ERITREA: OPPOSITION GROUPS EXPLORING FORMATION OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000084 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/10/2018 TAGS: KDEM PREL PBTS ET ER SUBJECT: ERITREA: OPPOSITION GROUPS EXPLORING FORMATION OF NEW UMBRELLA ORGANIZATION REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 3101 ¶B. ADDIS ABABA 3016 Classified By: Amb. Donald Yamamoto for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY. On January 9, PolCouns and PolOff met with Noor M. Idris, Chairman of the opposition Eritrean Nahda Party (ENP),to discuss current opposition efforts to form a new, more inclusive umbrella group. Noor explained that at least 11 opposition parties would hold a conference in Addis Ababa starting January 15 to lay the groundwork for a new alliance of opposition parties. The goal of the conference would be to gain consent from the parties for the concept of a new organization and to elect a preparatory committee to move it forward. If successful, Eritrean opposition parties, religious leaders, civil society, NGOs, and some diplomatic representatives would be invited to a conference in 2-3 months where the new umbrella group would be formally established. Lastly, Noor hoped that Washington would send a delegate to the conference or provide a written statement to be read to the delegates in hopes of motivating the parties to support a new alliance. END SUMMARY. -------------- -------------- PARTIES TO HOLD JANUARY 15 PREPARATORY CONFERENCE -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C/NF) Noor opened by stating that representatives from at least 11 Eritrean opposition groups were preparing to hold a conference in Addis Ababa beginning January 15 to lay the groundwork for the formation of a new Eritrean opposition umbrella group after the last attempt, the Eritrea Democratic Alliance (EDA),dissolved in February 2007 (Ref A). The eleven groups included the three parties from Bloc-1, the seven parties from Bloc-2, and the ENP. He also said that Adhanom Gebremariam's Eritrean People's Movement and the Eritrean People's Congress (formerly Eritrean Islamic Jihad) may also be invited to participate. ¶3. (C/NF) The goal of the conference would be to gain formal consent from all parties to the idea of the formation of a new umbrella organization and then to elect a preparatory/steering committee to guide the process. The steering committee would be tasked with 1) drafting a charter for the new organization, 2) drafting the bylaws, and 3) drawing up a list of invitees for a follow-on conference in 2-3 months where the parties would formally adopt the work of the steering committee and establish the new organization. Noor said that the goal would be to invite not only opposition groups but also civil society, NGOs, religious leaders, elders, and diplomatic representatives. Noor suggested that the steering committee would serve as a point of contact for the diplomatic community, coordinate public relations, and in the event the Isaias government fell in the interim, serve as a transitional Eritrean government until a national conference could be held. ¶4. (C/NF) Noor commented that he would be meeting with Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum on January 14 and he intended to ask the Ethiopian government to pressure the parties to ensure a successful conference outcome. Noor said one of the reasons the EDA fell apart was because of a lack of Ethiopian intervention in pressing them to work together. Noor speculated that the conference might last as long as five days, but that if nothing was accomplished in that time frame, there was little hope that the Eritrean opposition could ever come together as a cohesive unit. ¶5. (C/NF) Lastly, Noor inquired whether the United States might send a representative to the conference or provide a written statement to be read to the assembly. He emphasized that any expression of support from Washington would help motivate the parties to accept a new alliance. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) The long-outstanding differences between the ADDIS ABAB 00000084 002 OF 002 opposition groups (Ref A),which do not appear to have been resolved yet, suggests that even if the parties agree to the formation of a new umbrella organization it will remain weak. Nevertheless, this initiative appears to represent the only current way forward for the formation of any real political opposition to the Isaias government and the chance for democracy in Eritrea. Post recommends Washington consider providing a written statement to be delivered at the conference. This may be a good opportunity to send a strong message in support of democracy and good governance for Eritrea and deliver a tough message to the parties to coordinate for the good of the Eritrean people. Post will continue to monitor Eritrean opposition activities and report on the outcome of the January conference as warranted. END COMMENT. YAMAMOTO