AFRICOM COMMANDER AND PRIME MINISTER MELES DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003242

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2018
TAGS: PREL MOPS KPKO SO ET
SUBJECT: AFRICOM COMMANDER AND PRIME MINISTER MELES DISCUSS
SOMALIA

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DONALD YAMAMOTO. REASONS: 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary. Visiting USAFRICOM commander General
William E. Ward met with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi on November 21 to reinforce AFRICOM's relationship
with Ethiopia, and to discuss regional dynamics. Meles,
focused primarily on Somalia, said the Somali Transitional
Federal Government (TFG) lacked leadership. He envisioned
two scenarios for the near-term in Somalia. First, the TFG
could be quickly reconstituted with the formation of a unity
government with help from the international community, but
Meles thought this scenario was increasingly unlikely. For
the second and more likely scenario, Meles thought it was
probable that Ethiopia would withdraw from Somalia
recognizing that the TFG had failed, and that there was no
feasible political alternative to the TFG. Meles promised
that Ethiopia would not leave the African Union Mission in
Somalia (AMISOM) peacekeepers behind, and he requested
assistance from the United States and the international
community to facilitate AMISOM's withdrawal. Meles hoped
that AMISOM and the Ethiopian military could be out of
Somalia by the end of January. For the immediate future,
Meles looked to the InterGovernmental Authority on
Development (IGAD) summit in December to decide the TFG's
fate. End Summary.

AFRICOM-Ethiopian Relationship Ready to Move Forward
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2. (C) General Ward opened the meeting by briefing Prime
Minister Meles on the current status of AFRICOM, reaffirming
that AFRICOM was committed to moving its relationship with
Ethiopia forward. Meles responded that he was "extremely
pleased" with the bilateral military to military
relationship, and he was confident that the relationship
would continue to remain strong.

The TFG Lacking in Leadership
--------------


3. (C) Meles continued that although Ethiopia lived in a
"tough neighborhood," Somalia was Ethiopia's most immediate
challenge. Meles lamented that the TFG suffered from a
severe lack of leadership, and noted that the TFG had failed
to capitalize on new opportunities to resolve Somalia's
political and security problems. He said he did not see a
cohesive and committed TFG. Meles opined that it was still
possible to reconstitute the TFG, although not necessarily
with the current leadership, if a deal was struck quickly,
and the new unity government was sufficiently "inclusive."
Meles stressed while it was still possible to fix the TFG, it
was increasingly unlikely because its leaders, clearly
referring to President Yusuf, were working hard to prevent a
unity government at the expense of the TFG and Somalia.

Two Scenarios for Somalia
--------------


4. (C) Meles explained that he saw two possible scenarios
for Somalia at this point. First, he said, the TFG could be
quickly reconstituted. If this happened, Ethiopia would be
less eager to withdraw from Somalia entirely. He said
Ethiopia might be able to leave Mogadishu, allowing the TFG
and a peacekeeping FORCE to secure the city, and focus on
security in other areas of Somalia, particularly the south.
He cautioned, however, that the window for this scenario was
closing. He saw little reason to believe that the nature of
the TFG would change from what they have shown in the
previous years. He also said the international community
would need to rapidly respond, but he noted that the United
Nations was over stretched with peacekeeping missions, and
unwilling to become involved in Somalia.


5. (C) More likely, Meles said, Ethiopia would withdraw
from Somalia recognizing that there was no feasible political
alternative to the failed TFG, and "see what happens." Meles
stated Ethiopia would establish a "security corridor" along
the Ethiopian border inside Somalia by developing clan
alliances in that area and working with local allies. Meles
inferred that the groundwork for this strategy was already
underway. Ethiopian troops positioned on the border, but
inside Ethiopia, would conducts raids and other operations as
necessary inside Somalia. At the same time, Ethiopia would

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continue to work with Somaliland and Puntland to use them to
limit extremist activity and reach.

AMISOM Needs U.S. and International Assistance to Withdraw
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6. (C) Turning to AMISOM, Meles asked for U.S. and
international assistance to facilitate the peacekeeper's
withdrawal from Somalia. Meles said the key challenge for an
Ethiopian withdrawal will be how to get AMISOM out of
Somalia. He said Ethiopia had assured both the Ugandans and
the Burundians that Ethiopia would not leave the peacekeepers
behind. Ugandan President Museveni had suggested that AMISOM
withdraw overland in concert with the Ethiopian troops as
they pulled back to Ethiopia, but Meles said he told Museveni
that AMISOM should leave by sea and AIR as they had first
deployed to Mogadishu. He noted that it was too complicated
for the Ethiopian military to escort AMISOM out by land.
Meles said Ethiopian troops would stay in Somalia long enough
to cover AMISOM's departure.

Timing for an Ethiopian Withdrawal?
--------------


7. (C) In response to General Ward's query on the timeline
for withdrawal, Meles said he hoped that AMISOM could be out
of Somalia by mid-January so that the Ethiopian military
could redeploy to Ethiopia by the end of January. Meles
added what happens after that was greater challenge.
Somalia's "jihadist corps" was mobilizing to take control of
all of Somalia, but Meles did not think they would be able to
manifest themselves as they did in 2006. Meles predicted
that they would no longer be able to act as a monolithic
entity, rather new clan alliances would limit the jihadist's
influence. Meles was also concerned that the jihadists might
become involved in piracy, and he feared what that might mean
for Ethiopia and the region at large.

Ethiopia's Next Steps
--------------


8. (C) Meles said for the next few weeks he would continue
to build consensus within IGAD regarding the TFG. Meles said
IGAD will meet again in December to judge the TFG's progress.
Meles admitted that he been trying to influence the Somalia
political process through IGAD, but that some in IGAD,
including Djibouti, were overly optimistic. Meles said by
December IGAD will have seen the outcome of the Djibouti
process. If, as he expected, nothing will have been
accomplished by the TFG then the decision will be easy,
"there will be nothing to be done except to withdraw."
YAMAMOTO