ETHIOPIA: CENTCOM COMMANDER AND PRIME MINISTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 000338 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E , AND INR/AA LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER CJTF-HOA AND USCENTCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2018 TAGS: PREL PBTS MOPS KPKO ET ER SO KE SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: CENTCOM COMMANDER AND PRIME MINISTER MELES DISCUSS REGIONAL ISSUES Classified By: Amb Donald Yamamoto for Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Visiting USCENTCOM commander Admiral William J. Fallon met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi on February 7 to reinforce CENTCOM's relationship with Ethiopia and to discuss regional dynamics. On Kenya, Meles suggested that the United States might look to informal non-state actors as entities who could exert a positive influence over the government and the opposition. Meles said that a near-term political reconciliation with Eritrea was unlikely unless that government made a decision to live in peace with Ethiopia. Meles speculated that the status quo along the border would continue for some time even without the presence of UN peacekeepers in Eritrea. Regarding Somalia, Meles noted that there were signs of improvement as the Somali government was gaining traction with Somali society and Meles hoped that Ethiopian troops could withdraw from Somalia before summer 2008. Admiral Fallon discussed counterinsurgency tactics with Meles and emphasized that a government cannot win by military means alone, rather the government must give the population hope to win them over. Lastly, Admiral Fallon assured Meles that CENTCOM would continue to remain engaged in the region and work side-by-side with AFRICOM. END SUMMARY. -------------- KENYA AN INCREASINGLY COMPLEX PROBLEM -------------- ¶2. (C) Admiral Fallon, after thanking Meles for his country's support and friendship to the United States, inquired about the situation in Kenya where he observed that the situation was deteriorating. Meles voiced that he was greatly concerned and that the crisis appeared to be more complex and challenging than he first thought. Meles assessed that both the Kenyan government and the opposition were "going for broke" and that the international diplomatic intervention had not been as effective as one might have hoped. ¶3. (C) In response to the Admiral's question about what the United States could do, Meles said that there was not much else that could be done. Meles suggested, however, that one might look to engage those in Kenya with influence other than the formal political leaders, such as evangelical groups, business groups, traditional leaders, and religious leaders. Meles noted that businessmen in Kenya have more influence over the government than is the case in most of Africa. Meles asserted that these entities might be able to exert some positive influence over the crisis. -------------- -------------- NEAR TERM ETHIOPIAN-ERITREAN RECONCILIATION UNLIKELY -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Admiral Fallon observed that from a distance the situation along the Ethiopian-Eritrean border appeared to be low-level grinding and queried whether this was an accurate assessment. Meles agreed explaining that from time to time the noise level increased, but in actual practice "this untruce" changes little. Meles said that the diplomatic aspect was "getting hotter" as President Isaias was pushing the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) peacekeepers out of Eritrea. Meles added it was unlikely that the current military situation would change and that Ethiopia could sustain its current deployment posture along the border for some time. ¶5. (C) Meles went further assessing that any diplomatic breakthrough with Eritrea was unlikely and that the status quo could continue for months or even years. In response to Admiral Fallon's question about a way ahead, Meles said that at the moment there was no clear prospect of a way forward. Meles emphasized that the border was a problem, but not the defining one. The real issue is the personal animosity between PM Meles and President Isaias. -------------- SOMALIA OUTLOOK IMPROVING -------------- ADDIS ABAB 00000338 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) On Somalia, Meles noted there had been positive political progress as the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) had recently become more representative and gained wider acceptance among the Somali people. He said the TFG was reaching out to the external opposition as well as to elements of Somali society domestically. ¶7. (C) Meles underscored that the security challenges were related to the political challenges. He said the African Union (AU) peacekeeping force was running behind schedule, but he was happy that the Burundians had recently deployed and he noted the Ugandan forces were a major asset. He added that Ethiopia was trying to increase the capacity of the TFG's security forces. ¶8. (C) Admiral Fallon then queried when Ethiopia might be looking to withdraw from Somalia. Meles replied that he hoped the Ethiopian military could withdraw before summer ¶2008. Meles said that Ethiopia was soon to start training a third batch of TFG security forces and that with an expanded AU force Ethiopian military forces should be able to withdraw to the Ethiopian side of the Somali border. -------------- ON COUNTERINSURGENCY TACTICS -------------- ¶9. (C) Admiral Fallon, understanding that Ambassador Yamamoto had recently given Meles a copy of General Petraeus' book on counterinsurgency, asked Meles what he thought of the book. Meles responded that he had read it and that he would read it again. Meles said the book contained some basic common sense truths. Admiral Fallon agreed and stressed that military force was not enough to defeat an insurgency and that the government needed to work with the people. The Admiral emphasized that the population must believe that a better day is coming in order to win them over. -------------- -------------- CENTCOM AND AFRICOM TO KEEP A BALANCED APPROACH TO THE HORN -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) Lastly, Admiral Fallon assured Meles that although AFRICOM would be different than CENTCOM, the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) in Djibouti would remain intact and that both commands would continue to remain engaged in CJTF-HOA and the region. Admiral Fallon stressed that, "we are not walking off the stage," and that CENTCOM will have resources and assistance that AFRICOM may not have. Meles responded that he was supportive of the concept of AFRICOM, and that his only concern was that CJTF-HOA, "did not fall between two stools." ¶11. (U) Admiral Fallon has reviewed this message. YAMAMOTO