ELECTION HERALD 6: ANRDF DISENCHANTED WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000852 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2028 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM ET SUBJECT: ELECTION HERALD 6: ANRDF DISENCHANTED WITH ELECTORAL PROCESS REF: ADDIS ABABA 783 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: CDA Deborah Malac. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Afar National Revolutionary Democratic Front (ANRDF) Chairman Salih Ali Hodele alleged that hundreds of ANRDF candidates for local elections have been dropped from registration sheets by National Electoral Board (NEB) personnel who belong to the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) or affiliated parties. Salih said that he led an ANRDF delegation to Addis Ababa to express his constituents' concerns to the NEB and other Ethiopian government officials but must now return to Afar disenchanted and "without justice." Describing the Afar Region governor as "a little dictator" who seeks to stifle the "aspirations of the people," Salih offered a litany of incidents of EPRDF harassment against ANRDF candidates and supporters. Salih said he will report his experiences with the NEB to Afar elders, who will then help determine whether and how the ANRDF will continue to participate in Ethiopia's electoral processes. End Summary. ANRDF History -------------- ¶2. (C) ANRDF Chairman Salih and ANRDF executive members Abdella Mohammed Abdella and Ali Aden Keleita met with Emboffs on March 26 to voice their disenchantment with electoral process in advance of April's local elections. Providing context, Chairman Salih recounted the ANRDF's thirty-year history as a rebel and dissident movement in the sparsely-populated Baracle District of Zone 2 the Afar Region, including the ANRDF's opposition to the Derg regime and off-and-on conflicts variously with the Ethiopian, Eritrean and Djiboutian governments, culminating in the ANRDF's 2005 decision to (re)join the Ethiopian political process as a registered party. "Even though we had problems with the Ethiopian government in the past," Salih explained, "we decided to return to civilian life and fulfill all our obligations in the interests of bettering our community and livelihoods." A Little Dictator? -------------- ¶3. (C) However, since rejoining the political process the ANRDF has found that the EPRDF Afar Region governor is "a brute, a little dictator who does not respect the rule of law and runs the region like his own kingdom...(and is) killing the aspirations of the people," Salih said. Specifically, Salih charged that regional officials are corrupt, selling portions of safety net wheat for personal gain and falsifying budget reports to pocket ill-gotten gains. According to Salih, the federal government tolerates the misbehavior of the regional officials because it needs them. Afaris are not, however, subject to arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings or other harrassment because, Salih explains, "We (Afaris) are armed." EPRDF Pre-Election Manipulation Alleged -------------- ¶4. (C) Salih said there are 31 woredas in Zone 2 and each woreda has approximately ten kebeles. The ANRDF registered candidates for both woreda and kebele elections with local branches of the National Electoral Board (NEB) and was able to field candidates for 15 of the 31 woredas When registration data was transmitted to the NEB in Addis Ababa, Salih alleged, hundreds of ANRDF names were dropped so that ANRDF candidates are only recognized for four woredas. In response, the ANRDF filed a complaint with the Afar Region NEB offices, but received no response. All members of the Afar Region NEB, Salih said, are "fee-paying members" of the Afar National Democratic Party (ANDP),the EPRDF's Afar Region affiliate. Salih said he and the executive members came to Addis Ababa to plead their case with the NEB but found similar indifference. ANRDF: "They Treated Us Like Dirt" -------------- ADDIS ABAB 00000852 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) "We received no justice from the regional NEB or the federal NEB - they talk the same language," Salih said, adding that "(W)e are poor people who live in a desert environment and we believed the government would respect us when they asked us to join the democratic process. We had to sell our camels to arrange transport to come to Addis Ababa. We went from the lowest officials to the highest officials to make sure we passed our message, and they treated us like dirt." Salih said that his only purpose in coming to Addis Ababa was to express his constituents' concerns and that he would now return home to report to elders and the community as a whole that "we could not get justice." Options Include Armed Struggle -------------- ¶6. (C) Salih said he does not know what the response from the elders will be, but he speculated that it would take one of three forms. First, they could take a long view and accept current injustices as part of an evolution of democracy, choosing to stand whatever candidates they can an accept the results. Second, they could accept the results of the local elections as a foregone conclusion, not further challenge the EPRDF/ANDP and focus their energies on 2010. Or, third, they could reject the political process and resume armed struggle against the Ethiopian government. Salih said he could not prejudge the response and that the ANRDF would "follow what the people tell us." However, Salih underscored, "What (Ethiopia's) leaders are broadcasting on the airwaves is only hot air, not truth. There is no justice - and we have been supportive of this government." Emboffs stressed to the ANRDF leaders that armed conflict is not a good idea. The United States supports and will continue to advocate for, as it has consistently, greater openness in Ethiopia's political process, Emboffs added. MALAC