ETHIOPIA: CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS TO BE PARDONED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000838

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/27/2018
TAGS: PHUM KJUS KDEM PGOV ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS TO BE PARDONED

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 00004

B. 06 ADDIS ABABA 02284

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Classified By: CHARGE DEBORAH MALAC. REASON 1.4 (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: After nearly two and half years in prison,
civil society leaders Daniel Bekele and Netsanet Demissie,
the final two political prisoners from the Coalition for
Unity and Democracy (CUD) trial, are set to be granted a
pardon and released from prison. Though they are now only
about one month from completing their full sentences, a
looming appeal by the prosecution - and, behind that, the
reluctance by the GoE to release them - would've meant that
they probably faced a longer stay in prison beyond their
original sentences. However, following months of private
pressure from Post and others in the diplomatic community,
coupled with mediation from the Ethiopian Elders, the GoE
finally softened its stance. In a brokered deal much like
that of the CUD leaders released on pardon last summer,
Daniel and Netsanet were offered pardon in exchange for
signing an apology letter to the Prime Minister. Though they
refused such a settlement last summer, now having now nearly
exhausted their legal options and, more importantly, seeing
the writing on the wall telling them that the GoE would not
relent otherwise, they gave in, saying they will "sign
anything that gets us out of prison." They signed the
apology letter on March 24, which was approved by the Prime
Minister on March 25. The pardon appeal then underwent the
rubber stamp process of being heard and approved by the
pardon board and now awaits signature by the President. With
this scheduled for March 28, Daniel and Netsanet will likely
be released from prison by the weekend, thus bringing to an
end the long saga of the CUD political trial. END SUMMARY.

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NO LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL?
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2. (C) Three months after having been found guilty of
"Provocation to Commit Crimes Against the State," and
sentenced to two years and six months in prison (ref A),
civil society leaders Daniel Bekele and Netsanet Demissie
were still in prison, despite having already served nearly
their full term in prison and being eligible for parole. In
nearly all cases, once a prisoner has served two-thirds of
his or her prison, parole is granted and the prisoner
released. However, parole for Daniel and Netsanet was never
considered by the prison commission. There were differing
reports and opinions on the reason for Daniel and Netsanet's
continued incarceration. Many in the international community
were suspicious that the unusual length of the prison
sentence was deliberate, with the intention of keeping Daniel
and Netsanet, civil society's most vocal leaders in the 2005
election, in prison through the local elections (scheduled
for April 13 and 20). Professor Ephraim, the leader of the
Ethiopian Elder group responsible for the release of the CUD
prisoners, blamed the public outcry following the guilty
verdict on December 24. Following meetings with the Prime
Minister, he relayed to Ambassador and Poloffs that the GoE
was livid with the criticism raised by international NGOs and
the media following the verdict, and were taking this out on
Daniel and Netsanet by keeping them in prison. Pastor Daniel
Gebreselasie, perhaps the most unbiased and widely-connected
of the Ethiopian Elders, told Poloff that ultimately it was
the anger and dislike for Daniel and Netsanet by the "people
behind the screen" - Pastor Dan's colloquialism for the
influential Tigrayan Peoples' Liberation Front (TPLF)
hardliners - that were keeping them in jail.


3. (C) Regardless of the reason for Daniel and Netsanet's
continued imprisonment, their court case faced an uncertain
conclusion. Both the prosecution and defense had submitted
appeals to the Supreme Court. The prosecution was appealing
the decision by the High Court to convict Daniel and Netsanet
on a lesser charge, rather than the "Outrages Against the
Constitution" that had been filed against them. The defense
was, of course, appealing the guilty verdict. The looming
Supreme Court hearings - the defense's on March 25 and the
prosecution's on April 3 - undoubtedly hastened the
negotiations being brokered by the Ethiopian elders. By the
time the defense's appeal hearing was heard on March 25,
Daniel and Netsanet had already committed to doing whatever

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is necessary to secure their release, and the Elders
intervened to urge the GoE to delay any court decisions.
Indeed, the March 25 session was inconclusive, with the
Supreme Court bench deciding that "the prosecution and
defense appeals should be heard on the same day," adjourning
the joint session for April 3.

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ELDERS TO THE RESCUE AGAIN
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4. (C) Just when it seemed that Daniel and Netsanet were
doomed to a long stay in prison while the appeals worked
their way though the judicial system, the GoE did an
about-face, suddenly showing willingness to reach a
settlement. As with the initial reason for their stay in
prison, opinions varied on the reason for the GoE's sudden
desire to bring the situation to close. Ephraim had
requested from the diplomatic community to maintain "public
silence" and urge NGOs to do the same. He indicated that
that public silence, while the Elders pressured privately,
led to the change of heart. The international community
believed that with the local elections all but wrapped up in
favor of the ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition, there was no threat to
releasing them now. Pastor Dan again pointed to the "people
behind the screen," telling Poloff that he was summoned by
them on March 7 and instructed to find a way to reach a
negotiated conclusion.


5. (C) Again, all of these factors likely played some role.
However, Pastor Dan's March 7 meeting set off an extended
shuttle diplomacy, with Pastor Dan visiting Daniel and
Netsanet in prison and the hardliners on numerous occasions.
In the meantime, Ephraim was in constant contact with Prime
Minister Meles to elicit his support for an Elders drafted
text for Daniel and Netsanet to sign. The statement,
touching on the Prime Minister's required language, says that
they: 1) accept the High Court's decision; 2) apologize for
their actions; and 3) promise not to engage in illegal
activities in the future. Though last summer they had been
adamantly against signing an apology (ref B),insisting that
they did nothing wrong and that they should see the legal
process through, Daniel and Netsanet finally relented, not
indicating that that they will "sign anything that gets us
out of jail." They did so on March 24.


6. (C) On March 25, the Prime Minister and the "people behind
the screen" gave their approval for the statement. A hastily
convened pardon board meeting, chaired by the Minister of
Justice, rubber stamped a pardon on March 27. The President
must now sign to make it official, and is expected to do so
on March 28. Barring any other last minute bureaucratic
hurdles, Daniel and Netsanet are likely to be freed on March

29.

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COMMENT: GOE WINS SHOW DOWN WITH CIVIL SOCIETY
-------------- -


7. (C) The continued incarceration of Daniel Bekele and
Netsanet Demissie, two of Ethiopia's most influential civil
society leaders, was a thorn in the GoE's relations with many
in the international community. Though simply releasing them
on the basis of the very standard parole procedure was
seemingly the easiest way for the GoE to avoid criticism from
foreign governments, international NGOs and the media, they
refused to do so for several months. This was testimony to
the tremendous threat that the GoE perceives Daniel and
Netsanet to pose. They had been the ring leaders in civil
society's push for transparency, both before and after the
2005 elections. Since their arrest in November 2005, civil
society has been largely cowed and has been silent in the
run-up to the local elections in April. Whether keeping them
in prison to prevent any problems in the local elections -
which the EPRDF has already mostly sewn up - or to "teach
civil society a lesson," as Pastor Dan claims, it appeared
that Daniel and Netsanet were going to face a long prison
sentence. However, much as they did with the GoE and CUD
leaders last summer, the Elders were able to talk both sides
down from their principled stands. Though not the most noble
of solutions, both sides can now move on. The government

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will have a statement that they can use to put Daniel and
Netsanet back in prison, if deemed necessary in the future,
while Daniel and Netsanet plan to put Ethiopia behind them,
as they plan to move to the UK to continue their legal
studies.
MALAC