TFG PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL ON SOMALIA'S FUTURE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003469 NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2018 TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET SUBJECT: TFG PRESIDENTIAL HOPEFUL ON SOMALIA'S FUTURE Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (S/NF) Summary. Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG) presidential hopeful and former Ambassador Dr. Yusuf Omar Al-Azhari told the Ambassador on December 26 that the Ethiopian government was supportive of his candidacy to replace former TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf, however, he did not know if the TFG parliament would be supportive. Al-Azhari insisted that the only way for the TFG to continue to exist was for Washington to provide direct financial support to the TFG to pay salaries. Otherwise, he said, Somalia will fall into chaos, and al-Shabaab will take over most of the country. End Summary. Ethiopian Government Supportive of Al-Azhari -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) Al-Azhari told the Ambassador that Ethiopian State Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr. Tekeda Alemu and the Ethiopian government were supportive of his candidacy for TFG president, and that Yusuf,s departure was good news. Al-Azhari stressed that he supports TFG Prime Minister Hassan Hussein "Nur Adde" and his cabinet selection. But said he was realistic, and was not certain the TFG parliament would support him. The 275 additional parliamentarians to be added (as required by the Djibouti Accord) will be the "hard-line" wing who are aligned to the extremists. Sheikh Sharif was not the authority of the group, he was only a "front" for the "hard-liners", Al-Azhari said. Three Scenarios for Somalia -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) Al-Azhari saw only three scenarios for the near future in Somalia: ¶4. (S/NF) First, the optimum solution was for Washington to convince the Ethiopians to stay, which means the United States must pay the Ethiopians and/or work with them to stay. Once the Ethiopians leave, Al-Azhari asserted that AMISOM would be "chewed up". If AMISOM takes a defensive posture it would be a "disaster." They must have reinforcements and be aggressive and attack, but in the end unless there are more troops, AMISOM will fail. He added that it was unrealistic for the Ethiopians to stay, so Al-Azhari said there were two other possibilities or outcomes. ¶5. (S/NF) Second, the United States help to pay the salaries of the TFG forces, and secures support from the Arab League, particularly Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, to pay TFG civil servant salaries. The Ambassador noted that Washington had tried this without much success, but Al-Azhari thought if Washington tried harder, the Arabs would listen. Al-Azhari noted that thus far, the Ethiopians have trained more than 4,000 TFG forces, and a number of civil servants, but without salary payments they would join al-Shabaab or their respective clan militias. ¶6. (S/NF) Third, if the United States and others cannot pay the Ethiopian government to stay or pay the salaries of TFG troops and civil servants, then al-Shabaab would take over, and Somalia would fall into chaos and violence. In this scenario, Al-Azhari said we would have to wait until the future to re-engage Somalia and neutralize the extremists. Somalia Outlook Bleak Once Ethiopia Departs -------------- ¶7. (S/NF) Al-Azhari painted a bleak picture once the Ethiopian military withdraws from Somalia. He said al-Shabaab has trained up 1,500 teenagers as suicide bombers. Unlike the Ethiopian military, the Somalis believe AMISOM will not be as tough and can be overthrown. Al-Azhari predicted that al-Shabaab would take over 99 percent of Somalia once Ethiopia leaves. The new 275 parliamentarians under ARS/Djibouti head Sheikh Sharif are supportive of the extremists, and Al-Azhari predicted they would stay in Somalia. The TFG parliamentarians would flee with former TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf and the Ethiopian military. He reiterated that the only real solution was for the United States to provide direct financial support to the TFG. ¶8. (S/NF) Al-Azhari said "we must fight evil with evil." If ADDIS ABAB 00003469 002 OF 002 elected president, he would support Sharia law, this would catch the extremists off-guard and undercut them in his opinion. Then he would call on the Sunnis to support Sharia law which, he thought, would galvanize the anti-extremist Muslims in Somalia. The key will be to use "asymmetrical" tactics to fight extremists. Further, he insisted that it was critical to pay the TFG or anti-extremist forces and clan militias, otherwise al-Shabaab would win for now. He again urged for a firm commitment by the West to help pay TFG salaries to fight the extremists after Yusuf resigns. Comment -------------- ¶9. (S/NF) Al-Azhari echoed recent comments by Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles that AMISOM would be "chewed up" if left alone in Somalia, and that the best way forward was for Washington and the international community to pay the TFG to bring order to Somalia. The Prime Minister also noted that Ethiopia and the United States shared a moral obligation to AMISOM's security, but after the Ethiopian withdrawal, the greater part of the responsibility fell to American shoulders because no one else will be able to provide to the then isolated AMISOM. End Comment. YAMAMOTO