXPECTED CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BEST, MID, AND WORST CASE SCENARIOS. THE HEA SCENARIOS SHOULD PROVIDE EVIDENCE BASED ESTIMATES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SCENARIOS. ¶10. DPPA'S POLICY, PROGRAMS, AND PLANS DEPARTMENT (PPPD) IS RESPONSIBLE FOR DEVELOPING AND COORDINATING CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR THE FDRE. WHILE THE PPPD DETERMINES POTENTIAL FOOD NEEDS, THE REMAINING SECTOR PLANS (WATER AND SANITATION, HEALTH, AGRICULTURE) ARE CONSTRUCTED BY THE APPROPRIATE LINE MINISTRY. THE PPPD THEN INTEGRATES ALL OF THE SECTOR SPECIFIC PLANS INTO A COMPREHENSIVE DOCUMENT. THE FDRE MULTI-DONOR PRODUCTIVE SAFETY NET PROGRAM (PSNP)PROVIDES SIX MONTHS OF FOOD OR CASH TRANSFERS FOR ABOUT EIGHT MILLION CHRONICALLY FOOD INSECURE PEOPLE IN SIX REGIONS OF ETHIOPIA. THE PSNP HAS BUILT INTO ITS DESIGN A 20% CONTINGENCY THAT CAN COVER MILD TO MODERATE SHOCKS ABOVE THE CHRONIC FOOD INSECURITY NEEDS IN PSNP WOREDAS. ¶11. THE DPPA PLANS TO LAUNCH AN APPEAL DURING THE WEEK OF MARCH 31. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE APPEAL WILL INCLUDE RESULTS OF HEA SCENARIO EXERCISES. THE APPEAL IS BASED ON CONTINGENCY PLANNING AND CONSIDERS THAT PSNP PLAYS A ROLE IN THE RESPONSE. YAMAMATO