ETHIOPIANS "SLOWING" WITHDRAWAL UNTIL AMISOM

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003474

SIPDIS
NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPKO MOPS UN SO ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIANS "SLOWING" WITHDRAWAL UNTIL AMISOM
REINFORCEMENTS

Classified By: Ambassador Donald Yamamoto. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (SBU) This cable contains an ACTION REQUEST in paragraph 7.

SUMMARY
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2. (S/NF) Prime Minister Meles Zenawi told Ambassador on
December 31 that Ethiopia is "slowing" its troops' withdrawal
from Mogadishu and Somalia until Ugandan and Burundian
reinforcements arrive for the African Union Mission in
Somalia (AMISOM). Meles said that if AMISOM reinforcements
will not be deployed or will be delayed long, then the
Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) will accelerate its
departure plans. The Prime Minister reiterated earlier
remarks to the Ambassador that an "orderly departure" from
Somalia for AMISOM means that AMISOM forces would depart
first, followed by Ethiopian forces, who would provide force
protection during AMISOM's withdrawal. The Prime Minister
added, however, that AMISOM could survive in Somalia on its
own if its contingents are properly reinforced and redeployed
to the airport and seaport. The Prime Minister cautioned
that after the ENDF leaves, the United States, the African
Union (AU) and others should have contingency plans in place
in case the AMISOM mission cannot survive independent of
Ethiopian support. This would call for United States (and
other) warships to secure the seaport to allow AMISOM to exit
safely. Meles restated Ethiopia's obligation to protect
AMISOM forces. End Summary.

SLOW ROLL
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3. (S/NF) Prime Minister Meles told Ambassador in a private
conversation December 31 that he appreciated the United
States' support for AMISOM and Ethiopia's Somalia operations.
He stated that he and his Chief of Defense Staff, General
Samora, ordered a "slow-down" in the withdrawal of ENDF
troops from Mogadishu to Baidoa, and then to Ethiopia,
pending the quick reinforcement of AMISOM forces by Uganda
and Burundi. When asked about timelines, the Prime Minister
stated that if Uganda and Burundi are not going to reinforce
their troops, or if there is a long delay in reinforcements,
then Ethiopian forces will have to reassess and "speed up"
withdrawal. The Prime Minister asked for information and
advice from the United States on Uganda and Burundi
reinforcements. Military commanders from both Uganda and
Burundi are in Addis, and the Prime Minister said he would
also keep the United States informed if there is a change in
ENDF plans for withdrawal.

OPTIMUM SOLUTION AND OTHER OPTIONS
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4. (S/NF) The Prime Minister reiterated his comments to the
Ambassador from a December 22 private conversation that the
only way to minimize risk to, and maximize the safety of,
AMISOM forces upon Ethiopia's departure would be through an
"orderly departure," which would entail AMISOM departing
first, followed by the Ethiopians, who would protect their
flank. Such an "orderly departure" would meet Ethiopia's
obligation to President Museveni to protect the safety of
Ugandan troops and ensure their safe exit, Meles said. The
Prime Minister reiterated to the Ambassador that, though it
would be high risk, AMISOM operations could in Somalia could
continue if two conditions are met: first, AMISOM must be
reinforced quickly; and second, AMISOM must redeploy to the
airport and seaport.


5. (S/NF) Should AMISOM prove incapable of holding off
extremists in the wake of Ethiopia's departure from Mogadishu
and require emergency evacuation, Prime Minister Meles
suggested that United States and other warships could secure
the seaport to assist the departure of AMISOM forces. The
burden of supporting AMISOM's withdrawal would then fall on
the countries whose warships are patrolling the Somali coast,
Meles added.


6. (S/NF) During the Ambassador's December 22 private meeting
with Meles, the Prime Minister had said that the reason for

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AMISOM to stay in Somalia would be the signal the
international community's commitment to stabilizing Somalia
and to avoid an extremist take-over of the country. Further,
AMISOM's continued presence would signal to all Somali
stakeholders that AMISOM would likely fold into a United
Nations peacekeeping operation in the near future, and also
that the Djibouti accords can be implemented with a new
government of national unity that would more effectively
reach out to other clans and former Islamic Court members.

COMMENT/ACTION REQUEST
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7. (S/NF) Prime Minister Meles underscored his responsibility
to President Museveni to protect Ugandan troops in AMISOM
operations. Meles has slowed down ENDF withdrawals based on
this obligation. Nevertheless, time is short and the ENDF
will soon speed up its departure plans if additional AMISOM
troops are not forthcoming soon. Public frustration at home
and growing opposition within the ruling Ethiopian People's
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is forcing Meles to
ensure that Ethiopian forces are out in an expeditious
manner. ACTION REQUEST: Please advise what information we
can pass to the Ethiopians on when, and if, AMISOM will be
reinforced, and the timeline. End Comment/Action Request.
YAMAMOTO