IGAD SANCTIONS SOMALIA PRESIDENT YUSUF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003441 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET SUBJECT: IGAD SANCTIONS SOMALIA PRESIDENT YUSUF ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) foreign ministers met December 21 in Addis Ababa to discuss the political and security situation in Somalia. They praised the Somali parliament and Prime Minister for rebuffing President Abdullahi Yusuf,s recent ham-handed attempt to install a new government. The foreign ministers endorsed travel and asset sanctions against Yusuf for undermining the government and obstructing the peace process. They congratulated the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS)/Djibouti for agreeing to a unity government. A follow-on meeting between the TFG and ARS will be held January 10. The Ethiopian foreign minister reaffirmed that Ethiopian troops would leave Somalia on or about December 31; the foreign ministers urged more AMISOM troops and greater materiel and financial support to TFG and ARS forces to maintain order after the Ethiopians leave. End Summary. IGAD Sanctions President Yusuf -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On December 21 IGAD foreign ministers met in Addis Ababa to discuss continued political squabbling between Transitional Federal Government leaders and the Ethiopian National Defense Forces, (ENDF) imminent withdrawal from Somalia. ¶3. (SBU) Ethiopian Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin, chairing the meeting, spoke for the group when he praised the Somali parliament for endorsing Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein "Nur Adde" and his new government over President Abdullahi Yusuf, who earlier in the month had tried to oust the prime minister. The gathering recognized Somalia,s new foreign minister, Mohammed Mahmud Goala, who was present. The ministers also noted positively the Somali parliament's endorsement of the unity government plan proposed during the November 25 round of Djibouti peace talks. They urged swift implementation. The Djiboutian foreign minister announced another round of peace talks on January 10. ¶4. (SBU) The ministers endorsed the immediate sanctioning of President Yusuf for his effort to oust the prime minister. Kenya, Djibouti, and Uganda in particular urged tough communique language, and encouraged other international organizations, specifically the AU and UN, also to consider sanctioning Yusuf. Separately, the Kenyans told us they were gathering data on Yusuf,s assets and his associates, but would not commit to a date for sanctions. ¶5. (SBU) On the security situation, Seyoum reiterated several times that the Ethiopian pull-out from Somalia was "irreversible," and would begin on or about December 31 and take no more than five days. He said some Ethiopian troops had already begun to leave Mogadishu. Seyoum was disappointed recent meetings in New York had failed to secure a commitment on a UN peacekeeping operation. There was consensus among the ministers that if Uganda's troops withdrew along with Ethiopia's, violence would escalate destroying all hope for a UN force or political settlement in the future. Ugandan FM Sam Kutesa urged the Ethiopians to withdraw in a "responsible" manner, to avoid a precipitous collapse of Mogadishu's fragile security. He also warned that AMISOM,s mandate had to be modified if it were to make and keep peace in Mogadishu. Kutesa noted that to remain in Somalia, "there must be Transitional Federal Institutions to support," and that "Uganda's decision to stay was reversible." Seyoum and others urged AU chairman Lamamra to rush newly pledged Ugandan and Burundian troops to Mogadishu, saying he understood the troops were ready and could be flown in within days. Lamamra recounted Nigerian President Obasanjo,s promise of an immediate battalion. ¶6. (SBU) Seyoum also urged IGAD countries and international donors to take immediate steps to bolster the TFG,s capacity to defend itself, particularly by supplying security forces with salaries and weapons. Djibouti agreed, saying that Prime Minister Nur Adde told him the TFG could gather 6,000 troops and the ARS 3,000, if only there were vehicles, cash and supplies to support them. Seyoum, referring to an internal UNDPKO paper which presented three scenarios for Somalia, mooted the possibility Mogadishu's security would not deteriorate after Ethiopia's pull-out; he cited an internal UN memorandum suggesting one result might be new ADDIS ABAB 00003441 002 OF 002 opportunities for national reconciliation. Privately, Seyoum told the Deputy Special Representative to the Secretary General for Somalia that he was disappointed the UN paper suggested this scenario. ¶7. (SBU) Seyoum's message to the IGAD leaders was clear and unambiguous. His message was Ethiopia is leaving Somalia, and if the international community does not want chaos in Somalia, then the United Nations and the African Union should act. Seyoum said Ethiopia would no longer wait for a peacekeeping force that he did not believe was coming. He reiterated that the ENDF would not serve as a bridge force until more AMISOM troops could be deployed, and that it was a fallacy to think that Ethiopian troops would remain in Somalia until May or June. Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) IGAD's decision to impose sanctions on Yusuf, a sitting African leader, set a historic precedent for Africa, but to have any teeth the member states will have to enforce such sanctions. Nevertheless, IGAD went further than the African Union Peace and Security Council which on December 22 declined to sanction Yusuf because he was a sitting African leader, and instead decided to sanction Mohammed Mahamud "Gamodheere," Yusuf's intended replacement for Nur Adde. ¶9. (SBU) Comment continued. PolOffs from Embassy Nairobi and Embassy Addis Ababa, along with an Italian PolOff, representing the IGAD Partners Forum, and the UN Deputy Special Representative for Somalia, were the only non-African observers who attended the closed session. Therefore, the meeting was a unique opportunity to see the IGAD ministers discuss the issues at close range. As Embassy Addis' PolOff is well known to the Ethiopian State Minister for Foreign Affairs who also attended, it is Post's assessment that the Ethiopian government wanted the USG to hear clearly the message that Ethiopia had to deliver. There was obvious tension in the room between FM Seyoum and AU Commission Chairman Jean Ping and AU Peace and Security Commissioner Ramtane Lamamra, who wanted Ethiopia to delay their withdrawal until more AMISOM troops could be deployed, as well as tension between Seyoum and Ugandan FM Sam Kutesa who wanted a "responsible withdrawal." Seyoum looked all three men in the eye, and insisted that Ethiopia's decision to leave was "irreversible." End Comment. YAMAMOTO