USAU: AU PSC MINISTERIAL TO ADDRESS DRC, SOMALIA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003376

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/FO, AF/C, AF/W, AF/E, AF/RSA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM AU
SUBJECT: USAU: AU PSC MINISTERIAL TO ADDRESS DRC, SOMALIA,
AND MAURITANIA

REF: STATE 128088

Classified By: Ambassador John Simon, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (U) Summary: The African Union,s Peace and Security
Council (PSC) will hold a ministerial meeting on December 22
to address the situations in Eastern Congo, Somalia, and
Mauritania. At this point, ministers from Zambia, Ethiopia,
Algeria, Nigeria, and Gabon are expected to attend. The
current chair of the PSC, Zambian Ambassador Patrick
Sinyinza, indicated there exists much uncertainty regarding
the outcome of the meeting. USG should consider reaching out
to member countries, particularly those sending ministers, to
influence the results of the session. End Summary.


2. (U) Ambassador paid a visit to the Zambian Ambassador
Sinyinza on December 17 to discuss his expectations for the
upcoming PSC Ministerial. Sinyinza had recently returned
from his home country where he had hosted a retreat with
fellow PSC members to discuss PSC interaction with Civil
Society (the outcome of this retreat, the Livingstone
Framework, will soon be made public) and is only now focusing
his attention on the upcoming ministerial. The agenda for
this PSC had been set at the beginning of the month when
Zambia assumed the chair, and the fact that it will be a
ministerial is the result of Nigerian pressure at that time.
As he had in his previous meeting with the Ambassador,
Sinyinza expressed interest in the USG positions on the three
agenda items ) Eastern Congo, Somalia, and Mauritania.


3. (C) On the Eastern Congo, Sinyinza noted that many on
the Council thought it was too early for the AU to address
this issue, given the activity of so many other players, such
as UN Special Representative Obasanjo and the regional
organizations. However, he thought the AU had been silent
too long on the subject. Ambassador delivered the reftel
points, which were well received by the Chair. He only
questioned whether political dialogue with the GRDC had
anything to offer General Nkunda and the CNDP given their
recent military victories and if it was possible to deny
artisanal mining revenue to the negative forces in Eastern
Congo ) he certainly did not think the FARDC could do so.


4. (C) On Somalia, Sinyinza was decidedly negative. He
expressed frustration with the infighting of the Transitional
Federal Government (TFG) and concern that without the
Ethiopian forces in Somalia, the AMISOM troops will be
overrun. He predicted the ministerial meeting would be
limited to receiving reports of actions in the TFG
Parliament, UN, International Contact Group, etc. When the
Ambassador suggested the need for concrete actions to support
the African Union Commission,s efforts to save AMISOM,
Sinyinza noted the PSC could condemn the actions of President
Yusuf, in line with the recent statement of Chairperson Ping,
but he doubted there would be any specific sanctions against
him. He also thought the PSC could call for a UN
peacekeeping operation. He said: &Somebody has to crank the
system, and that is the UN. The AU,s spirit is willing, but
it lacks sufficient resources to make a difference.8 He
noted that at the beginning of AMISOM, the Ugandan troops
were not getting paid. When the Ambassador noted the AMISOM
mandate is due to expire in January, Sinyinza said it was
possible the PSC could renew it at the ministerial, but
thought that the issue was likely too &complex8 to address
at this meeting.


5. (C) On Mauritania, Sinyinza agreed wholeheartedly with
the Ambassador,s assessment that the AU needed to hold firm
to its strong position against the coup, and seemed to concur
that this required concrete actions at the December 22
ministerial, though he had not considered as of yet what
actions the PSC might take. The Ambassador mentioned the
options he had heard previously from Peace and Security
Commissioner Lamamra, which included a travel ban, giving the
Mauritanian seat at the Summit to the legitimate President,
and asking the UN Security Council to be seized with the
matter. The Chair did not think a travel ban would
negatively affect the coup leaders much, since as Generals
&they rarely travel,8 but he was intrigued by the other
measures.


6. (C) Comment: The outcome of the PSC ministerial
meeting on December 22, the last before the new year, is
still very much in play. Outreach to the PSC member
countries, particularly those sending ministers, could
influence the results. Ambassador is scheduled to see

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Commissioner Lamamra on December 19, the Commissioner's first
day back in the office after his trip to New York for the UN
discussions on Somalia, and will press him on how he intends
to make this ministerial meeting productive.
YAMAMOTO