USAU: LAST-MINUTE RUSH TO BEEF UP AMISOM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003399

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/RSA, AND AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV MCAP SO AU
SUBJECT: USAU: LAST-MINUTE RUSH TO BEEF UP AMISOM

REF: USUN NEW YORK 1186

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN A. SIMON, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (U) This message contains Action Requests in paras 6 and

12.


2. (C) Summary: With AMISOM's mandate running out and a
withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from Somalia's capital
imminent, the African Union (AU) and its partners are
spending the final days of 2008 in a diplomatic race to
secure financial resources to beef up AMISOM. Strong
evidence that these efforts are paying off came on December
19 during meetings between the AU's partners and AU
officials. The positive developments included announcements
by both the EU and the UK that they were prepared to
financially support AMISOM's reinforcement, and further
announcements that up to three ECOMOG battalions would be
deployed to Somalia as part of AMISOM and that Algeria would
put 10 aircraft at the disposal of the AU to airlift AMISOM
troops from contributing countries to Mogadishu. However, a
critical element is UN support to sustain the mission over
the long-term. AU Peace and Security Commissioner Ramtane
Lamamra expressed interest in a French/ British compromise
proposal in lieu of a full UN PKO. End Summary.


3. (C) The closing days of the year are seeing a burst of
activity by the AU and its international partners aimed at
securing enough funds to build a more robust AMISOM.
AMISOM's two Troop Contributing Countries, Burundi and
Uganda, have had high-level military emissaries in Addis
Ababa lobbying for equipment, training, and operational
support. Their message has been clear: if international
donors cannot convince additional troop contributing
countries to join the mission in time to replace departing
Ethiopian forces and provide a mechanism to financially
sustain the mission on a long-term basis, they will withdraw
their respective forces even before Ethiopia does. According
to the Burundians and Ugandans, their Ethiopian interlocutors
have told them that the Ethiopian troop withdrawal will be
complete by January 5.


4. (C) At a meeting with USAU Ambassador, Lamamra, who
returned to Addis the morning of December 19 after his
meetings at the UN in New York, discussed his current
thinking on how to forestall an AMISOM withdrawal in the face
of Ethiopia's departure. His plan included four key elements
discussed previously: establishment of a government of
national unity, reinforcement of AMISOM in short order, UN
support for the mission in the long-term, and, as a result of
these three elements, a finite delay in Ethiopia's
withdrawal. Ambassador encouraged Lamamra to mobilize
African support for a UN PKO, which the USG is seeking before
the end of the year. Lamamra asked if the US would push for
a PKO over the objections of the UK, French, and UN
Secretariat, noting that the UN might then drag its feet on
implementing the PKO.


5. (C) As an alternative, he expressed interest in a
French/British proposal (discussed reftel) he had learned
about while in New York. The proposal calls for a two-phased
peacekeeping operation. The first phase would consist of an
interim stabilization force for Somalia, to be followed by a
UN PKO once certain conditions are met. Lamamra suggested
negotiating on the basis of this proposal, but changing it by
making the establishment of a PKO more certain. He suggested
March 1 as the date when such a PKO would come into
existence. He then said the UN could advance funding to
AMISOM in preparation for this PKO, as was done when AMIS
transitioned to UNAMID. Under this scenario, he said, the
force would be supported logistically and financially by the
UN until it was re-hatted and became a conventional
peacekeeping force. Aware that the U.S. is interested in
pursuing a full PKO resolution for Somalia, Lamamra suggested
that the U.S. might want to meet the British and French
proposal "half-way." (Comment: In essence, Lamamra is
suggesting changing the French/British proposal so that it
mirrors a UN PKO in everything but name. End Comment)


6. (C) Action request: Post seeks guidance on whether to
encourage Lamamra in pursuing a compromise approach based on
the French/ British proposal.


7. (C) Later in the day, Lamamra told a group of

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international partners that included the U.S. that the
withdrawal of Ethiopia from Mogadishu should be seen not as a
negative event but as "an opportunity with challenges that
need to be addressed." In a meeting with AMISOM Force
Commander Major-General Francis Okello, AU Special
Representative for Somalia Nicholas Bwakira, and Burundian
Minister of National Defense Lt. General Germain Niyoyankana
in attendance, Lamamra stated emphatically, "The withdrawal
of AMISOM from Somalia is not an option. All our partners
see the disaster that would be created by such a security
vacuum."


8. (C) General Okello then gave a dire report of the
consequences of AMISOM staying on after Ethiopia's withdrawal
without additional reinforcements. In such a scenario, he
said AMISOM's supply routes would be compromised, its
intelligence capabilities lost, factional infighting over
territory and resources expected, and humanitarian assistance
halted. However, Okello concurred with Lamamra that
withdrawal is not an option. Said the General: "I do not
want to discuss withdrawal. It would mean all we have done,
we have done in vain."


9. (C) Lamamra then revealed two positive developments that
suggest support for AMISOM is growing among AU member states.
First, Lamamra shared news that Nigeria's Federal Government
had announced that it would deploy three battalions of ECOMOG
soldiers to Somalia before the end of the first quarter of
next year. Along with the additional Ugandan and Burundian
battalions, that would bring to nine the number of battalions
in AMISOM. The first of the Nigerian battalions could be
deployed as early as January. As reported before, Lamamra
recommends that each additional AMISOM battalion be deployed
in such a way as to replace Ethiopian battalions that are
withdrawing.


10. (C) Lamamra then said that Algeria had committed to
provide 10 aircraft, including five Ilyushin-76s and five
C-130s, to transport African troops being deployed to
Somalia. Doing so would free up resources that the U.S. was
considering allocating to airlifting AMISOM troops and using
them to support AMISOM in another way.


11. (C) Following Lamamra's and Okello's presentations, the
EU's Ambassador announced that the EU member-states had
agreed unanimously to support AMISOM and the EU was ready to
make a financial contribution. He went on to say that the EU
had finalized a decision to contribute 20 million Euros to
support AMISOM in the short-term, and it would also consider
advancing part of a 300 million Euro contribution from its
Peace Fund to pay troop allowances, and build a hospital and
a mission headquarters. The funds from the Peace Fund would
be available during the first quarter of 2009. USAU
Ambassador followed by noting in addition to the support the
US had already promised to train, equip, deploy, and sustain
the additional Ugandan and Burundian battalions, the US had
funding to support the equipping and deployment of one
Nigerian battalion as well. Ambassador also said it was
important between now and Christmas for AU member states to
lobby UNSC members to support a peacekeeping operation.


12. (C) ACTION REQUEST: USAU requests guidance on whether
further funding could be made available to pay for airlifting
the two additional ECOMOG battalions beyond the Nigerian
battalion for which funding is already secured.


13. (C) There are two key meetings related to AMISOM in the
coming days. On Sunday, December 21, IGAD will be holding an
extraordinary meeting in Addis to discuss the political
developments in Somalia, including the recent failed attempts
by President Yusuf to dismiss Prime Minister Nur Adde, as
well as possible IGAD sanctions against Yusuf and other
"spoilers" of the political process. On Monday, December 22,
the AU Peace and Security Council will hold a Ministerial
Meeting. Somalia is on the agenda at that session and
Lamamra said the aim of the Council will be to revise and
renew the AMISOM mandate. Lamamra noted the renewed mandate
would be a short extension (perhaps two months from the
current expiration date in January) in anticipation of a UN
peacekeeping operation supplanting AMISOM in March.

YAMAMOTO