TFG PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL ON SOMALIA'S FUTURE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003469

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2018
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET
SUBJECT: TFG PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL ON SOMALIA'S FUTURE

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (S/NF) Summary. Somalia Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) presidential hopeful and former Ambassador Dr. Yusuf
Omar Al-Azhari told the Ambassador on December 26 that the
Ethiopian government was supportive of his candidacy to
replace former TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf, however, he did
not know if the TFG parliament would be supportive.
Al-Azhari insisted that the only way for the TFG to continue
to exist was for Washington to provide direct financial
support to the TFG to pay salaries. Otherwise, he said,
Somalia will fall into chaos, and al-Shabaab will take over
most of the country. End Summary.

Ethiopian Government Supportive of Al-Azhari
--------------


2. (S/NF) Al-Azhari told the Ambassador that Ethiopian State
Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr. Tekeda Alemu and the
Ethiopian government were supportive of his candidacy for TFG
president, and that Yusuf,s departure was good news.
Al-Azhari stressed that he supports TFG Prime Minister Hassan
Hussein "Nur Adde" and his cabinet selection. But said he
was realistic, and was not certain the TFG parliament would
support him. The 275 additional parliamentarians to be added
(as required by the Djibouti Accord) will be the "hard-line"
wing who are aligned to the extremists. Sheikh Sharif was
not the authority of the group, he was only a "front" for the
"hard-liners", Al-Azhari said.

Three Scenarios for Somalia
--------------


3. (S/NF) Al-Azhari saw only three scenarios for the near
future in Somalia:


4. (S/NF) First, the optimum solution was for Washington to
convince the Ethiopians to stay, which means the United
States must pay the Ethiopians and/or work with them to stay.
Once the Ethiopians leave, Al-Azhari asserted that AMISOM
would be "chewed up". If AMISOM takes a defensive posture it
would be a "disaster." They must have reinforcements and be
aggressive and attack, but in the end unless there are more
troops, AMISOM will fail. He added that it was unrealistic
for the Ethiopians to stay, so Al-Azhari said there were two
other possibilities or outcomes.


5. (S/NF) Second, the United States help to pay the
salaries of the TFG forces, and secures support from the Arab
League, particularly Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, to
pay TFG civil servant salaries. The Ambassador noted that
Washington had tried this without much success, but Al-Azhari
thought if Washington tried harder, the Arabs would listen.
Al-Azhari noted that thus far, the Ethiopians have trained
more than 4,000 TFG forces, and a number of civil servants,
but without salary payments they would join al-Shabaab or
their respective clan militias.


6. (S/NF) Third, if the United States and others cannot pay
the Ethiopian government to stay or pay the salaries of TFG
troops and civil servants, then al-Shabaab would take over,
and Somalia would fall into chaos and violence. In this
scenario, Al-Azhari said we would have to wait until the
future to re-engage Somalia and neutralize the extremists.

Somalia Outlook Bleak Once Ethiopia Departs
--------------


7. (S/NF) Al-Azhari painted a bleak picture once the
Ethiopian military withdraws from Somalia. He said
al-Shabaab has trained up 1,500 teenagers as suicide bombers.
Unlike the Ethiopian military, the Somalis believe AMISOM
will not be as tough and can be overthrown. Al-Azhari
predicted that al-Shabaab would take over 99 percent of
Somalia once Ethiopia leaves. The new 275 parliamentarians
under ARS/Djibouti head Sheikh Sharif are supportive of the
extremists, and Al-Azhari predicted they would stay in
Somalia. The TFG parliamentarians would flee with former TFG
President Abdullahi Yusuf and the Ethiopian military. He
reiterated that the only real solution was for the United
States to provide direct financial support to the TFG.


8. (S/NF) Al-Azhari said "we must fight evil with evil." If

ADDIS ABAB 00003469 002 OF 002


elected president, he would support Sharia law, this would
catch the extremists off-guard and undercut them in his
opinion. Then he would call on the Sunnis to support Sharia
law which, he thought, would galvanize the anti-extremist
Muslims in Somalia. The key will be to use "asymmetrical"
tactics to fight extremists. Further, he insisted that it
was critical to pay the TFG or anti-extremist forces and clan
militias, otherwise al-Shabaab would win for now. He again
urged for a firm commitment by the West to help pay TFG
salaries to fight the extremists after Yusuf resigns.

Comment
--------------


9. (S/NF) Al-Azhari echoed recent comments by Ethiopian
Prime Minister Meles that AMISOM would be "chewed up" if left
alone in Somalia, and that the best way forward was for
Washington and the international community to pay the TFG to
bring order to Somalia. The Prime Minister also noted that
Ethiopia and the United States shared a moral obligation to
AMISOM's security, but after the Ethiopian withdrawal, the
greater part of the responsibility fell to American shoulders
because no one else will be able to provide to the then
isolated AMISOM. End Comment.
YAMAMOTO