ETHIOPIA: CENTCOM COMMANDER AND PRIME MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000338

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2018
TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER SO KE
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: CENTCOM COMMANDER AND PRIME MINISTER
MELES DISCUSS REGIONAL ISSUES

Classified By: Amb Donald Yamamoto for Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Visiting USCENTCOM commander Admiral
William J. Fallon met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi on February 7 to reinforce CENTCOM's relationship with
Ethiopia and to discuss regional dynamics. On Kenya, Meles
suggested that the United States might look to informal
non-state actors as entities who could exert a positive
influence over the government and the opposition. Meles said
that a near-term political reconciliation with Eritrea was
unlikely unless that government made a decision to live in
peace with Ethiopia. Meles speculated that the status quo
along the border would continue for some time even without
the presence of UN peacekeepers in Eritrea. Regarding
Somalia, Meles noted that there were signs of improvement as
the Somali government was gaining traction with Somali
society and Meles hoped that Ethiopian troops could withdraw
from Somalia before summer 2008. Admiral Fallon discussed
counterinsurgency tactics with Meles and emphasized that a
government cannot win by military means alone, rather the
government must give the population hope to win them over.
Lastly, Admiral Fallon assured Meles that CENTCOM would
continue to remain engaged in the region and work
side-by-side with AFRICOM. END SUMMARY.

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KENYA AN INCREASINGLY COMPLEX PROBLEM
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2. (C) Admiral Fallon, after thanking Meles for his
country's support and friendship to the United States,
inquired about the situation in Kenya where he observed that
the situation was deteriorating. Meles voiced that he was
greatly concerned and that the crisis appeared to be more
complex and challenging than he first thought. Meles assessed
that both the Kenyan government and the opposition were
"going for broke" and that the international diplomatic
intervention had not been as effective as one might have
hoped.


3. (C) In response to the Admiral's question about what the
United States could do, Meles said that there was not much
else that could be done. Meles suggested, however, that one
might look to engage those in Kenya with influence other than
the formal political leaders, such as evangelical groups,
business groups, traditional leaders, and religious leaders.
Meles noted that businessmen in Kenya have more influence
over the government than is the case in most of Africa.
Meles asserted that these entities might be able to exert
some positive influence over the crisis.

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NEAR TERM ETHIOPIAN-ERITREAN RECONCILIATION UNLIKELY
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4. (C) Admiral Fallon observed that from a distance the
situation along the Ethiopian-Eritrean border appeared to be
low-level grinding and queried whether this was an accurate
assessment. Meles agreed explaining that from time to time
the noise level increased, but in actual practice "this
untruce" changes little. Meles said that the diplomatic
aspect was "getting hotter" as President Isaias was pushing
the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE)
peacekeepers out of Eritrea. Meles added it was unlikely
that the current military situation would change and that
Ethiopia could sustain its current deployment posture along
the border for some time.


5. (C) Meles went further assessing that any diplomatic
breakthrough with Eritrea was unlikely and that the status
quo could continue for months or even years. In response to
Admiral Fallon's question about a way ahead, Meles said that
at the moment there was no clear prospect of a way forward.
Meles emphasized that the border was a problem, but not the
defining one. The real issue is the personal animosity
between PM Meles and President Isaias.

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SOMALIA OUTLOOK IMPROVING
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ADDIS ABAB 00000338 002 OF 002




6. (C) On Somalia, Meles noted there had been positive
political progress as the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) had recently become more representative and gained
wider acceptance among the Somali people. He said the TFG
was reaching out to the external opposition as well as to
elements of Somali society domestically.


7. (C) Meles underscored that the security challenges were
related to the political challenges. He said the African
Union (AU) peacekeeping force was running behind schedule,
but he was happy that the Burundians had recently deployed
and he noted the Ugandan forces were a major asset. He added
that Ethiopia was trying to increase the capacity of the
TFG's security forces.


8. (C) Admiral Fallon then queried when Ethiopia might be
looking to withdraw from Somalia. Meles replied that he
hoped the Ethiopian military could withdraw before summer

2008. Meles said that Ethiopia was soon to start training a
third batch of TFG security forces and that with an expanded
AU force Ethiopian military forces should be able to withdraw
to the Ethiopian side of the Somali border.

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ON COUNTERINSURGENCY TACTICS
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9. (C) Admiral Fallon, understanding that Ambassador
Yamamoto had recently given Meles a copy of General Petraeus'
book on counterinsurgency, asked Meles what he thought of the
book. Meles responded that he had read it and that he would
read it again. Meles said the book contained some basic
common sense truths. Admiral Fallon agreed and stressed that
military force was not enough to defeat an insurgency and
that the government needed to work with the people. The
Admiral emphasized that the population must believe that a
better day is coming in order to win them over.

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CENTCOM AND AFRICOM TO KEEP A BALANCED APPROACH TO THE HORN
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10. (C) Lastly, Admiral Fallon assured Meles that although
AFRICOM would be different than CENTCOM, the Combined Joint
Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) in Djibouti would remain
intact and that both commands would continue to remain
engaged in CJTF-HOA and the region. Admiral Fallon stressed
that, "we are not walking off the stage," and that CENTCOM
will have resources and assistance that AFRICOM may not have.
Meles responded that he was supportive of the concept of
AFRICOM, and that his only concern was that CJTF-HOA, "did
not fall between two stools."


11. (U) Admiral Fallon has reviewed this message.
YAMAMOTO